This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from Wednesday's games fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies: Though Thursday features only four games, six of the leagues' top eight scoring teams are in action. Ironically enough, one of the remaining two is featured in the "offenses to use" section below, but that's due to playing in a matchup that will rival the All Star Game for defensive integrity. The eighth team is the Memphis Grizzlies, who score the seventh fewest points per game, and who are in the bottom half of the league in points per possession. They face the Kings, who have surprised everyone with their defensive fortitude. The Grizzlies take the second fewest three-point attempts per game, which plays right into the Kings' strength – the Kings are holding opponents to the fifth lowest field goal percentage in the league. The Grizzlies are also a tough defense, and I'm trying to avoid Kings players Thursday as well (as much as it is possible to avoid two teams with so few games). It's just that the combination of the Grizzlies' shortcomings coupled with the Kings' strengths strikes me as particularly undesirable.
Offenses to Use
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks: We should give credit where credit is due: so far this season, the 76ers are outside the bottom five teams for opponent field goal percentage. They are the sixth worst team there. Directly below them? The Mavericks. Both teams made it inside the bottom five for opponent three-point field goal percentage, tying for fourth - this should help both teams on offense, since they attempt the fifth and sixth most three-pointers per game. Both are inside the bottom 10 for opponent points per game, and though the 76ers are far worse in that category, that difference is primarily due to differences in pace. In terms of opponent points per possession, it is actually the Mavericks who are the worse of the pair, but, again, both are securely among the bottom 10. Though there will be a small handful of talented individual defenders on the floor, team defense will be hard to find in Philadelphia on Thursday night.
While both teams are horrors on defense, and therefore both can be safely targeted for use in daily lineups, these teams are not exactly offensive equals. In fact, the Mavericks are the league leaders in points per possession, and the hold a considerable margin over second place. The 76ers rank dead last.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Philadelphia 76ers
Second game of a back-to-back: Brooklyn Nets
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Devin Harris, DAL (vs PHI), PG, ($4,600): The season is still young, but this is already my third Thursday recommending Devin Harris – he rated "helpful" in my Trust Tracker both previous times. Why do I think this will mark three in a row? For starters, Harris gets to enjoy Thursday's no-defense-allowed game (described above). Furthermore, adjusting for the decreased expectations that come with so few games, Harris could probably produce below his season average of 22.7 fantasy points per game and still earn daily players a profit. Finally, Harris' salary benefits from the "sweet spot off night", whereby his second-most recent game – which is a game DraftKings over-emphasizes in it's pricing algorithm – was his worst game of the season, but he has already returned to form. He followed that season low with a 27 fantasy point showing against an above average defensive backcourt. He has demonstrated that the bad game was simply an outlier, which allows us the opportunity to take advantage of his depressed cost.
Other suggestions: Steph Curry, GS (vs BKN), PG, ($10,100); Lou Williams, TOR (vs CHI), PG, ($3,000)
Shooting Guard
Klay Thompson, GS (vs BKN), SG, ($6,800): At first glance, Thompson has been a little inconsistent lately. In his last four games he twice scored in the mid 20s, and twice scored in the low 40s. But the timing of those low games has brought down Thompson's cost, and the poorer of those performances can be explained away due to a short-term hand injury. Then consider that Thompson broke 35 fantasy points in four of his six games this year, including one game where he topped 50. He has scored 19 or more points and made two or more threes in five of his six games – the lone exception was the game with the hand injury. Thompson's "inconsistency" can be explained away, he sports a cost far below his nightly average, his upside is gigantic, and we have few better options to choose from.
Other suggestions: Ben McLemore, SAC (at MEM), SG, ($3,600)
Small Forward
Mike Dunleavy, CHI (at TOR), SF, ($4,000): Dunleavy can throw up the occasional statistical stinker, but it is his role in coach Tom Thibodeau's rotation that has me intrigued. Because of his defensive abilities, Dunleavy is in no danger of losing court time – he's averaging 30 minutes per game. He is an above average three-point shooter, and he can be counted on for at least a handful of rebounds per game. His statistical inconsistencies stem from the fact that he is more important to the Bulls' defense than their offense. He gets a steady diet of three-point attempts every night, but his total field goal attempts fluctuate from a season low of three to a season high of 15. I shy away from Dunleavy on busier nights, but as my needs decrease for the slower nights Dunleavy's scoring inconsistencies bother me less and less, while his reliable workload and his reasonable floor appeal to me more and more.
Other suggestions: Chandler Parsons, DAL (vs PHI), SF, ($6,600)
Power Forward
Mirza Teletovic, BKN (at GS), PF, ($3,700): When it comes to daily games, I secretly love back-to-back sets. More specifically, I love back-to-back sets for youngish players when they outperform their salary in the first game. Teletovic was going for $4,100 on Wednesday, and his price for Thursday was determined before Wednesday's tip-off. Teletovic had scored under 20 fantasy points in three of four, so the $400 reduction in salary made sense. But then he goes off for 33.75 points Wednesday night, reminding daily players (and probably some DraftKings salary-overseers, if that's a thing) why he cost so much more in the first place. And after it is too late to have any impact on Thursday's salary.
There are some important differences between Wednesday and Thursday here that need mentioning, though the final verdict (I recommended him Wednesday, too) remains the same. Wednesday Teletovic faced the Suns, one of the worst teams in the league at defending the three-ball, Teletovic's specialty. Thursday, he faces a Warriors squad that is among the very best in that category. But Teletovic plays on an injury prone aging frontcourt, and Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez are likely to see less court time on the second night of the back-to-back. This should open up extra minutes for Teletovic, who just the day before reminded his coaching staff how valuable he can be. And, perhaps most importantly, at a salary this low and on a night with so few games, even if he repeats his worst night of the season he should come close to earning a profit for your lineup.
Other suggestions: Pau Gasol, CHI (at TOR), PF, ($8,100)
Center
Tyson Chandler, DAL (vs PHI), C, ($6,200): Don't worry, I'm getting sick of recommending Mavericks' starters too. Fortunately this is the last position in the article, so I couldn't talk about another one even if I wanted to. In case you haven't heard, the 76ers are pretty bad at defense. In fact, they are almost as bad at defense as they are at offense. And none-other than Chandler will be camped out in the lane, ready to scoop up the rebound after every brick. On offense, Chandler is one of the most efficient shooters in the league, ruling the paint for one of the league's best coaches. When the 76ers defense falls apart chasing the Mavericks' many shooters, it will be Chandler waiting in the lane, ready to take advantage of his out-of-position opponent. Chandler is riding a three game streak of double-doubles, and Henry Sims and Nerlens Noel are simply not up to the task of getting in his way, on either end of the floor.
Other suggestions: Marc Gasol, MEM (vs SAC), C, ($7,700)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Nick Calathes (suspension)
Raymond Felton (ankle/suspension)
David Lee (hamstring)
Game-Time Decision
Darren Collison (shoulder) practiced Wednesday and said he will play Thursday.
Michael Carter-Williams (shoulder) will likely come off the bench, but he's expected to make his season debut Thursday.
Nerlens Noel (ankle) is expected to play Thursday.
Alexey Shved (back) missed practice Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
Derrick Rose (ankles) is probable to play Thursday.
Jimmy Butler (thumb) is probable to play Thursday.
Landry Fields (illness) is questionable for Thursday.
Jameer Nelson (hamstring) is expected to play Thursday.
