This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
Daily Excitement
My wife worries that I'm on the verge of becoming a degenerate gambler.
The reason, of course, is daily fantasy basketball.
Mind you, when we got married, I was already heavily into fantasy sports and working for RotoWire. She's been around for more than 20 years of my obsession with everything sport. She saw me running track in high school, at Georgia Tech, and at the University of Michigan. She's been to Vegas with me and seen me on the tables a dozen times. She's seen how compulsive I can get when competing with my best friends, how we can go on 30-hour sessions of playing Monopoly like we're on a poker bender. Yet through all of that, she's never once wondered if I might have a compulsive gambling problem…until Friday, when she asked me if I needed an intervention.
The reason? Daily fantasy basketball.
So, what is it about daily fantasy leagues that so changes the game? Well, first, it's the level of commitment required. In year-long leagues, you pace yourself to an extent. In weekly leagues, you really only have to focus on the day(s) of the week when you can do your FAAB auction and/or change your lineup. Even in leagues with daily transactions, the game is either rotisserie (find out your winner at the end of the season) or H2H (in which the wins are weekly, but add towards a year-long goal). But in daily fantasy, every single night that you play is a championship.
Thus, every night is on some level like a championship game. It used to be, out of a whole season, there were only certain times where I HAD to be locked in. While I might be interested in the results of every game, as long as I had my lineup set, I could pretty much go about my business on any given night and just check the scores and news at the end of the night. So, if wife wanted to watch a movie or kids wanted a bedtime story, I could go into full-on family mode with no problem.
But when I'm playing daily leagues pretty much every day, I have to be locked in and completely on every night or else there's an excellent chance my squad is going to lose. I always appreciated having RotoWire and their breaking news as a source, but now it is absolutely vital that I'm up to the minute on the goings on for every game. I got burned too many times setting my lineup just before going home and going off the grid, only to check in later and find out that one of the guys on my team was a late unexpected scratch. Even on Sunday I missed that Eric Bledsoe was scratched to go witness his child's birth, so my lineup with Bledsoe on it was sunk before tipoff.
And it's not just the risk of having an inactive player in your lineup. If you don't know that the starter is going to be out, you also miss out on the chance to pick up the understudy that might give great value at a lower price. Had I known about Bledsoe's absence, I'd certainly have picked up Isaiah Thomas for two or three grand less and had a chance at his team-high 26 points, five assists, three boards, and one steal for bench prices. Another, even better example, came earlier in the day Sunday when it was announced that Blake Griffin was going to have surgery. I was able to pick up replacement Spencer Hawes at league minimum prices. Hawes didn't come close to matching Griffin's expected value, but for the minimum salary, Hawes' 17 points, two three-pointers, one rebound, and one block were great value.
So, these days, if it's up to me, I've got a laptop or an iPad going, refreshing the RotoWire basketball page and my Twitter feed (@ProfessorDrz) all the way up to gametime for every wave of games. Since most nights there are games starting every half hour, you can see how that'd get old to my wife quickly. But the thing is, if I'm not on it like that, I already know there's a good chance my team isn't as strong as it should be.
The other aspect that has my wife looking at me sideways is the sheer excitement of having a championship game every night. Even after the lineups are set and the guys are playing, I still want to stay locked in to follow the scores because of the odd superstitious feeling that my watching is going to will my guys to play better. And don't mess around and let me have my first wave of players do well…all that does is amp up my attention on the later games. And there's nothing worse than the near miss…the times when you know that a ball bouncing one way or another could be the difference in you winning or losing….or the difference between winning and winning a LOT.
That happened to me last Friday. I had a team that had already played really well and had only one player left: Russell Westbrook. For those that don't remember, Westbrook went bonkers that game. They were playing the New Orleans Pelicans, and he ended up with 48 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds, and four steals as regulation wound down. He hit three free throws to tie the game with less than two seconds left, and my heart started to rise. See, because at that point, my team was already firmly in the top-150 and only about 25 points out of first place. None of the teams in the top 10 had Westbrook, and I had visions of him dominating an overtime-period and pushing my team up to the top. A second later, Anthony Davis threw in a miracle double-clutch three-pointer that dashed my hopes, and I couldn't help going and telling wife how I was that close to a big pay day. A day later, wife would compare my what-if venting to a guy at the casino complaining about how he almost hit the jackpot.
So, my advice for how to do well in daily leagues? Play a lot, because to me, it's only in playing daily that you can get a good feel for the consistently under-priced performers in a given scoring format. Then, make sure that you are completely locked in to current events all the way up to game time when your lineups lock. If something happens after the lineups lock, there's nothing you can do, but if you find out before then, you can be among the small subset of owners that gets to take advantage of the info. And finally, if you're married, try to keep up with the news and enjoy the excitement without letting your significant other realize just how obsessed you are with your squads. Or else you might get sent to Gambler's Anonymous without warning.
Around the League
Blake's elbow:Blake Griffin is out for at least the next three weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a staph infection from his right elbow. He's due to be re-evaluated in three weeks, at which point his return date will be clarified. Jeff Stotts has a great article breaking down staph infections and what this injury means for Griffin.
Fearing the Brow's shoulder:Anthony Davis took a hard fall this weekend that sprained his right shoulder, and he has already missed one game with the injury. He only has one more game this week, and the All-Star break is approaching, so it is conceivable that Davis could rest until the break. On the other hand, the Pelicans are already locked into a race for the last playoff spot out West, so I'd imagine that he'll be back on the court as soon as he is healthy enough to go.
Bledsoe's new baby: As I mentioned above, Eric Bledsoe sat out Sunday's game for the birth of his new baby. He stayed away from the team during Monday's practice as well, but is expected to be available as usual on Tuesday night and beyond.
Chandler's ankle and Monta's hip:Tyson Chandler was only able to play for one minute Monday before exiting with an ankle injury. He was on a tear in recent games, averaging 16 points and 14.2 rebounds over the three outings leading into Monday, but he is now done until after the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Monta Ellis was only able to go four minutes before his hip shut him down until after the break. Players like Greg Smith, Dwight Powell, Charlie Villanueva, Devin Harris, and/or Raymond Felton could get some extra run Wednesday due to these injuries, but this isn't likely to be relevant outside of daily leagues.
Melo's knee (again):Carmelo Anthony had to leave Monday's game against the Heat with soreness in his knee. It has long been theorized in this space that Melo has no incentive to play out this year outside of wanting to make his All-Star Game appearance in New York. With the ASG coming up rapidly, we could very well be seeing the last of Melo on an NBA court for this season. Trade him.
Green's ankle:Draymond Green sprained his right ankle, but X-rays came back negative, and the sprain isn't considered severe. Nevertheless, with the All-Star break approaching, it seems unlikely that Green will play on Wednesday, which could open things up for David Lee to start.
Crowded Nets re-visited: I co-hosted the Red Rock Fantasy Basketball podcast with Josh Lloyd last weekend, and one subject that came up was the crowded frontcourt and backcourt of the Brooklyn Nets. I've spoken on this in the Lab before, but it continues to be an evolving situation. At the moment, Jarrett Jack and Brook Lopez seem to be the primary point guard and center to own, even though Lopez is coming off the bench. With Mirza Teletovic out and Kevin Garnett on limited duty, Lopez is able to get his minutes and produce like a starter (32 minutes, 19.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 54% FG over the last two weeks). Mason Plumlee's production has been sliding (27 minutes, 9.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 56% FG, 49% FT over the last two weeks), but if you can stand the free throw hit, he's still worth hanging onto in the reasonable likelihood that either a trade or injury could once again clear the path for Plumlee to get back on a roll.
In the backcourt, Jack continues to hold off Deron Williams for the starting job. And it has been deserved, as Jack is still producing at a high level as a starter (39 minutes, 19.4 points, 8.4 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 47% FG, 93% FT over the last two weeks). Williams, on the other hand, continues to play below par despite averaging 28 minutes per game in the five outings since he's returned. Jack's potential is lower with Williams back, but he's still well worth owning. As for Williams…if I had him, I'd probably hold onto him in the hopes that a trade or injury eventually helps him re-find his mojo, but if not for that hope, his current production level and injury history would make him borderline cuttable.
New Additions
Honorable Mentions:Hassan Whiteside (74% owned in Yahoo! Leagues) and D.J. Augustin (65% owned) are not owned in 100% of leagues. My assumption is that this reflects a high percentage of dead leagues out there, but if by some miracle either of these two are available in your league, pick them up right now.
Spencer Hawes (48% owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Hawes' owned percentage has already skyrocketed since Blake Griffin's injury, but if you're in one of more-than-half-of-leagues out there where he's available, go ahead and pick Hawes up. With Griffin out until March, Hawes could be contributing almost up until the fantasy basketball playoffs.
Gerald Henderson (29% owned): Henderson has stepped back into a primary offensive role for the Hornets, especially with Kemba Walker (knee) and now Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (hamstring) out. Henderson has averaged 19 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the past week.
Ed Davis (24% owned): Davis had a stretch of good play around the New Year before falling out of favor a bit over the past few weeks, but he has taken advantage of more opportunity with Jordan Hill (hip) out and has responded by averaging 9.0 points, 11.7 boards, and 1.7 blocks over the last week.
Hollis Thompson (18% owned): Thompson makes this space despite the stinker he dropped on Monday (zero points, 0-for-9 FG, six rebounds, four turnovers) because he had been so hot in the games leading up to that (16.8 points, 5.5 boards, 3.3 treys in previous four outings). Thompson has always been inconsistent, but for now, he has a prominent role on a terrible team, so he's got value.
Keeping up with the Professor
If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on www.clnsradio.com about once a month.
