Hoops Lab: Enjoy the Process

So, what is it that we have in Joel Embiid?

While my colleague James Andersonfeels that Embiid has been hyped into one of the top stories of the season thus far, I actually feel like he's not getting nearly enough attention. That may be because Embiid is still somewhat flying under the radar due to the fact that he's on a minutes restriction as he continues to recover from multiple season-ending injuries that pushed his rookie season until this year. Plus, he plays for the winless 76ers. And, he plays center at a time when the marquee guys are all guards and wings.

But if any of that has kept you from being giddy about the man that has been dubbed "The Process", let me throw my own hype out there to put him more prominently on your radar.

As a rookie, Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 28.8 points, 16.4 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per 100 possessions on 59% true shooting percentage (TS%).

Tim Duncan averaged 29.3 points 16.6 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 3.8 assists per 100 possessions on 57.7% TS%.

Shaquille O'Neal averaged 30.7 points, 18.2 rebounds, 4.6 blocks and 2.5 assists per 100 on 58.4TS%.

David Robinson averaged 32.4 points, 16 rebounds, 5.2 blocks, 2.7 assists and 2.2 steals per 100 on 59.7% TS%.

All four were dominant Rookie of the Year seasons for big men that would go on to post inner-circle-of-the-inner-circle Hall of Fame careers.

Through his first four games, Joel Embiid is averaging 40.7 points, 13.7 rebounds, 6.6 blocks, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals and 3.3 made 3-pointers per 100 possessions on 60.7% TS%.

Now, the disclaimers. It's only been four games. Plus, Embiid is only playing 22 minutes per game as part of his minutes restriction. And perhaps most notably, Embiid has missed two full seasons with injuries to his lower body, and when big men develop chronic lower-body injuries it sometimes becomes a career-long/career-ending problem. I don't want to in any way minimize that last one.

OK, that's enough for disclaimers.

HOLY CRAP! This dude is electric. There isn't any skill that he lacks. At (unofficially) 7-2 and 280-290 pounds, he's completely capable of dominating the paint in traditional ways with rebounds and shot-blocking. But much like Towns and Anthony Davis, he is perfectly comfortable on the perimeter on both offense and defense. He's knocking down the trey casually, like it's just any other shot. And doing so at a rate that keeps his true shooting percentage up over 60 percent.

Alright. Breathe. But let's leave the numbers alone for a second and I'll ask one simple question:

Have you actually WATCHED Embiid play? Because I'll be honest, I just found out as I was writing this that his numbers look so beautiful. I was all fired up to write this lede not because of the numbers, but because I've been watching this dude and it's perfectly clear that if he stays healthy I'm watching the future. He casually does things that should be "oh crap" moments, like when he jogged up and did the between the legs dunk in warmups. That's a dunk that's won dunk contests before, and a 7-2 center just tossed it off one step in layup lines like it was nothing.

If you haven't, I really encourage you to read James' article scouting Embiid. It's got some very good clips on Embiid in action, both positive and negative. While I believe James was using this footage to temper what he was viewing as over-hyping (e.g. comparing Embiid to Hakeem Olajuwon), for me his footage does the exact opposite. Yes, Embiid got caught in some traps in his first exposure to NBA-level defense. And yes, Embiid's spin-move right now is slower than Hakeem Olajuwon's was at his peak. But really, re-read that last sentence and let it marinate. A raw, 7-2 290 pound rookie was almost nimble/graceful enough to replicate a signature move of possibly the most graceful, athletic center in NBA history at his peak? Really? The absolute possibilities of what that rookie might look like after he has more than four games of NBA experience don't send chills down your spine?

There has been a tangible sense for years that the era of great centers in the NBA is over, that the rules changes of the mid-2000s that were so favorable to offense made the center obsolete. But Embiid, Towns, Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and Kristaps Porzingis are showing us that this isn't true. The next era of dominant NBA centers is here. It's just that, instead of having games that look like Wilt or Shaq, the current generation of superstar centers have games that draw from the lineage of Kevin Garnett. They can dominate the paint as well as the perimeter, and fill up the fantasy box score along the way.

I read today that Embiid will remain on his minutes restriction until at least Christmas, after which it may be re-evaluated. As long as the restriction is in place, Embiid's fantasy prospects have some sort of limit -- at least, if you consider the 20 points, 8.0 boards, 4.0 blocks, 2.5 assists and 2.0 treys he has averaged in 25 minutes of his two November games a limit. But yes, if he stays healthy, then maybe by the New Year he may be able to play 30-plus minutes, as well as back-to-backs. If that's the case, it'd be a Christmas present to us all.

Around the NBA

KAT awakening: In last week's Hoops Lab lead, I talked about how Karl-Anthony Towns should still be considered to be in Anthony Davis' class despite Davis' mega-start and Towns' pedestrian one. In the last week, Towns has awakened on offense and is putting up numbers of his own. In his last two outings he has averaged 32.5 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 treys and 1.5 blocks. He still has clear upside to grow into the defensive presence he demonstrated last season, but offensively he has brought his size, quickness, athleticism, shooting touch and surprising array of moves online to start dominating the position.
Wall missing 2nd game of B2Bs:John Wall had procedures done on both knees this offseason, and the team wants to go slow in his recovery process. Last weekend he sat for the second game of a back-to-back to rest. It has not been announced how long this will continue, but the Wizards have another B2B on Friday and Saturday of this week, then one on Wednesday and Thursday of next week so monitor Wall's status before deploying him.

Booker exploding: Much like Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker was another second-year player for whom I had huge expectations coming into the season. And like Towns, Booker seems to have found himself over the last week. He has exploded to average 38.5 points, 5.0 assists, 3.5 boards and 3.0 treys in his last two outings and seems poised to take on the responsibility as the clear go-to offensive player for the Suns.
Nowitzki, Williams and Parker down a week:Dirk Nowitzki (sore Achilles), Deron Williams (calf) and Tony Parker (sore right knee) are both in the midst of injury recovery weeks. In related news, Nowitzki, Williams and Parker are getting old -- at least for basketball players. They can still be effective in limited minutes, but their days as impact players are behind them. Nowitzki is the best of the group and Williams the youngest, and each can still have genuine fantasy explosions on given days, but they are primarily DFS options now as year-long they can't be trusted. Parker is actually supposed to be back on the court Wednesday, but the days when that moves the needle are gone.

Parsons and Hayward return from injury:Gordon Hayward returned from injury with a bang, averaging 24 points over his first two starts. Chandler Parsons also made his debut on Sunday, but did so with a whimper with zero points, three boards and a blocked shot in 22 minutes of action. Both are expected to be strong wing shooter/scorers for their teams, but Hayward is much more the impact player. Parsons has had injury issues in each of the last two years and is more of a role player than an impact guy at this point.

Collison's suspension over:Darren Collison was suspended for the first eight games of the season for domestic violence, but his suspension is over and he should debut Tuesday. With Rajon Rondo out of town and Ty Lawson underwhelming in his absence, Collison is expected to take over as the unquestioned lead point guard for the Kings moving forward.

Ray officially hangs 'em up: More than two years after his last NBA action, Ray Allen officially announced his retirement last week. Ray battled the legacy of Reggie Miller for the title of best shooter of all-time until the Splash Brothers came along, and he also had a contemporary rival that many were unaware of. Come over to the Hoops Lab blog to look more closely at the man they call Jesus Shuttlesworth.

New Additions and DFS value

Tyler Johnson, G (53% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Johnson has established himself as the third member of a Heat three-man guard trio. Though he comes off the bench, he is averaging 14.5 oints with 4.0 boards, 1.8 assists, 1.5 steals and even 0.8 blocks on the year.
Sean Kilpatrick, SG (52% owned): Kilpatrick has settled in as a go-to scorer for the Nets, with at least 13 points in every game and averages of 17 points, 4.2 boards, 2.0 made treys, 2.0 assists and 1.2 steals.

C.J. Miles, GF (36% owned): Miles is a streaky shooter-scorer, and he's been in the zone for much of the season thus far. He has scored between 16 and 23 points in four straight games, knocking down 13 treys in that stretch, and should be owned as long as his shot is going in.

Amir Johnson, FC (20% owned) and Tyler Zeller, C (6% owned): Both Zeller and Johnson have had more opportunity than usual in the last three games due to the concussion absence of Al Horford. Both have had at least one strong game and will continue to get more minutes until Horford returns. There was some thought that Horford could return as soon as Wednesday, but he's since been ruled out and is being handled on a game-to-game basis.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow hoopslab.hsmyyt.com every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day on the site. I am also writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYT basketball show on the weekends.