This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
With the unpredictability of the final night of the regular season, it's pretty tricky to hone in on who exactly will be on the court and for how long, not to mention what each team's level of motivation might be given their respective circumstances. Even what would normally be an obvious play in this spot, the Jazz defense versus the Lakers is too much of a wild card given Kobe Bryant's final game and the fact Utah may already know it's been eliminated from playoff contention by game time if the Rockets defeat the Kings. We'll therefore go with a game featuring two clubs who may be primarily playing second units, given the certainty of their playoff seeding. Notably, their respective playoff positions dictate that they'll face off in the first round, meaning that both teams are likely to be in full vanilla mode for this one. The Cavs have been tough at home all season, and the overall defensive prowess of their roster should be enough to stymie a Pistons squad that will likely be playing a lot of their reserves as well.
Offense To Use
Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings
Although the Timberwolves and Pelicans could end up in a shootout, both units could also be a bit short on motivation in the finale. We'll go with a team on a mission in the Rockets, who are in a "win and in" situation with respect to the postseason. Throw in the fact that they'll face a Kings squad that gives up the most points per game (109.0) in the league, and that is already resting multiple front-line players, and you've got a recipe for what should be a fruitful offensive showing.
Teams on Back-to-Backs
First game: None
Second game: Pacers, Heat, Pistons, Sixers, Raptors, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clippers
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Tim Frazier, NO at MIN ($5,900): A number of cheaper point guards have stepped to the forefront in the latter stages of the season, but perhaps none of those has been as consistent as Frazier. Despite coming off the bench in the majority of games, he's scored between 23.75 and 51.0 fantasy points in nine of the last 10. That span includes four games over 30 fantasy points, another at 49.5, and 51.0 against the Bulls in his last game. He's essentially gotten it done across the stat sheet and will draw another poor defense, as the Timberwolves are allowing the third-most fantasy points (52.9) and third-most points (23.1) per game to point guards this season.
Other options: Chris Paul, LAC at PHO ($8,800); Damian Lillard, POR vs. DEN ($8,700); Kemba Walker, ORL at CHA ($8,400); Isaiah Thomas, BOS vs. MIA ($7,400); Ish Smith, PHI at CHI ($6,600); Jeff Teague, ATL at WAS ($6,400); Toney Douglas, NO at MIN ($5,500); Shelvin Mack, UTA at LAL ($5,400); Deron Williams, DAL vs. SA ($5,300); Patrick Beverley, HOU vs. SAC ($5,100); Seth Curry, SAC at HOU ($5,000)
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine, MIN vs. NO ($5,500): LaVine has an equally favorable matchup on the other side of the Timberwolves-Pelicans game, as he draws a New Orleans shooting guard defense that's surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points (43.0) per game to the position, and the most over the last five (56.2). They've also given up the most rebounds per game to shooting guards (6.6), and rank in the bottom 10 in virtually every other category. Furthermore, LaVine has bounced back recently after an extended cold streak, scoring over 30 fantasy points in three of his last four.
Other options: James Harden, HOU vs. SAC ($11,300); Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. PHI ($7,900); C.J. McCollum, POR vs. DEN ($7,000); Devin Booker, PHO vs. LAC ($7,000); Dwyane Wade, MIA at BOS ($6,400); Khris Middleton, MIL vs. IND ($6,400); Andrew Wiggins, MIN vs. NO ($6,300); Monta Ellis, IND at MIL ($5,300); Rodney Hood, UTA at LAL ($5,300); Avery Bradley, BOS vs. MIA ($5,100); Evan Turner, BOS vs. MIA ($5,100); Wesley Matthews, DAL vs. SA ($4,400); James Ennis, NO at MIN ($4,200)
Small Forward
Luol Deng, MIA at BOS ($5,500): Deng continues to outperform his price and will be locked into a battle with playoff implications against the Celtics' vulnerable frontcourt. Deng has scored 26.0, 32.5 and 34.0 fantasy points in his last three games, respectively, with two double-doubles over that span. The Celtics are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points (49.7), second-most points (22.5) and most rebounds (11.8) to power forwards this season, making them a logical target.
Other options: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. IND ($9,800); Rudy Gay, SAC at HOU ($7,400); Gordon Hayward, UTA at LAL ($7,300); Robert Covington, PHI at CHI ($6,900); Trevor Ariza, HOU vs. SAC ($6,000); Tobias Harris, DET at CLE ($5,900); Mirza Teletovic, PHO vs. LAC ($5,900); Jae Crowder, BOS vs. MIA ($5,700); Al-Farouq Aminu, POR vs. DEN ($5,300); Jerami Grant, PHI at CHI ($4,800)
Power Forward
Nemanja Bjelica, MIN vs. NO ($4,000): Bjelica has maximized his late-season opportunities, often outperforming starter Gorgui Dieng in recent games. He's scored 29.0, 37.0 and 31.0 fantasy points over the last three games, respectively, and over 20 on two other occasions in the last 10. He figures to get plenty of run in the finale against a Pelicans team that is decimated by injuries in the frontcourt.
Other options: Blake Griffin, LAC at PHO ($7,300); Zach Randolph, MEM at GS ($6,700); Derrick Favors, UTA at LAL ($6,600); Nerlens Noel, PHI at CHI ($6,400); Jabari Parker, MIL vs. IND ($5,900); Dirk Nowitzki, DAL vs. SA ($5,700); Markieff Morris, WAS vs ATL ($5,600); Gorgui Dieng, MIN vs. NO ($5,500); Marvin Williams, CHA vs. ORL ($5,300); Aaron Gordon, ORL at CHA ($5,000); Myles Turner, IND at MIL ($4,700)
Center
Dwight Howard, HOU vs. SAC ($6,100): Howard is sporting a depressed price relative to his recent production. The mercurial big man has picked it up again during the Rockets' playoff push, scoring between 26.75 and 37.0 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including over 30 in three of his last four. He's been banging the glass as well, tallying double-digit boards in five games of his last 10. The playoffs are on the line for the Rockets, and they control their own destiny, meaning we should see a motivated Howard against a Kings defense that's giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game (56.6) to centers over the last five, and the fifth-most rebounds (15.4) per game this season.
Other options: Hassan Whiteside, MIA at BOS ($8,900); Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. NO ($8,800); Nikola Vucevic, ORL at CHA ($7,700): Andre Drummond, DET at CLE ($7,400); Al Horford, ATL at WAS ($6,400); Marcin Gortat, WAS vs. ATL ($5,800); Nikola Jokic, DEN at POR ($5,300); Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at HOU ($5,100); Kosta Koufos, SAC at HOU ($4,900); Al Jefferson, CHA vs. ORL ($4,700); Jared Sullinger, BOS vs. MIA ($4,400); Henry Sims, BKN vs. TOR ($3,700); Bismack Biyombo, TOR at BKN ($3,500); Cristiano Felicio, CHI vs. PHI ($3,500);
INJURY REPORT
Out
Justise Winslow (ankle)
Tyler Johnson (shoulder)
Udonis Haslem (foot)
Chris Bosh (clots)
DeMarre Carroll (rest)
Thomas Robinson (knee)
Willie Reed (personal)
Brook Lopez (rest)
Thaddeus Young (rest)
Victor Oladipo (concussion)
Reggie Jackson (abdomen)
Jodie Meeks (foot/shoulder)
Iman Shumpert (knee)
Isaiah Canaan (shoulder)
Carl Landry (back)
Richaun Holmes (Achilles)
Derrick Rose (elbow/rest)
E'Twaun Moore (hamstring)
Taj Gibson (ribs)
Pau Gasol (knee)
Tony Parker (rest)
Kawhi Leonard (rest)
Rajon Rondo (rest)
DeMarcus Cousins (rest)
Omri Casspi (hamstring)
Darren Collison (rest)
Marco Belinelli (foot)
Sam Dekker (back)
Norris Cole (back)
Ryan Anderson (groin)
Kevin Garnett (knee)
Nikola Pekovic (Achilles)
Tony Allen (hamstring)
Brandan Wright (knee)
Kevon Looney (hip)
Game-Time Decision
Delon Wright (ankle)
James Johnson (rest)
Sergey Karasev (personal)
Aaron Gordon (concussion)
Nikola Vucevic (leg)
Nicolas Batum (ankle)
Cody Zeller (chest)
Mo Williams (knee)
Bradley Beal (pelvis)
John Wall (knee)
Nene Hilario (rest)
Manu Ginobili (rest)
Boris Diaw (groin)
LaMarcus Aldridge (finger)
C.J. Miles (shoulder)
Jerryd Bayless (knee)
Alexis Ajinca (shoulder)
Rudy Gobert (ankle)
J.J. Redick (heel)
Paul Pierce (ankle)
Jamal Crawford (rest)
Archie Goodwin (ankle)
Tyson Chandler (concussion)
Gary Harris (knee)
Darrell Arthur (knee)
Kenneth Faried (rest)
Chris Kaman (abdomen)
