This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
IND (-6.5) vs. CLE, O/U: 229.5
WAS vs. ATL (-7.5), O/U: 237.5
NO vs. MEM (-9.5), O/U: 225.5
MIL (-7.5) vs. SA, O/U: 232.5
HOU vs. POR (-14.5), O/U: 238.5
UTA (-3.5) vs, GS, O/U: 229.5
The WAS-ATL matchup will be a popular target and rightfully so, as the Wizards are without Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook still has motivation to win. I'd expect most lineups to have multiple pieces from the Washington side while Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are appealing options for game stacks.
The UTA-GS matchup is another good target as it features the closest spread on the slate and tips off last at 10:00 p.m. EDT, alongside the HOU-POR matchup. News on the Rockets is important tonight and it's likely we won't have it before lock. Back-loading the late games and reacting to news has been an optimal strategy as the season winds down, and there isn't as much downside risk tonight with viable pivots on Golden State and Utah if the news in Houston doesn't break favorably.
Injuries to Monitor
Zion Williamson (finger): OUT
Williamson has a fractured finger and will be out indefinitely. James Johnson has been starting at power forward in his absence.
Donovan Mitchell (ankle) and Mike Conley (hamstring): OUT
Mitchell will be out another week while Conley will miss his eight consecutive game. Joe Ingles and Royce O'Neale have been starting in the backcourt.
Bradley Beal (hamstring): OUT
Beal injured his hamstring Saturday and has been ruled out for tonight. It's unclear who will start but Garrison Mathews and Chandler Hutchison are candidates to see extra run.
Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Brogdon has missed five consecutive games due to a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Edmond Sumner and Aaron Holiday have gotten starts in his absence.
Christian Wood (ankle) and Kelly Olynyk (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Olynyk sat out Saturday while Wood has missed the last three games, and both are considered questionable. Kenyon Martin, Jae'Sean Tate and Anthony Lamb started in the frontcourt last time out.
Kevin Porter (ankle): OUT
Porter will miss a third consecutive game due to a sprained ankle. D.J. Augustin and DaQuan Jeffries have been starting in the backcourt.
Brandon Ingram (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Ingram has missed back-to-back games due to a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable. Naji Marshall has been starting at small forward in his place.
Darius Garland (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Garland has missed five consecutive games with a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable. Isaac Okoro has been starting at shooting guard in his place.
Kelly Oubre (wrist): OUT
Oubre hasn't played since April 27th and will be re-evaluated next week. Kent Bazemore will continue to start at small forward.
Steven Adams (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Adams has missed six of the last eight games due to a lingering toe injury and is listed as questionable. Willy Hernangomez has been starting at center while Jaxson Hayes has seen extended run off the bench.
Elite Players
Guard:
Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
Westbrook has put up 80-plus DK points in three of his last four games. It continues to puzzle me that his salary remains fixed at $11,000, as he's been a bargain for awhile now. It should be closer to $13K with Bradley Beal ruled out for tonight's matchup against the Hawks. Westbrook will be chalky and rightfully so.
Stephen Curry ($10,500)
Curry is coming off 65.25 DK points in just 29 minutes last time out. He been attempting upwards of 20 three-pointers per game as he continues to put up historic numbers from behind the ark. The Warriors are in a nice spot against the Jazz, who will have a tough time containing Curry as they're still without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.
Caris LeVert ($9,000)
LeVert as topped 60 DK points and played 40-plus minutes in consecutive games. He's getting all the usage he can handle as the Pacers have been without Malcolm Brogdon. They have a favorable matchup against the Cavs and LeVert's viability hinges on the status of Brogdon, who's considerable questionable.
F/C:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)
Giannis has failed to reach 50 DK points in consecutive games while only seeing around 30 minutes in each, despite them being close. It's difficult to trust the Bucks to unleash him at this stage of the season, especially when they're fully healthy. Of course he has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer, even in limited minutes in a matchup against the Spurs, but there are more appealing spend-up options.
Domantas Sabonis ($10,600)
Sabonis has put up 74-plus DK points in three of his last five games as the Pacers have been short-handed. He's in play whether Brogdon suits up or not, as he has triple-double upside in a favorable matchup against the Cavs. Without Brogdon in the lineup however, Sabonis has a similar ceiling to that of Westbrook and Curry.
Expected Chalk
Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
Fading Westbrook has been a losing play for some time now and yet for whatever reason, he continues be less popular than he should be on a nightly basis. I understand when experts around the industry recommend a fade based off game theory, but at some point it's time to recognize a sure thing when you see it and look for leverage in other spots. Now that Beal is out, and Westbrook's salary still hasn't moved, I'd expect the majority of people to bite the bullet and roster him. Cheap value opens up every night and that should lead to him being the most popular player on the slate.
Value Picks
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,000)
Bogdanovic has seen his salary dip to its lowest point in 10 games for an ideal matchup against the Wizards. It would make sense to pair him with Westbrook and another Wizard and hope the game becomes a shootout.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,600) and Joe Ingles ($6,300)
Bogdanovic and Ingles will continue to see expanded roles in the absence of Mitchell and Conley. Bogdanovic put up 66.5 DK points Friday and both players have seen a drop in salary for a favorable matchup against the Warriors.
Rui Hachimura ($4,900), Raul Neto ($4,500) and Davis Bertans ($3,700)
Beal's absence leaves a lot of usage up grabs. Hachimura, Neto and Bertans have the most upside as they'll be expected to pick up the scoring slack.
Jaxson Hayes ($4,500), if Steven Adams is out
Hayes has topped 40 DK points in consecutive games as he's seen extended run off the bench in the absence of Adams. Encouragingly, he closed Sunday's game ahead of starter Willy Hernangomez.
Houston Rockets, *if Olynyk and Wood are out
The Rockets are still light on bodies and are likely to be a popular source of value again depending on injury news. Kenyon Martin ($6,200) has put up 47-plus DK points in three consecutive games. He started at center Saturday out of necessity. Jae'Sean Tate ($6,500) has triple-double upside as the main playmaker in the absence of any true point guards besides D.J. Augustin. Khyri Thomas ($5,500) exploded for 52.75 DK points last time out in his second appearance after signing a 10-day contract Friday. DaQuan Jeffries ($4,400) and Anthony Lamb ($4,100) still have affordable salaries and are viable as well if they start. I prefer the young players over the veterans in these spots when bad teams are undermanned.
