Hoops Lab: DeMar DeRozan... Mentioned With Michael Jordan?

I'm sitting here watching the Warriors play the Raptors. At the moment, the Warriors are up by 17 -- wait, make it 19 -- about two minutes into the second half, and things just aren't going well for the Raptors. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are a combined 5-for-19 from the field with five turnovers, and the whole team appears really fatigued after their match-up with the Cavs yesterday. A back-to-back against both teams from last year's Finals does seem a bit extreme.

But even one rocky game can't overshadow what DeRozan has been able to accomplish through the first month of the season, and that's what I'm here to talk about today. DeRozan entered Wednesday leading the NBA in scoring at 33.2 points per game and rankin fourth in PER behind only Chris Paul, James Harden and Russell Westbrook, and just ahead of Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant. If you read me that list of players, to me it looks like: five NBA MVP favorites…and DeMar DeRozan. But that's not really fair. If he can keep up this pace, DeRozan would actually be a very legitimate pick for the NBA MVP. This, in his eighth NBA season, having never even made a single All-NBA team, would be considered a surprising development.

On Tuesday, in my weekly appearance on the Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today show, Chris Liss asked me what my biggest whiff has been thus far as a prognosticator for the 2016-17 season. My off-the-cuff answer was DeRozan, as I'd be lying all over the place if I predicted anything like what we've seen so far. DeRozan recently became the first player since Michael Jordan in 1986-87 to score 30-plus points in eight of the first nine games of an NBA season. My colleague from NylonCalculus.com, Ian Levy, wrote an article titled (without irony): "Is DeMar DeRozan the next Michael Jordan?"

Ian went on to analytically break down that DeRozan, like Jordan used to do routinely, was leading the NBA in scoring at excellent efficiency (59.4 percent true shooting through nine games), despite operating almost entirely inside the arc. That's almost unheard of in this day of the three-pointer, but thus far DeRozan is pulling it off. If no one else will, I'll raise my hand and say that I didn't see this coming.
But, let's unpack that a little bit. Should I have perhaps considered that this was possible? Were there signs to indicate that DeRozan could be primed to make a leap in his eighth NBA season? Honestly, yeah, maybe there were. Let's take a closer look.

First, DeRozan just turned 27 years old, an age at which many NBA players tend to reach their peaks. And he's also coming off the best season of his career, in which he took a big step up from the year before (plus-3.4 points, plus-4% true shooting from 2014-15 to 2015-16) and received his second All-Star nod.

DeRozan also signed a big contract this offseason to be the franchise player in Toronto, while his cohort Kyle Lowry is in the final year of his deal and has some uncertainty as to whether he'll re-sign. Perhaps this helped DeRozan's confidence, and made him more secure in the fact that this is his team.

Another event this summer that may have helped his psyche was his time with Team USA at the Summer Olympics. Winning a gold medal while surrounded by some of the best players in the world could have been both a confidence-builder and a motivating tool for a player reaching his physical peak, showing him how close he is to NBA greatness.
But, again, none of those things alone explain the totality of the improvement that we've seen from DeRozan. So, let's go into how the difference has played out on the court. DeRozan has always been an inside-out player, but he's lived in the mid-range more than ever this season, as his percentage of shots at the rim (from 22.6% down to 13.5% through 10 games) and behind the arc (10.1% down to 7.8%) have decreased from 2015-16, while his percentage of shots from 10-to-16 feet (from 21.4% up to 25.7%) and 16 feet-to-3-point line (24.7% to 30.6%) have both increased significantly.

Not only is he shooting midrange jumpers more often, he's also making them at a dramatically higher clip (from 41.5% up to 58.7% from 10-to-16 feet; from 35.9% up to 50.7% from 16 feet-to-3-point line). And all of this is happening despite the fact that he's being assisted on only 23.3% of his 2-point shot attempts, down from 25.2% a year ago and down even more drastically from his career-average of 47.9%.

A lot of dense numbers in there. Translation: DeRozan is attacking more off the dribble than ever before, finding his spots in the mid-range and knocking those shots down at a clip well beyond anything he's ever done before. This suggests that he's likely to regress to the mean to some extent with his shooting percentages, but on the other hand he may be more comfortable off the dribble and even if his percentages drop they're still likely to land higher than his career-norms.

Plus, another aspect of DeRozan's improvement may prove to be more robust. DeRozan is getting to the line more than at any time in his career. He set a career-high last year with 8.4 free throw attempts per game, but he's raised that to 9.8 per through the Raptors' first 10 games, even before drawing 17 foul shots on Wednesday against the Warriors. This could actually help explain why his percentage of attempts at the rim is down. He's drawing more fouls, which obviously transfers those would-be shot attempts, many of which come at the rim, to free throw attempts.

So, what do we have in DeRozan?

Well, so far his scoring appears to be markedly improved this season and that improvement seems fairly sustainable. His mid-range shot percentages may decrease a bit, but he's clearly the scoring focal point for the Raptors in a way he's never been, so the volume of attemps shouldn't be an issue. And even in a tough game, like he was having on Wednesday against the Warriors, he found a way to get to the line and turn things around to finish with 34 points on 8-of-18 from the field and 17-for-17 from the line. DeRozan may not be Jordan overall, but the early returns suggest that he may well join Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and a select few other wings to score more than 30 points per game over a full season, which should suit those that got him a bit later in drafts just fine.

Around the NBA

Davis' back and quad: The knock on Anthony Davis has always been his injury history, and that has once again become a part of his story. Davis injured his back in a game this weekend but was able to come back and play on Monday only to injure his right quad. Davis sat on Wednesday, allowing Terrence Jones to detonate in his absence, and there's no timetable set for his return. It doesn't sound like a major injury, but keep an eye out for further updates as to when Davis is expected back.

Howard's quad:Dwight Howard had to leave Tuesday's game against the Heat with a left quad contusion that has already caused him to sit out Wednesday's game against Milwaukee. Mike Muscala started in his absence and turned in 16 points, five boards, three assists and a blocked shot in 33 minutes of action. There is no word yet on if Howard will be able to return for Friday, but the injury doesn't sound major so he shouldn't be expected to miss very much more time.

Skeptical of any "Trade Klay" rumors: Earlier this week my man Billy Haze tweeted me a question about the rumor of a big trade involving the 76ers trading a big man and the Warriors trading Klay Thompson:

@ProfessorDrz thoughts on this? https://t.co/iONu3ylHtp

— billyhaze (@billyhaze) November 14, 2016

Dragic's ankle and Winslow's wrist:Goran Dragic has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, but he was able to work out on Tuesday and may return to action soon. Justise Winslow initially attempted to play through a wrist injury, but it was too much and he ultimately had to sit on Tuesday's game. Both are considered questionable for Thursday. Josh Richardson has been the biggest beneficiary of their absences, drawing three straight starts and putting up an especially good game on Tuesday with both sitting.

Williams and Barea bad calves:Deron Williams missed four straight games with a calf strain, returned for 10 minutes on Wednesday, only to have to leave the game again and not return. Barea had been playing well in Williams' absence, but he strained his own calf in the fourth quarter on Wednesday and had to be carried from the court. Both are considered questionable until further update, but if both have to sit then Seth Curry could be the big minutes beneficiary. The Mavs are so desperate for help at point guard that they waived Quincy Acy on Thursday and signed Jonathan Gibson to the 15-man roster.

Holiday returning Friday, Evans back to non-contact activity:Jrue Holiday will return to game action and make his season debut on Friday. He is fully healthy and has been working out to get into shape but may be capped at 30 minutes for his debut. Tyreke Evans has also missed the whole season thus far, but he is still rehabbing his knee injury and was just able to return to non-contact on-court activity on Tuesday. There is no official timetable, but initial estimates would suggest he may return sometime in mid-December.

New Additions and DFS value

Terrence Jones, F (43% owned): Jones started on Wednesday night in place of Anthony Davis and turned in 26 points on 9-of-20 FG and 6-of-7 FT, grabbed nine boards, knockded down two treys and dished two assists. There's no word yet on how long Davis might sit, but Jones is borderline ownable even with Davis healthy and should be a daily play for as long as Davis is out.

Wilson Chandler, F (36% owned): Chandler returned from injury on Saturday and has turned in three increasingly strong games to average 17.3 points, 9.3 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.0 steals over that stretch. The Nuggets frontcourt rotation is murky, but right now he has the hot hand and has shown in the past that he can be productive when healthy.

Josh Richardson, GF (44% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Richardson has started the last three games in place of the injured Goran Dragic, and with Justise Winslow now out as well, he should continue to maintain his minutes until they are both healthy. Richardson is coming off his best game of the season on Tuesday, scoring 19 points (8-of-14 FG, 2-of-2 FT) with four boards, two steals, two assists and a trey in 38 minutes against the Hawks.

Seth Curry, G (27% owned): Curry could be in line for more minutes in the short term, as both Deron Willimas and J.J. Barea are struggling with the aforementioned calf issues. Curry has played 30-plus minutes in four straight games, averaging 12 points, 5.0 assists, 3.5 boards, 2.3 steals and 1.8 treys over that stretch.

Mike Muscala, C (19% owned): Muscala has been strong in a bench role all season, making him borderline rosterable in deep leagues. But he got the start on Wednesday with Dwight Howard dealing with a quad contusion, and responded with 16 points, five boards, three assists and a trey in 33 minutes. If Howard misses any more time, Muscala makes for a good short-term add.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow hoopslab.hsmyyt.com every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day on the site. I am also writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYT basketball show on the weekends.