This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic
There aren't any truly intimidating defenses Sunday. Through the first almost-week, the Nuggets are actually second in the NBA in team defensive rating and they've played a moderately slow pace, but they are playing the juggernaut offense of the Thunder. The Raptors are eighth in defensive rating, but play the fastest pace in the league to give opponents lots of opportunities for volume stats. The Bulls are 10th in defensive rating and 19th in pace, and they're playing against a Magic offense that has been average (17th in offensive rating, 13th in pace). The Bulls' defense is milder now than it was in previous years under Tom Thibodeau, so this isn't such so much an "avoid" as it is a "be aware" that the Magic offensive players may have to work a bit harder than usual to be productive.
Offense to Use:
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
This competition is the exact opposite, as there are several terrible defenses playing Sunday, which means that several offenses should do well. Through two games the Bucks are giving up a league-worst 122.8 points per 100 possessions, but they play a relatively modest 97.7 pace to help mitigate. Meanwhile, the Lakers have the second-worst defensive rating in the league (116.2) AND they play at the third-highest pace in the league (105). Thus, the Mavericks are set to run and gun against a really poor Lakers defense which should help their skill players. I started to put the Thunder here just because Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are matchup-proof, but they could go in this space every night so that seemed too easy.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Rockets, Bucks, Thunder, Spurs
Second game: None
DraftKings DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Kyle Lowry vs. MIL ($7,900): Just for the record, Westbrook is averaging 65.9 FPts/game through two outings, so even as the highest priced player on Sunday ($10,300) he could be worth it. That said, Lowry is coming off a 44.75-FPt effort against the Celtics and is playing against a Bucks defense that has the worst defensive rating in the NBA. The Bucks play a slower pace but the Raptors play the highest pace in the league, so if they can speed up the game that could mean big numbers for Lowry.
Other suggestions:Emmanuel Mudiay vs. OKC ($5,800), Raymond Felton at LAL ($3,500)
Shooting Guard
Dwyane Wade vs. HOU ($6,800): There are a lot of good options at shooting guard just under the top tier Sunday. Every argument for Lowry also applies to DeMar DeRozan ($7,400, 43.8 FPts/G), while Jimmy Butler ($7,700, 39.8 FPt/G) and Victor Oladipo ($7,400, 51.5 FPt/G) are facing each other in what could be a shoot-out, and Kobe Bryant ($6,800, 28.8 FPt/Game) has a solid matchup against a Mavericks team without much defensive size on the perimeter. But Wade has the best combination of a relatively low price, good production (35.1 FPt/game) and good matchup against a Rockets defense that isn't that impressive and plays a fast pace.
Other suggestions:DeMar DeRozan vs. TOR ($7,400), Nick Young vs. DAL ($3,800)
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo at TOR ($6,100): Once again we have to caveat that Kevin Durant is playing and coming off of a 69-FPt game, so he could be worth the highest price tag among forwards. That said, there are a lot of really good mid-priced options on the board. I'm going with Antetokounmpo over DeMarre Carroll, Danilo Gallinari and Tobias Harris because all have relatively similar prices and current averages but the Greek Freak has the highest one-game upside on the board besides Durant.
Other suggestions:DeMarre Carroll vs. MIL ($5,500), Danilo Gallinari at OKC ($6,500)
Power forward
Nikola Mirotic vs. ORL ($6,700): Another deep category with affordable not-quite-max level players, as Greg Monroe ($7,900, 45.4 FPt/G), Chris Bosh ($7,300, 35.4 FPt/G), Pau Gasol ($7,600, 32.1 FPt/G) and Dirk Nowitzki ($6,400, 30.8 FPt/G) are all worthy options. I go with Mirotic because he's been very consistent (between 33.0 and 37.75 FPts in all three games), his price tag is toward the lower end of this group and his defensive match-up isn't very impressive.
Other suggestions:Greg Monroe at TOR ($7,900), Dirk Nowitzki at LAL ($6,400)
Center
Roy Hibbert vs, DAL ($5,400): Hibbert has quietly been very solid in his first two games in LA. He's only played 24.5 minutes per game, but he's averaged 11.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 blocks and 2.0 steals. Plus, he is facing a Mavericks team that runs a big, plodding guy in Zaza Pachulia at center, which should fit in Hibbert's wheelhouse.
Other suggestions:Jonas Valanciunas vs. MIL ($6,200), Hassan Whiteside vs. HOU ($6,500)
Injury Report
Out
Mike Dunleavy (lower back)
JaVale McGee (tibial stress fracture)
Wilson Chandler (hip)
Jusuf Nurkic (knee)
Donatas Motiejunas (back)
Terrence Jones (face/stitches)
O.J. Mayo (hamstring)
Jabari Parker (knee)
Game-Time Decision
Deron Williams (knee)
Chandler Parsons (knee)
Wesley Matthews (Achilles tendon)
John Henson (Achilles tendon)
Lucas Nogueira (hamstring)
