Charlie's NBAngle: What to do with Rose

Charlie's NBAngle: What to do with Rose

This article is part of our Charlie's NBAngle series.

A few weeks ago – just after news of his season-ending injury broke – I got involved in a Twitter discussion about Steve Nash's case for the Basketball Hall of Fame.

For me, Nash is a no-brainer for Springfield. He's one of the top offensive guards of his generation, a brilliant and efficient passer and shooter. And he gets extra points for being an innovator, for his role as one of the keys to Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns teams that inspired a new era of really entertaining basketball.

But there's an easier argument to make on his behalf. Nash was the MVP, and the Maurice Podoloff Trophy basically comes with a ticket to Springfield. The Hall has already enshrined every MVP winner from Bob Petit (1956) through Karl Malone (1999). It's only a matter of time before Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Allen Iverson (2001) get the call. Basketball Reference rates Shaq's hall of fame chance at 1.000 and Iverson rates a .998. (For comparison, 2014 inductees Mitch Richmond and Alonzo Mourning rated .6998 and .9310 on the same scale.)

And every MVP winner since Iverson is still technically active:


Basketball Reference gives Nash a 98 percent chance, Nowitzki a 99 percent chance, and the rest are listed at 100 percent.

Yes, someone is missing from this list – 2011 MVP Derrick Rose

A few weeks ago – just after news of his season-ending injury broke – I got involved in a Twitter discussion about Steve Nash's case for the Basketball Hall of Fame.

For me, Nash is a no-brainer for Springfield. He's one of the top offensive guards of his generation, a brilliant and efficient passer and shooter. And he gets extra points for being an innovator, for his role as one of the keys to Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns teams that inspired a new era of really entertaining basketball.

But there's an easier argument to make on his behalf. Nash was the MVP, and the Maurice Podoloff Trophy basically comes with a ticket to Springfield. The Hall has already enshrined every MVP winner from Bob Petit (1956) through Karl Malone (1999). It's only a matter of time before Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Allen Iverson (2001) get the call. Basketball Reference rates Shaq's hall of fame chance at 1.000 and Iverson rates a .998. (For comparison, 2014 inductees Mitch Richmond and Alonzo Mourning rated .6998 and .9310 on the same scale.)

And every MVP winner since Iverson is still technically active:


Basketball Reference gives Nash a 98 percent chance, Nowitzki a 99 percent chance, and the rest are listed at 100 percent.

Yes, someone is missing from this list – 2011 MVP Derrick Rose. And sadly, he seems to be the biggest threat to the MVP/HoF streak. Rose was honored for his third season in the league and hasn't been healthy since. He appeared in 39 games in 2011-12, missed the entire 2012-13 season and all but ten games of 2013-14. This year, he's appeared in seven of the Bulls' 15 games, and was held out of the second half of Tuesday night's game due to hamstring soreness.

Rose just turned 26 years old – he should be entering his athletic prime. Instead, it seems more than fair to wonder if he'll ever even approach his MVP form. Some are openly wondering whether Rose will be this generation's Penny Hardaway - a superstar that will never reach his seemingly limitless potential due to repeated injuries. Or maybe he'll have the career of Grant Hill, who went from superstar to injury-riddled disappointment to "wow, this guy is sneaky-good."

Incidentally, Basketball Reference rates Hill's HoF chance at .891 – not bad for a guy who averaged 15.6 games in his age 28-30 seasons.

But enough about Rose's legacy – how does a fantasy owner deal with Rose for the rest of this season? I imagine most Rose owners are feeling like Tom Thibodeau right now – deeply frustrated.

The Thibs factor complicates this issue a great deal. Chicago's coach is famous for riding his key guys, having players like Luol Deng rack up massive minute totals even through nagging injuries. We're seeing that this season with Pau Gasol, who played a combined 73 minutes in a back-to-back this week. I don't know if Thibs has it in him to limit Rose's minutes to 20 or so per game, to sit him completely during back-to-backs or three-in-four sets. Honestly, I'd be a lot more optimistic about Rose's prospects if he played for Gregg Popovich, who is super-aggressive about finding opportunities to rest his key players, or the Suns, with their legendary training staff that managed to keep players like Nash and Hill and Amar'e Stoudemire on the floor.

Failing that, here's my approach:


  • In a shallow league, there's no particularly good reason to hang on to Rose at this point. Grab a Darren Collison (80.7% owned in ESPN leagues) or Jeff Teague (89.9%) off the wire – you'll be much better off.
  • In a deeper league, if you're a Rose owner, you'll want to bench him until he puts together at least a week's worth of solid performances. Pick up Aaron Brooks (11.6%). Technically, Kirk Hinrich (5.7%) is Rose's backup – but Hinrich isn't exactly Cal Ripken in the durability department either.

Incidentally, the biggest beneficiary of Rose's injury seems to be Jimmy Butler, who has been absolutely outstanding of late. In his last six games, has now scored 20 or more five times and is averaging 22.0 points, 5.8 boards, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals in that span. Nice timing for him – he'll be a restricted free agent this summer and figures to cash in big-time.

Anthony's Status Uncertain

Carmelo Anthony left Monday's game with back spasms and is likely to miss Wednesday and Friday's games as well. But some reports in the New York media have suggested that Melo's back problem is pretty serious and could linger though most of this season.

If Anthony misses significant time, Amar'e Stoudemire (41.3% owned) could become New York's primary offensive threat. STAT has actually been pretty good this season, and appears to be healthier than he's been in years (though he's still a complete non-factor on the defensive end). The Knicks could also employ a small lineup more often, which would create additional opportunities for Iman Shumpert (48.8%), Tim Hardaway Jr. (10.9%), J.R. Smith (42.0%) and Shane Larkin (1.1%). This might have been an opportunity for rookie Cleanthony Early, but he's sidelined indefinitely after having some loose bodies removed from his knee.

If Anthony is sidelined for any significant length of time, keep an eye on the status of second-round pick Thanasis Antetokounmpo. Giannis' older brother – the Knicks' second-round pick in this year's draft – is playing for New York's new D-League affiliate in Westchester. He's painfully raw on the offensive end, with a game mostly limited to put-backs and fast-break dunks, but he's an absolute menace on defense. He's averaging 3.2 blocks per game thus far, with two six-block performances thus far.

Another D-League name to watch: Earl Clark. The NBA journeyman, who has bounced around quite a bit already, is absolutely lighting things up for Houston's affiliate – 28.8 ppg - and will reportedly sign a deal soon with the Lakers. A spot opened up when Los Angeles lost yet another player this week when Xavier Henry ruptured his Achilles' tendon during practice.

The Lakers also have Manny Harris averaging nearly 30 ppg for their own D-League affiliate, but he plays the same position as Kobe Bryant and Nick Young, so that's less helpful.

More Picks for the Week

(All percent-owned stats are from ESPN.com.)

David West (66%) – Could make his season debut this Friday.

Danilo Gallinari (27.8%) – Gallo hit a lot of waiver wires because his minutes were restricted as he works his way back from injury. But he's averaged 30 mpg in his last two games. Assuming he can stay healthy (never a safe assumption with this guy), he should start putting up roster-worthy numbers.

Kris Humphries (3.8%) – Humphries is starting in place of Nene, who is dealing with plantar fasciitis. As most fantasy players are probably aware, that's an injury that can linger and only really gets better with rest, so Hump could hang on to the role for a while.

Ramon Sessions (1.8%) and Omri Casspi (1.3%) – Both Darren Collison and Rudy Gay are sidelined for the time being, but Sessions and Casspi have filled in admirably and are good short-term plays.

Mike Miller (0.6%) - David Blatt's latest attempt to jump-start the Cavaliers will feature Miller in the starting lineup, replacing Shawn Marion.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Charlie Zegers
Charlie has covered the NBA, NFL and MLB for RotoWire for the better part of 15 years. His work has also appeared on About.com, MSG.com, the New York Times, ESPN, Fox Sports and Yahoo. He embraces his East Coast bias and is Smush Parker's last remaining fan.
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