Farm Futures: 20 Hitter Predictions

Last season marked the first year of preseason prospect predictions here at RotoWire, and as with most prediction pieces, there were some that looked quite prophetic, and some that I would like to permanently remove from the internet.

Before getting to the hitter predictions for 2017, let's take a look at some notable hits and misses from last year's piece.

The Good

"Yoan Moncada will finish the season as the top prospect in the game, following the graduations of Byron Buxton and Corey Seager. He will do so by hitting 20-plus homers and stealing 40-plus bases across stops at High-A and Double-A, while also getting a two-week taste of Triple-A to close out the minor league season."

Verdict: I was a tad overzealous on the home run projection (he hit 15), but he stole 45 bases and did receive a promotion from Double-A at the end of the minor league season -- it just happened to be to the majors instead of Triple-A, due more to the Red Sox's desperation at third base than a readiness on Moncada's part.

"Tim Anderson will be up to the majors in time to lead the team with 20-25 steals, and while he may have more steals than walks, his combination of speed and a high batting average will prompt the industry to rank him as a top-150 player heading into drafts in 2017."

Verdict: Anderson got a call up on June 10, and while he didn't run as much as most hoped, he almost stole as many bases (10) as he walked (13), and his ADP currently sits at 159.8 and climbing.

"Andrew Benintendi will be the first position player from the 2015 draft to reach the major leagues, taking over in left field in early August as the Red Sox make a push to win the AL East. His across-the-board production and 70-grade hit tool will allow him to contribute immediately in standard leagues."

Verdict: Benintendi got the call on Aug. 2, but Alex Bregman beat him up to The Show by a week.

"Victor Robles will finish the season as a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues. He will begin the year at Low-A, but could be promoted to High-A before his 19th birthday on May 19. Robles (pronounced "robe-less") will be an asset in batting average and steals, but if he grows into a bit more power, he could post Andrew McCutchen-esque numbers in time."

Verdict: He arrived at High-A about a month after his 19th birthday and is currently the No. 4 ranked prospect in the game.

"Mallex Smith will be a FAAB drain upon a first half call-up, but due to a slight frame that limits his ability to impact the baseball, he will hit below .250 and end up on waiver wires in standard leagues within a month of his call-up."

Verdict: He hit below .250 (.238), but he got hurt before he could get sent back down to Triple-A.

The Bad

"Joey Gallo will be the talk of the minor leagues in the first half of the season, leading major league and minor league hitters in home runs prior to a call-up in June or July. However, he may only get in the big league lineup a couple times each week, unless Adrian Beltre or Prince Fielder suffer an injury."

Verdict: Gallo hit 25 homers in the Pacific Coast League last year, but at no point was he the talk of the minor leagues, and while he was promoted twice before September, his stock took a pretty big hit as he struck out at a 34.6 percent clip and hit .240 at Triple-A.

"Jorge Mateo will finish the season as a top-three prospect for dynasty leagues. He has 80-grade speed, the potential for 12-15 homers, and an on-base ability that belongs at the top of a big league lineup. The 20-year-old shortstop also has elite makeup, and the total package amounts to a dynasty league building block who should be one of the top trade targets for owners looking to buy before the price goes through the roof."

Verdict: Mateo had a disappointing 2016, as he was a league average hitter (99 wRC+) at High-A and was suspended for insubordination (so much for that makeup). He no longer projects to end up at shortstop, but that 80-grade speed remains. It's possible I'm too low on Mateo because of how much he burned me last season.

"Jomar Reyes will hit more homers in the Carolina League than Rafael Devers, opening up a debate as to which hulking teenage third base prospect is preferable in dynasty leagues."

Verdict: While Devers (11) only hit one more home run than Reyes (10) last year, there is absolutely no debate which player has the brighter future right now. I still like Reyes a lot as a bounceback candidate, but his value has taken a major hit.

"Jacob Nottingham will get a September call-up following a mid-season Jonathan Lucroy trade. The top catching prospect in the game for dynasty league purposes, Nottingham will show off his impressive raw power to the tune of 20-plus homers prior to the call-up, and will be the Brewers' Opening Day catcher in 2017."

Verdict: Hey, at least I was right about Lucroy getting traded! Sadly Nottingham no longer projects to end up behind the plate, and is unlikely to make his big league debut until 2018.

"Colin Moran will come up in the first half and trail only Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in batting average as the team's starting third baseman for the final two-thirds of the season."

Verdict: He came up in the first half, but the rest of that could not have gone much worse. Luckily I don't have any documented A.J. Reed predictions from last season.

20 Hitter Predictions For 2017

1. Brendan Rodgers posts an OPS north of .950 over the first half, but there are significant home/road splits, with him doing most of his damage at Lancaster. California League pitchers are mercifully spared when he is promoted to Double-A in July or August.

2. Gleyber Torres picks up where he left off in the Arizona Fall League and Grapefruit League, making quick work of Eastern League pitching en route to a promotion to Triple-A in mid-May. From there he continues to rake, replacing Chase Headley at third base for the Yankees in early August.

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets his first cold weather exposure in the Midwest League as a newly turned 18-year-old and still hits .280/.360/.460. He gets a taste of High-A toward the end of the season and enters 2018 as a top-three prospect for dynasty leagues.

4. Juan Soto hits over .300 with double-digit home runs as an 18-year-old in the Sally League and finishes the year as a top-10 prospect for dynasty leagues.

5. Jesse Winker takes over as the everyday left fielder for the Reds on May 1 and posts an OBP over .350 while hitting double-digit home runs en route to a top-three N.L. ROY finish.

6. Jake Bauers, who won't turn 22 until after the season, makes his MLB debut just before the All-Star break, and hits .265 with eight home runs over the rest of the season.

7. Lucas Erceg, who played just 42 games at Low-A Wisconsin last year, finishes the year at Triple-A Colorado Springs and posts an .850-plus OPS with 20-plus home runs across multiple stops in the upper levels.

8. Delvin Perez, who finished 2016 in the Gulf Coast League, gets off to a bit of a rocky start in the Midwest League, but finishes strong and enters 2017 as a top-20 prospect for dynasty leagues, profiling as a five-category shortstop.

9. Aaron Judge strikes out over 35 percent of the time and gets sent back to Triple-A by mid-June.

10. Clint Frazier replaces Judge with a mid-June promotion and while he fails to hit over .270, he hits 10-plus homers and steals 10-plus bases over the rest of the season.

11. Trent Clark, who hit .231 in 59 games with Low-A Wisconsin last year, posts a line in the .280/.360/.440 range with High-A Carolina before getting a late-season promotion to Double-A Biloxi.

12. Magneuris Sierra, who has yet to play above Low-A, spends the bulk of the season with Double-A Springfield and finishes the season as a top-50 prospect for dynasty leagues.

13. Andres Gimenez makes his stateside debut and shines in the Appy and New York-Penn leagues, posting a batting average over .300 at each stop en route to finishing the season as a consensus top-50 prospect for real life and fantasy.

14. Ramon Laureano returns to Double-A Corpus Christi, where he leads the Texas League in OPS over the first half of the season. He finishes the year at Triple-A and enters 2018 as a top-50 prospect for dynasty leagues.

15. Wander Javier hits double-digit home runs in his stateside debut, ascending to the top spot in the Twins' system and top-75 prospect status for dynasty leagues.

16. Lucius Fox, who hit .207 in 75 games at Low-A last year, hits over .275 with 20-plus steals for Low-A Bowling Green before a midseason promotion to High-A Charlotte.

17. Derian Cruz, who hit .183 with three steals in 25 games in the Appy League last year, hits above .265 with 30-plus steals in his full-season debut.

18. Yandy Diaz logs more MLB plate appearances and posts a higher wRC+ for the Indians in 2017 than Bradley Zimmer.

19. Matt Chapman hits 15-plus home runs in fewer than 70 games with Triple-A Nashville, earning a late-June call-up. He subsequently strikes out over 35 percent of the time in the majors while hitting under .230, which earns him a demotion back to the Pacific Coast League in late July.

20. Dylan Cozens, who led the minor leagues with 40 home runs at Double-A Reading last year, hits fewer than 25 homers with a batting average below .250 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.