The Z Files: Relievers -- From Tears to Tiers

The Z Files: Relievers -- From Tears to Tiers

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

It's rankings season. Buckle up for all sorts of lists: some by position, others by category, but all intended to help guide drafts and auctions.

Don't worry, this is not another diatribe on how rankings shouldn't be taken verbatim. Instead, I'm going to take a unique approach to classifying everyone's favorite group, relievers.

I was recently tasked with ranking and profiling the top 40 relievers. While it wasn't for RotoWire (hey, a guy has to make a living), I'm going to share the fruits of my labor, in a general sense.

To be honest, I left the project feeling more optimistic about the closer pool than when I first embarked on the assignment. This doesn't mean I'm confident drafting saves will be a breeze, just that I see more pathways to success than I intuited working blind.

The key is not ranking/tiering the inventory as a whole, but rather to approach things via classifications. Of course, there will be a ranking within each group, but everyone will be compared via the same criteria with a greater delineation between occupants.

The approach in the draft then entails deciding which classification(s) to target. As is the case with all strategies, more than one road map should be at the ready. You know what Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face,"

What follow is my current tiering, with an explanation for each classification and some comments within each grouping. The placement between and within tiers is fluid

It's rankings season. Buckle up for all sorts of lists: some by position, others by category, but all intended to help guide drafts and auctions.

Don't worry, this is not another diatribe on how rankings shouldn't be taken verbatim. Instead, I'm going to take a unique approach to classifying everyone's favorite group, relievers.

I was recently tasked with ranking and profiling the top 40 relievers. While it wasn't for RotoWire (hey, a guy has to make a living), I'm going to share the fruits of my labor, in a general sense.

To be honest, I left the project feeling more optimistic about the closer pool than when I first embarked on the assignment. This doesn't mean I'm confident drafting saves will be a breeze, just that I see more pathways to success than I intuited working blind.

The key is not ranking/tiering the inventory as a whole, but rather to approach things via classifications. Of course, there will be a ranking within each group, but everyone will be compared via the same criteria with a greater delineation between occupants.

The approach in the draft then entails deciding which classification(s) to target. As is the case with all strategies, more than one road map should be at the ready. You know what Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they're punched in the face,"

What follow is my current tiering, with an explanation for each classification and some comments within each grouping. The placement between and within tiers is fluid and subject to change once roles are more defined.

Elite

Josh HaderDominance covers for command and control blips
Liam HendriksWill no doubt sign to close for a contender
Aroldis ChapmanHard to believe he's already 33 years old
Ryan TeperaLooking to build on an MVP caliber season

The elite tier is usually small, but this year it's a candidate or two shy of normal. Plus, the top closers are likely to linger on the board longer than normal.

Steady

Taylor RogersNo issue with bumping Rogers to elite
Raisel IglesiasSolid rebound from subpar 2019
Brad HandMay not get big bucks, but should close
Kenley JansenNo issue dropping to risky

The dearth of options in this tier is driving the consternation among early drafters. It's common to eschew a stud, confident in one's ability to find saves from this group. Without the usual peace of mind offered by this historically lusher tier, drafters feel like they're scrambling.

Risky

Edwin DiazArguably the best stuff among relievers
Will Smith39 million reasons he'll take over with Mark Melancon gone
Ryan PresslyDurability a question
Trevor RosenthalIf 2020 is the new baseline and Rosenthal proves durable post-TJS, he's elite - two big ifs
James KarinchakHas the skills, but unproven
Richard RodriguezSuccess as a setup man, limited history in the ninth
Craig KimbrelFinal 2020 stretch reminiscent of his salad days
Rafael MonteroTaking well to bullpen, but still health and performance risk
Rafael DolisSolid skills, but Toronto could opt to bring in a more experienced closer
Mike MayersA two-month stretch doesn't erase years of mediocrity
Daniel BardFeel-good story in season largely devoid of smiles, but shelf life of Rockies closers is tenuous

Here's where most of the typical steady options reside. Chances are, half of this group will have a solid season, and an argument can be made for each -- some more plausible than others. Many early strategies will likely entail targeting someone in this group that the drafter feels good about. There will no doubt be shuffling within this classification once roles flesh out in the spring, 

M*A*S*H Unit

Kirby YatesReturn from bone spur removal generally yields positive results, but will be 34 years old this spring
Roberto OsunaAvoided TJS, at least temporarily
Jordan HicksShould be healthy but effectiveness, at least right away, unclear after long layoff
Corey KnebelVelocity close to returning, but 13.1 IP isn't enough to deem clear of risk after TJS
Jose LeclercEven if healthy, may not have closer gig
Hunter HarveyHas displayed closer skills but can't shake injury bug
David RobertsonI'm old enough to remember when he was good

There are some intriguing options throughout this grouping.  This time last season, Yates and Osuna were viewed as elite. Knebel was previously on the verge, while Hicks has elite potential. As is always the case, it's a matter of one's risk tolerance and deciding if the reward outweighs the risk, factoring in team construction at the time. If Yates proves healthy in the spring and is indeed lined up to close, he jumps to the head of the risky class.

Lloyd Christmas

Nick AndersonOne guy is not the Rays' style
Matt BarnesIf Boston spends elsewhere, moves up to risky tier
Diego CastilloActually, Tampa Bay pitchers deserve their own classification
Emilio PaganPadres usually promote from within, but could look outside this time
Jeremy JeffressLots of competition
Daniel HudsonHad job last season mostly by default
Ryan HelsleyLive arm capable of several roles
Hector NerisComing off an uneven year; team in win-now mode, likely to seek more reliable option
Aaron BummerSexy speculative pick, but White Sox apt to bring someone in, plus I'm not as impressed with skills as others
Emmanuel ClaseHas the stuff, but also coming off PED suspension
Drew PomeranzMore useful in setup role
Giovanny GallegosSeems to always be the fallback option
Alex ColomeWill smoke and mirrors act continue to work?
Brandon KintzlerSame as Colome, but even more smoke and bigger mirrors

Yes, I'm telling you there's a chance. There are 25 viable names preceding this grouping. Ergo, in a 15-team league, several drafters will be forced to take a shot at someone in this tier. While it's prudent to wait on your initial closer, procrastinating on the second could be playing with fire.

Solid Setup

Devin WilliamsCould close for 29 other teams
Tanner RaineyIf newfound control proves real, could be looking at a near elite closer
Freddy Peralta 
Trevor May 
Blake Treinen 
Pete Fairbanks 
Brusdar GraterolNeeds to translate stuff to strikeouts
Chad Green 
Zack Britton 
Jake Diekman 
Evan MarshallQuietly effective
Tyler Clippard 
Tyler Duffey 
Adam Ottavino 
Victor Gonzalez 
Joakim Soria 
Archie Bradley 
Chris Martin 
J.B. Wendelken 
Yusmeiro Petit 
Matt Strahm 

There are several speculative closer candidates in this group. Many have superior skills to those discussed previously. With the current pitching landscape, everyone listed here merits at least a reserve spot on a 15-team roster. Not to mention, a bunch are more attractive in points scoring than back-end closers, as their volume of innings and strikeouts mitigates their paucity of saves.

Did I miss someone? Do you have a beef with someone's classification or placement within the group? Let's talk about it in the comments.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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