This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Floating a middle reliever into your lineup in lieu of a lesser starting pitcher has been a popular ploy for the past few years. Heading into this season, the need to do so was amplified, as a study of the 2019 schedule revealed fewer two-start opportunities than usual. The reasoning was, the difference in innings between a weaker starter and a high-volume reliever on a weekly basis has dwindled to the point the potential strikeouts are nearly equal while the reliever should post superior ratios with a better chance of logging a win. Plus, in today's landscape, the reliever has a chance to fall into a handful of saves, if not fully take over ninth-inning duties.
With mounting evidence the ball is juiced, the necessity for ratio protection is even more paramount. As a result, fantasy teams released their back-end starters to pick up a dominant set up man, with a history of throwing a lot of innings.
Unfortunately, many of the targets didn't get the memo. That is, the early numbers of many of the perceived top middle relievers are downright ugly. By my count, there are at least 19 middle relievers doing more harm than good. In no particular order: Caleb Ferguson, Nate Jones, Robert Gsellman, Tony Watson, Chris Martin, Yoshihisa Hirano, Seth Lugo, Chris Devenski, Jonathan Holder, Richard Rodriguez, Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Josh James, Joe Kelly,
Floating a middle reliever into your lineup in lieu of a lesser starting pitcher has been a popular ploy for the past few years. Heading into this season, the need to do so was amplified, as a study of the 2019 schedule revealed fewer two-start opportunities than usual. The reasoning was, the difference in innings between a weaker starter and a high-volume reliever on a weekly basis has dwindled to the point the potential strikeouts are nearly equal while the reliever should post superior ratios with a better chance of logging a win. Plus, in today's landscape, the reliever has a chance to fall into a handful of saves, if not fully take over ninth-inning duties.
With mounting evidence the ball is juiced, the necessity for ratio protection is even more paramount. As a result, fantasy teams released their back-end starters to pick up a dominant set up man, with a history of throwing a lot of innings.
Unfortunately, many of the targets didn't get the memo. That is, the early numbers of many of the perceived top middle relievers are downright ugly. By my count, there are at least 19 middle relievers doing more harm than good. In no particular order: Caleb Ferguson, Nate Jones, Robert Gsellman, Tony Watson, Chris Martin, Yoshihisa Hirano, Seth Lugo, Chris Devenski, Jonathan Holder, Richard Rodriguez, Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Josh James, Joe Kelly, Jesse Chavez and Chad Green.
Granted, not all of these were draft considerations in 12 and 15-team mixed leagues, but they would have been in play once the season began, assuming the others were already on a fantasy roster.
The elephant in the room is relievers hurl the same reduced-drag baseball as their starting counterparts. It's not a foregone conclusion they'll perform as expected. Plus, they're subject to small sample variance. When a starter gives up a couple first-inning tallies, he usually stays in and gets a chance to turn it into a palatable, if not officially a quality, start. How's that for a new metric: PS, the palatable start. Anyway, relievers get saddled with the poor frame without a chance to add to the innings denominator in the ratio stats. Sure, over time many get their ERA and WHIP down to a reasonable level, but unless you have the reliever active for the entire time, you're burdened with worse-than-planned-for ratios.
Favoring skills over outcomes remains the prudent approach when evaluating players of any ilk. The larger the sample, the more narrative comes into play. That's a discussion for a different time. Skills should be the sole focus when analyzing relief pitchers, with added emphasis on home runs in today's landscape.
While starting pitchers that miss bats and don't walk hitters can get away with being a fly ball pitcher, the optimal reliever induces a majority of grounders. This is the first filter when looking for ERA support. High strikeouts and low walks are also primary traits, serving to not only help ERA, but also WHIP.
Here are some relievers to consider for the rest of the season. Admittedly, many are likely unavailable, so it behooves the fantasy enthusiast to continually monitor the inventory as candidates emerge from this subset all the time, costing next to nothing. In this vein, middle relievers are the Moneyball element of fantasy baseball.
These are listed in no particular order and leave out options currently at or neat the top of their team's pecking order with regards to saves, like Hector Neris and Matt Barnes, as they're almost universally rostered already.
Nick Anderson, Miami Marlins: Anderson won't continue to punch out 53 percent of the batters he faces (takes off Lord Obvious cap). His walk rate is also like to inch up from four percent. Still, Anderson's peripherals are exactly what's desired from a middle reliever. The only caveat is he's allowing more fly balls than grounders, but Marlins Park should keep the homers in check.
Lou Trivino, Oakland Athletics: Deservedly, Blake Treinen gets the love, but Trevino is a solid bridge. Despite following up last season's rookie campaign with a better sophomore season, there's a good chance Trevino is available in mixed leagues with 15 or fewer teams.
Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros: It will take a shallow league for pickup, but Pressly profiles to be one of the best setup men in the game, building on a superb April.
Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds: Stephenson joins the long list of starters whose development was derailed via injury, only to find his niche out of the bullpen. The 26-year old righty has all but ditched his changeup, relying on a fastball/slider combo and adding a tick of velocity to both.
Caleb Ferguson, Los Angeles Dodgers: Three homers in 13 innings butchered Ferguson's April. The first question is whether he's a victim of the juiced ball or snake bit? Based on an average fly ball distance of just 308 feet, it's the latter. The sweet spot for more homers is an average distance a significant 10 to 15 feet further. The other concern is a high walk rate. Last season, Ferguson walked 12 in 49 frames. To date, he's issued eight free passes in only 13 innings. Five have come his last four outings, which also include a pair of long balls. Assuming he's not hurt, this has the makings of a short-term confidence issue. More often than not, the manager puts the pitcher in lower-leverage scenarios, where he's able to back on track.
John Brebbia, St. Louis Cardinals: Brebbia has quietly been a solid setup man since 2017. His walks are up this season, and he's a fly ball pitcher, but Busch Stadium suppresses power and Brebbia's elevated strikeout rate is supported by a 15.8 percent swinging strike mark.
Jonathan Holder, New York Yankees: On another team, Holder could be racking up saves. With the Yankees, he's lucky to sniff a hold opportunity. The 25-year old right-hander began the season allowing a run in six of his first seven outings but has been spotless over his last four, fanning seven with two walks in his last four stanzas.
Brad Wieck, San Diego Padres: The Padres have a knack for finding useful relievers, with Wieck being the latest. His control isn't elite, but Wieck misses ample bats. His 1.50 WHIP is fueled by a .333 BABIP ripe for regression.
Ben Taylor, Arizona Diamondbacks: The former Red Sox and Indians farm hand landed with the Diamondbacks in early April. Taylor doesn't have an established track record so he's more of a deep-league dart, but he pitched well for Triple-A Columbus last year. Arizona does a decent job managing their bullpen, so Taylor isn't likely to "take one for the team." He's off to a good start with eight whiffs and only one base on balls in six innings, albeit with two long balls.
Will Harris, Houston Astros: Harris checks all the boxes except volume, as his age and injury history cause the Astros to temper the 36-year old right-hander's innings. As such, Harris is best suited for AL-only action.
Seth Lugo, New York Mets: Take away two stinkers to begin April and Lugo sports a 1.61 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and three walks in 16.2 innings.
Chad Green, New York Yankees: Green is currently in timeout, getting things back on track with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In two innings, he's whiffed five with one walk. It shouldn't be long before he's summoned back to the Bronx. Two years of top-notch work out of the bullpen is more telling than one month of woes to begin 2019.
