The Z Files: My Top 20 Second Basemen (Plus Two)

This week's tour around the diamond stops at the keystone with my top 22 second baseman. Second base is an odd position where quantity trumps quality. There isn't much at the top, but with so many players carrying multi-position eligibility including second base, it runs quite deep. The dearth of studs could change as there are a few up-and-coming youngsters at the position.

With respect to eligibility, recall last week I decided to include the player at each position he qualifies, so there will be some redundancy. This week, I'm abridging that a little. The players will still be listed at each position; however, I'll extend the list to write about 20 new players each week. That is, last time, DJ LeMahieu and Max Muncy made the cut at first base, so I've listed 22 second baseman to avail 20 pithy blurbs.

22. Michael Chavis, Boston Red Sox

Chavis barely makes this list after just missing the top 20 at first base. If it's clear he'll play every day come the spring, the second-year slugger will leapfrog up several spots, into the mid-teens. Currently, Boston doesn't have anything locked down on the right side, but things could change. Bobby Dalbec is possible for first base while the club could look for some cheap veteran help at either spot. Chavis' rookie campaign was part and parcel to that of many young batters when it came to contact issues. Opposing pitchers induced him to chase high heat before he adjusted. Then, those right-handed hurlers capable of throwing a sweeping slider off the outside edge were able to get him to fish. He was in the process of making that adjustment when he was shelved with an oblique injury, ending his freshman campaign in mid-August. Chavis is expected to be healthy. If he can control the zone better, he has plenty of pop and could be a solid contributor to a deep lineup.

21. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

Yikes! Odor is the fantasy baseball equivalent of a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. His average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrels are strong. He's even developed acceptable patience, as a nine percent walk rate is passable nowadays. However, his contact is declining and despite the favorable Statcast numbers, he wasn't able to fully take advantage of the favorable hitting environment of Globe Life Park, and now the club is moving to a venue reportedly less friendly for offense. It's also a question how much the Rangers will continue to let Odor run as his success rate is horrible. He swiped 12-of-24 in 2018 before edging over .500 with 11-for-20 last year. Challenging the Mendoza line two of the past three seasons will keep Odor's price low. The cost is sufficient to draft him for counting stats (at least 30 homers three of the previous four seasons) and see if Odor can cut back on the strikeouts. If not, the middle is deep enough to move to Plan B.

20. Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies

Just when I thought I was out, he pulled me back in. Man, I wasn't the only one. Hampson entered 2019 as a fantasy darling, a cheap source for steals with some pop courtesy of Coors Field. He smacked five of his eight homers while snagging nine of his 15 bags in September. Is this enough for the stubborn Rockies to hand him the keys to a regular role? Honestly, who knows. Hampson played a lot of center field down the stretch and it doesn't seem likely he'll be full time there with David Dahl, Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia and Ian Desmond in the mix. There's also a logjam in the infield, further muddied when Brendan Rodgers shows he's recovered from 2019's season-ending shoulder surgery. Then there's the uncertainty Hampson will be able play as well as he did down the stretch on a consistent basis. If this were any other organization, the cliché, "Draft skills, not roles," would be apropos. It still is, just don't reach too far, especially if you NEED those steals to compete as they could be hard to find.

19. Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers

I understand Lux crushed Triple-A before his big-league promotion. He's going to be a top fantasy performer. However, he had trouble making contact in the majors, albeit in just 82 plate appearances. Strikeouts haven't been as issue as he has moved up the Dodgers system so it shouldn't be a long-term concern. The other factor is the team has a lot of moving parts, so he isn't likely to play as much as others ranked higher, even if he solves his contact woes. If the club somehow moves Corey Seager, the story changes. Currently, there's too many options at second to award Lux the spot, though the good side of a platoon is a plausible scenario. A fantasy roster balances floor with ceiling. Lux certainly has the ceiling. Just realize his floor is a trip back to Oklahoma City.

18. Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals

It feels like he should be ranked higher, especially since skipper Mike Shildt appears to be more reliant on running, benefiting Wong. The problem is his support data is risky. Yes, some players thrive despite a low hard-hit rate, but their margin of error is thin, resulting in a wide range of outcomes. Wong's average exit velocity is low. This may help him beat out grounders and lead to some dying quails in the outfield, but it's not a profile to elicit the warm and fuzzies. Wong's Gold Glove defense will keep him in the lineup. He's just likely to hit low in the order, mitigating some of his running while dinging volume.

17. Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates

Newman opened last season as a reserve infielder, then he missed a few weeks in April with a lacerated finger. Once back, it didn't take long before he secured the full-time gig at shortstop which is where he's ticketed in 2020. His hit tool is his money-maker, as he possesses excellent contact skills. Newman needs this, as his average exit velocity is weak and he doesn't coax many walks. His speed is 84th percentile, buoying the 11th-best infield hit rate last season. Just as with Wong, this is a risky profile to bank on. In addition, his power spike isn't supported by underlying metrics. Newman is a ground ball hitter plus his low average fly ball distance suggests he caught a break on a few of his dozen long balls. He is a league average defender, plenty good enough to check the volume box. He won't win you the steals category, but he can be a quiet contributor at a low cost.

16. Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies

For the second straight season, Hernandez played 161 games. This is noteworthy since it was unclear how much he'd play entering the 2019 campaign. While he didn't have a poor season, it was a down year, especially in the steals department. He was successful on nine of 11 attempts for an outstanding 82 percent rate, but hitting low in an order dependent on the long ball tempered his tries. With Gabe Kapler moving on, perhaps Hernandez will get the green light more often. It would help if he regained his trademark patience. His walk rate dropped to 6.7 percent, half that of the prior season. Perhaps he was selling out for power, as Hernandez's .129 ISO was a new personal best.

15. Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals

Edman is one of those guys where you're not sure where he's going to play, you just know it will be somewhere. Last season, he played ample third base and outfield to qualify at both for fantasy purposes, along with second. That said, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat last season's rookie campaign, possibly relegating him to a super-utility role. Even so, Edman should contribute just enough across the board to be a fantasy asset. Nothing stands out in his profile, with contact his strongest suit. However, he doesn't walk nor hit the ball especially hard. If you're looking for a little bit of everything, Edman is in play. If you prefer more category impact, there are better options for power or speed.

14. Starlin Castro, Free Agent

Castro picked the right time to set career highs in homers and RBI, even if he was aided by the funky ball. He enters free agency in his age-30 season, capable of playing second or third as he manned the hot corner frequently for the Marlins down the stretch. Castro is still allergic to walks but his contact remains excellent. His average exit velocity isn't great, but it's stronger than many ranked behind him. Keep in mind Castro's last two seasons were spent in South Beach, one of the poorest scenarios in terms of venue and team context. If he lands in a spot where he can hit high in the order, likely for a second-division team, he could move up a peg or two.

13. Mike Moustakas, Free Agent

Moustakas may never play another game at second base, but the ability to do so certainly adds to his allure -- as does his power, with 101 homers over the last three seasons. It may seem off that his average dropped during his two seasons with the Brewers, but it's a perfect reminder of the disconnect between parks favoring homers and those plus for hits. Kauffman Stadium suppressed homers while aiding hits. Miller Park did the opposite. Moustakas fanned a little more with Milwaukee but the majority of the decline was park related. As such, he could rebound in the batting average department, depending on where he signs.

12. Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

There's a lot to like here. Fellow second-generation infielders Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may get more ink, but don't overlook Craig's kid. Biggio's strikeout rate is an issue, there's no getting around it. Plate patience helps balance it along with boding well for an improved approach as he matures. It's the enticing power-speed combo that renders him so fantasy friendly. He runs with 81st percentile sprint speed, on a Jays team showing a penchant for running more than previous iterations with a different coaching staff. Biggio's average exit velocity isn't special, but his fly ball tendencies assist power. Though, keep in mind fly balls not leaving the yard are almost always outs, further denting his batting average. You can't draft Biggio in a vacuum, or he'll harpoon batting average. If you can absorb it, he should fill the counting stats across the board. His walks will really help in OBP and points leagues.

11. Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks

For much of 2019, he manned the hot corner. When Jake Lamb returned, Escobar shifted to second, gaining eligibility at the position to begin this coming season for the first time in his career. As you may intuit, his career-best 35 homers were strongly influenced by the ball, as his average fly ball distance fell in the sweet spot where the added five to 10 feet of flight resulted in disproportionately more homers. Escobar will probably open the season at second as there are several candidates to play the corner infield spots. If it's clear the ball will be different, he lines up to be someone hurt more than others, so don't pay for last season's power spike.

10. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

Covered in My Top 20 First Basemen.

9. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

McNeil underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his right wrist in early October but is expected to make a complete recovery in time for the spring. Admittedly, his 2019 performance caught me off guard. A strong batting average wasn't at all surprising, but the power spike was the eye-opener. A significant uptick in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity without sacrificing much contact did the trick. McNeil hit fewer fly balls which hindered power, though the extra grounders aided his average, a trade he'll take, even in this power-hungry environment. There's some risk McNeil's exit velocity reverts to a lower level, but a high contact rate offers a bankable floor. Third base and outfield eligibility don't hurt either.

8. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yes, I was driving the Marte bandwagon before it was cool, but in the interest of full disclosure, I was hoping his latent speed would manifest. He did swipe 10 bags, but it was the 32 dingers that had the fantasy world abuzz. Like his teammate Escobar, Marte enjoyed a boost from the ball experiencing less drag. That said, he incurred substantial gains in exit velocity and launch angle, so the falloff should be fairly soft. Still, the early market is paying for last season's numbers, which is aggressive.

7. Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

In terms of expected earnings, just one dollar separates Torres and the next three hitters, so he could just as easily be fourth. Even with that disclaimer, there are likely many questioning the rank as Torres pounded 38 big flies last season, despite missing 18 games. To be honest, I'm not entirely comfortable with it either and may adjust, but after my initial deep dive, I've opted to leave things the way they are. It boils down to expecting a slight drop in power, with batting average dovetailing. Torres' hard-hit rate isn't impressive. He takes advantage of his home digs more than displaying shining skills. The other component is, other than teammate DJ LeMahieu, the second basemen ahead of Torres all run, and steals are more valuable than in recent seasons. Every year, there's a couple of players for which I'm willing to be wrong. Torres is one of 2020's examples.

6. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

Covered in My Top 20 First Basemen.

5. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

Albies is going to turn just 23 a week after New Year's. Yeah, I know Ronald Acuna is even younger, we'll get to him in a few weeks. Albies' walk rate may be low, but his approach is beyond his years. His contact is stellar, and he hit the ball with more authority last season which was reflected in his batting average. There's still room for growth, which is scary. Albies has already proven durable (158 and 160 games the past two seasons). He's demonstrating he can improve. Admittedly, I was skeptical at first, but I've flipped. We're looking at a future first-round talent.

4. Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers

Perhaps controversial as it contradicts a couple of my credos, this is my rank and I'm sticking to it. The concern revolves around Hiura's excessive punchouts, usually a red flag in my book. Helping to counter them is an astronomical hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Sure, Hiura won't maintain the uber level he displayed in his rookie season, but he should fan fewer times as well. His sprint speed is only a tick above average, but he's a heady runner with the ability to pick his spots. The job is his, though I'm taking a leap of faith he can play every day, a trait Albies has already proven he possesses.

3. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

For the first time since 2013, Altuve failed to eclipse .300, falling just short at .298. That said, he set a new personal best in homers while playing the fewest games since his rookie campaign. Of course, the ball played a huge part as Altuve has never made much hard contact, but he sure knows when to turn on a pitch and deposit it into the Crawford Boxes. I'm not yet ready to drop him further, but it wouldn't be shocking if any of Torres, Hiura or Albies outproduced Altuve this season.

2. Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

This is a good example of not blindly drafting a rank. It's not like he's devoid of power, with mid-teens homers quite plausible. It's more much that Merrifield's utility is derived from batting average. Don't get me wrong, it's a category and important to consider. But, unless he returns to the 30-something steals level, Merrifield's a nice but not difference-making contributor in any individual category. Drafting him early means you'll be chasing counting stats later, albeit with a nice batting average buffer. Still, it's always best to choose, not chase, as you're at the mercy of the table with respect to players available at the right spot to bully up counting stats.

1. Jonathan Villar, Baltimore Orioles

Forget the name, forget the team. Ignore the fact Villar isn't a very good "real" player. If he plays every day, he's a fantasy monster, case closed. Who else is going to play in Baltimore instead of Villar? That's right, no one.