Regan's Rumblings: Surprisingly Good Starts

We knew we'd see some strange things in a 60-game season. Cody Bellinger has a 1.286 OPS in his last 10 games after a .490 mark through his first 19. Shohei Ohtani is batting .181 and Christian Yelich .194. Amed Rosario has a 20:0 K:BB in 80 plate appearances. David Dahl in 74 at-bats: 0 HR. Luke Voit in 74 at-bats: 10 HR. With that introduction, here are a few players off to surprisingly good starts:

Magneuris Sierra, OF, MIA

Sierra may not be a full-time starter just yet, as he did not start either Sunday or Monday, but he should get his chance before long. Sierra is batting .278/.372/.417 with four XBH and four steals in 44 plate appearances. He seems unlikely to ever hit for much power and is still looking for his first big league home run after 306 trips to the plate, but the speed is elite. The question was always: Would he hit enough and get on base enough to prove worthy of regular playing time? Prior to this season in 91 games, Sierra's OBP stood at just .282, so while the sample size is low, could he be a guy taking a big step forward with his plate discipline? For a guy with a 3.8 BB percentage at the Triple-A level, it's probably best to be a bit skeptical, but he should at least get more looks to see if the progress is real.

Luis Garcia, 2B, WAS

I always liked the scouting reports and that he was always young for his level, but expecting a guy born in 2000 coming off a .257/.280/.337 slash line in Double-A to be this good a year later in the big leagues was seemingly unrealistic. It's just 28 plate appearances, but Garcia is batting a surprising .357/.379/.500 with a home run. The 7:1 K:BB is a bit concerning from a guy coming off a 3.1 BB percentage in Double-A, but he's always had a K percentage in the 15 percent range, which shows good contact skills, particularly for a 20-year-old. Garcia stands 6'2", so there's a decent chance he fills out and develops 20-plus HR power, but it will be his approach that defines which direction his career goes in. With Starlin Castro likely out for the year with a wrist injury, Garcia should continue to receive plenty of playing time for the near term, though if Carter Kieboom starts hitting, the Nationals could plug him into third base and Asdrubal Cabrera into second. Garcia is probably more of a dynasty play at this point, but until the batting average starts plummeting, you may as well ride the hot hand.

Jacob Stallings, C, PIT

It's likely no one was expecting much from a 30-year-old catcher with just 282 career plate appearances, but Stallings is apparently now the team's starter ahead of John Ryan Murphy. Through 59 plate appearances, he's batting .300/.386/.400 with a homer and 14:7 K:BB. There isn't really much to suggest that this is sustainable however, as over 225 career games at the Triple-A level, Stallings has hit just .265/.317/.408 with 15 home runs and a 5.5 BB percentage. He did hit .291 there from 2017 to 2019, so if we think about his ceiling, it's probably something in the .260 range with 10 home runs over a normal season. In terms of competition for playing time, Luke Maile is out for the year with a finger injury, Murphy has hit .183 since 2015, and none of the Pirates' top 20 prospects are catchers. This seemingly makes Stallings the favorite to top the depth chart this year.

Jesse Winker, OF, CIN

Winker had a solid 2019, batting .269/.357/.473, but it just seemed like he had yet to tap into his full potential. So, what's driving his 2020 success (.314/.448/.629)? A couple are obvious. First is that he's suddenly hitting lefties (1.017 OPS) after posting a .443 OPS against them last year, and a .690 mark in 2018. It's just 21 plate appearances though, so caution is advised. Second is that he's sacrificing some swing-and-miss for power. Winker's swinging strike percentage is up year-over-year from 7.1 to 11.4, and the ISO is up from .204 to an elite .315. He's also swinging at fewer pitches (37.9 swing percentage vs. 2019's 44.1), so the walks are up and, in theory, being more selective has led to chasing bad pitches with less frequency. In terms of the power, it also seems safe to attribute some of his 2020 power simply to having his shoulders at 100 percent. Winker has struggled with shoulder woes the past couple years, and that likely sapped some of the power we're now seeing.

Ian Happ, OF, CHC

As a former No. 9 overall pick, Happ has yet to fully establish himself as a regular, spending a good chunk (99 games) at Triple-A last season, where he hit an uninspiring .242/.364/.432. Happ has always drawn a fair share of walks, but in 315 career big league games prior to 2020, Happ's K percentage stood at an elevated 32.5, hence his pre-2020 slash line of .246/.340/.476. It is still a bit high this hear at 25.2 percent, but with a 16.5 BB percentage, Happ's BB/K stands at a career-best 0.65. Happ is swinging at fewer pitches this year, particularly pitches outside the zone. Combine that with career highs in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and you can understand why his slash line has improved to .286/.412/.595. He's taken over the leadoff spot with Kris Bryant (wrist) sidelined, so perhaps he'll mix in a steal here and there, though he has just one to date. Regardless, it seems he's the team's regular center fielder for the foreseeable future.

Dylan Cease, SP, CHW

A lack of control continued to haunt Cease last year, as his 4.3 BB/9 combined with a 1.9 HR/9 led to his 5.79 ERA. Cease is a hard thrower, improving the velocity of his fastball a full mph over last year to 97.6 mph this season. His control is improved (3.4 BB/9), but the home runs are still there (near a 2.0 HR/9) and that all combined with a low 6.3 K/9 leaves Cease with a 5.93 FIP, which is about in line with last year's ERA. His 9.6 percent swinging strike rate is also quite low, making it seemingly unlikely that he'll be able to maintain his current 3.13 ERA. In half of his six starts, Cease walked three or more, and in just one of those starts he was able to not allow a home run. With Cease, it's not just the relative lack of control. It's also command. Just watch him pitch and see where the ball ends up versus where the catcher is calling for it. Until he figures that out, expect the results to be all over the map.

Austin Slater, OF, SF

Elbow and now groin injuries have limited Slater to just 59 plate appearances, but the early returns are promising: .347/.458/.653 with four homers and a surprising six stolen bases. In 544 plate appearances across three seasons prior to this year, Slater had hit just .254/.335/.368 with nine home runs and eight steals. He did have a nice .316/.405/.517 line in Triple-A from 2016 to 2019, though lots of hitters fare well in the Pacific Coast League and fail at the big-league level. Slater is absolutely destroying lefties (.450/.577/.950), with his .812 OPS against RHP being relatively modest. What can we glean from this small sample size? I think we saw enough last year to say that he's a legitimate big-league starter. 2019's 45 percent hard-hit rate was excellent, and it's gone up to 47.2 in 2020. He draws walks, posting BB percentages of 11.5 and 13.6 the past two years. Slater did post back-to-back seasons (2018 and 2019) with a 30.7 K percentage, but he's lowered that to 22.0 so far this year. Things like a .406 BABIP and 44.4 percent HR/FB rate won't continue long term, but early returns are promising.

Kyle Lewis, OF, SEA

Lewis is red hot, going 14-for-27 with three home runs and a nice 3:7 K:BB in his last eight games to lift his overall line to .368/.456/.585 with seven home runs. His 14.4 BB percent is excellent, and he's striking out a reasonable 22.4 percent of the time. Sure, a .444 BABIP isn't sustainable and his 35.3 percent hard-hit rate is relatively low, but no one is really expecting him to continue to hit at this rate. Lewis showed good power last year with six homers in just 75 plate appearances, but he also posted an ugly 29:3 K:BB. This year in 50 MORE plate appearances (125), that ratio sits at 28:18. He also had just a .740 OPS in double-A and had no Triple-A experience, so the hot start is surprising. It's easy to predict regression, but Lewis looks like a star. Mariners fans can start dreaming about a Kelenic/Lewis/Rodriguez outfield.

Anthony Santander, OF, BAL

A .249/.285/.434 career hitter prior to this year, Santander is off to a nice start, batting .287/.333/.661 with 10 home runs in just 123 plate appearances. Santander did hit 20 homers last year, but his 4.7 BB percentage limited his value somewhat. He's pushed that to 5.7 percent this year while dropping the K percentage from 21.2 to an elite 13.8 in 2020. His 45.9 percent hard-hit rate is excellent, and he's hitting the ball into the air more as well, so encouraging signs are everywhere. We would like to see the walk rate trend up, and perhaps it is with an 11.9 percent mark in his last nine games. There isn't much in his minor league numbers the past couple seasons to suggest that he'd be a foundational type piece, so I'll need to see more before buying in completely.