Regan's Rumblings: Regan's Sleepers

At some point it may get rough to figure out what to write about, but as of now, the season has yet to be cancelled, so you will continue to be subjected to this column.  Thanks to the 3-5 people that still read it!  Hope you are all staying safe during these trying times. This week, I'll be covering my all-sleeper list. With all the free data available these days, it's become tough to really identify sleepers whom other owners don't also have on their sleeper list, so perhaps we need a new term? How about "the guys who could outperform their ADP"?  Clunky, but descriptive. Anyway, here are my TGWCOTADP:

Note: Criteria included the following based on our Custom MLB Rankings list:

C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B – player must be outside our top 20 for their position

Outfield, Starting Pitcher – player must be outside our top 20 for their position

Relief Pitcher - must be outside our top 30

Catcher

Tom Murphy, SEA – His latest RotoWire player note states that he is continuing to diligently work out at home in a "variety of ways." You can take that a number of ways, but regardless, he's the team's no-doubt starting catcher. Murphy no longer has to compete with Omar Narvaez, now in Milwaukee, so it would seem that he would be in line for the lion's share of the catcher at-bats. In just 281 plate appearances in 2019, Murphy hit .273/.324/.535 with 18 homers. With a .340 BABIP, there is some batting average downside, and it may be a stretch to think he can duplicate that year's 22.2 percent HR/FB rate, but 20-plus homers appears to be a lock, and if he can improve upon his 31.0 K%, he should be able to hit at least in the .250s. That should be enough to vault him into the top 15 of fantasy catchers. His 2019 splits are certainly interesting:

vs. LHP - .347/.408/.695

vs. RHP - .211/.252/.401

You're certainly not using his 2019 Strat-o-Matic card against right-handers, but for 2020 roto leagues, I wouldn't panic about these splits. In 2018 in Triple-A, Murphy posted a .927 OPS. He should be fine.

First Base

Mike Ford, NYY – I was asked about Ford in the comments section of another article, so I figured I'd cover him here. I must admit, the more I look into Ford, the more I'm intrigued. Sure, he turns 28 in July, but the production in 163 PA last year was eye-opening — .259/.350/.559 with 12 homers and solid ratios — 10.4 BB% and 17.2 K%. The main issue with Ford is playing time. He's behind Luke Voit on the first base depth and secondary to several guys at DH, and there's no indication he can play outfield. That said, what is YOUR confidence level in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton being healthy at the same time? Do we think both Luke Voit and Mike Tauchman can remain productive consistently? It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Ford gets 80 percent of the starts at either first base or DH this season, making his current 585 ADP potentially ridiculously low.

Second Base

Robinson Cano, NYM – It's obvious that Cano is on the backside of his career, but should he really be the 39th-ranked second baseman behind the likes of Brian Dozier and Jurickson Profar? Perhaps, but I'm not convinced Cano is done as a fantasy option. Cano did drop off to .256/.307/.428 last year after hitting .303/.374/.471 the year prior. He's played in just 187 games combined the last two years. That said, both his hard-hit rate (37.9 percent) and exit velocity (90.6 mph) were both solid last year, and the 16.3 K% was excellent. Cano still has four years left on his regrettable 10-year $252 million deal, so he should continue to get plenty of playing time as the Mets lobby to get the DH to come to the NL so they can use a guy like Jeff McNeil or even prospect Andres Gimenez at second base eventually.

Shortstop

Luis Urias, MIL – Urias has the look of a post-hype sleeper after hitting just .223/.329/.326 in 249 PA with the Padres last season. When you consider his .305/.403/.511 effort in Triple-A over parts of three seasons, he's been a disappointment. On the plus side, Urias is still just 22, and things did seem to finally click for him late last year, as he rallied to hit .300/.371/.425 in September over 89 PA. He maintained an excellent 12.2 BB% in Triple-A with a solid 19.4 K%. He could grow into 20 home run power with perhaps 10 stolen bases and a .300-plus average. He'll be the team's shortstop this year.

Third Base

Scott Kingery, PHI – For a guy who signed a pre-debut six-year deal, Kingery has been a big disappointment. He did improve from .226/.267/.338 in 2018 to .258/.315/.474 last year, though that's nothing to brag too much about. On the plus side, his BB% did improve slightly to 6.8 percent, though a 29.4 K% remains elevated. Kingery did notch an above-average 45.9 percent hard-hit rate and his ISO nearly doubled to .216. He'll also contribute with his legs, swiping 15 bases last year. It's easy to see him developing 25-plus HR power, but what can we expect in the batting average department? Unless he can quickly get his strikeout rate under control, it's tough to see more than a .260ish average, but we should see some progress this year.

Outfield

Byron Buxton, MIN – This guy again?  Yep, this guy. I get it if you've moved on, but there's something about No. 1 overall amateur draft picks that makes me keep coming back. Buxton is now 26 and the owner of a .237/.292/.414 career batting line with a whopping one season (in four full seasons) with 100-plus games played. That said, we did see some progress in the 87 games he managed last year. Buxton cut his K% from 29.8 to 23.1 percent while walking a decent 6.4 percent of the time. His .251 ISO was easily a career high, and he did improve against RHP, posting a .798 OPS against them versus his .702 mark from 2017-2019. One of the fastest players in the league with elite defense, I still think things are going to come together over the next year or two, particularly if he can stop getting hurt diving for balls in the outfield and running into walls.

Willie Calhoun, TEX – Despite the broken jaw at the hand of Julio Urias, Calhoun appears to be making progress toward being ready for the start of the season, whenever that may be. I think the case can be made that Calhoun broke out in 2019, as he appeared in 83 games and hit .269/.323/.524 with 21 homers in 337 PA. He struck out in just 15.7 percent of his plate appearances, though despite a decent 40.7 percent hard-hit rate, his .262 BABIP suppressed the batting average, though that could also be due in part to a lack of speed. He'll need to make progress against LHP to stay in the lineup every day, as he hit just .225 against them in 111 plate appearances last year, though that also came with seven home runs. Calhoun should be the everyday left fielder, and if he can get regular at-bats, a .280-30-90 type of season is possible (prorated, of course).

Domingo Santana, CLE – After a breakout 2017 that saw him hit .278/.371/.505 with 30 home runs for the Brewers, Santana's bat seemed to lose some pop the last two years as a 30-plus K% caught up with him. He'll now join his third team in the last three years, and it does appear he would up in a good situation. Santana is projected to be the team's DH, so perhaps focusing on hitting full-time will help. Don't expect more than .260 in the average department, but he's still only 27, so a return to 30-HR power is certainly possible. Santana needs to get off to a good start, as there's going to be guys like Bobby Bradley and perhaps Jake Bauers nipping at his heels.

Starting Pitching

Aaron Civale, CLE – I fully expect Civale to open as the team's No. 5 starter despite his being optioned to Triple-A last month. Civale made a strong impression in his 10 starts in 2019, posting a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 57.2 innings. A modest 92.8 mph average fastball led to a relatively low 7.2 K/9, but Civale's 2.5 BB/9 was excellent and should go lower considering that rate sits at just 1.4 in 381.1 career minor league innings. A bit more velocity would help, but Civale's control gives him a relatively high floor.

Lance McCullers, HOU – Tommy John surgery erased McCullers' 2019 season, but he's expected to open 2020 in the Astros' rotation. McCullers doesn't appear on the surface to be a good 2020 play, as he hasn't thrown a big league pitch since October 2018, hasn't ever made more than 22 starts in a full season, has a mediocre 1.27 career WHIP and now back from surgery, it seems unlikely his command and control will be there right away. That all said, McCullers plays for a great team, he throws hard and his 10.1 career K/9 is excellent.

Alex Wood, LAD – Prior to things shutting down, Wood was named the team's No. 5 starter, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Wood spent time at the now-famous Driveline Baseball Academy this spring, focusing on improving his mechanics. Results were mixed in limited innings this spring, but he did show improved velocity while posting a 7:0 K:BB in 5.2 innings, though he did allow four runs. Thinking Wood can return to his 2017 levels (16-3, 2.72 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 152.1 IP) is probably overly optimistic, but he's in a good situation where he's had success.

Mitch Keller, PIT – In five of his 11 starts last year, Keller allowed at least five runs, leading to a 7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. That, of course, is awful, but his 65:16 K:BB in 48 innings is excellent. Scouts grade both his fastball and slider as plus pitches, and his change is a bit above average. Keller's 3.18 FIP and .475 BABIP suggests bad luck, and with a new pitching coach in town, Keller could have a breakout 2020. There appears to be a good chance that Keller doesn't repeat last year's 11.14 road ERA.

Chris Archer, PIT – Maybe this doesn't end well, but seeing Archer as the No. 115-ranked starting pitcher was a surprise. Not that I expected to see him top 20, but talentwise, it seems low. Archer, though, has a 4.70 ERA in two seasons with the Pirates, averaging just 25 starts a season after posting four consecutive 32-plus start seasons with the Rays from 2014-2017. Despite the back-to-back poor seasons, Archer did put up a 10.2 K/9, so at least he's still missing bats. What needs to happen is obvious, though not easy to pull off:

1.      Improve his control. Archer's BB/9 spiked from 3.0 to 4.1 last year.

2.      Limit the damage caused by HR's. Archer's 1.9 HR/9 last year was due in large part to a GB% that plummeted from 44.6 to 36.3 percent. He needs to bump that up considerably.

Ideally, Archer benefits from his new pitching coach, gets off to a hot start, and is traded to a contender.

Relief Pitching

Joe Jimenez, DET – With 4.31 and 4.37 ERAs the last two seasons, Jimenez hasn't looked the part of a closer, but he's the guy and we've seen closers for bad teams get 30-plus saves in the past, so why not Jimenez? If you want further encouragement, here's what Jimenez did from July 20 on last year: 24.2 innings, 2.55 ERA, 9-11 in saves, 11.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. Overall, his 12.4 K/9 was elite, though like others on this list, he had major (2.0 HR/9) issues with the long ball that will need to be addressed.

Brandon Kintzler, MIA – With just a 6.3 K/9 for his career, Kintzler is far from an exciting closing option, but it's not like he's competing with Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley for the job. Kintzler had a 2.68 ERA last year, and with the other closing options being Yimi Garcia and Ryne Stanek among a host of uninspiring others, he'll get the nod early. There's some bust potential here, of course, but that's why you can get him late.

Hunter Harvey, BAL - It was just 6.1 innings, but Harvey's 2019 relief efforts in Baltimore were impressive — one run allowed with 11 strikeouts. He'll take his 98-plus mph fastball into a full-time closer role this year, and though I'll want to see another heathy season to put 2015-2018 (just 62.2 total innings ... as a starter) as less of a concern, there's some optimism.