Regan's Rumblings: Preseason Closer Rankings

I hope you all have had an excellent offseason filled with time with family and ideally, a fantasy football championship or two. Feb. 1 is really the date that I start getting excited about the coming baseball season, and this year is no exception. I'll be taking my ninth consecutive trip to Glendale, Arizona to see my Dodgers in action. Previous highlights included seeing a mysterious Cuban outfielder named Yasiel Puig nearly hit a home run out of the stadium (2013) and the Cactus League debut of a then 17-year-old Julio Urias (2014). Urias had a 1-2-3 inning that day, fanning two.

Anyway, in this space this season, it's really anything goes. I like to focus on analytics, so you'll see a lot of discussion around FIP, xFIP, WAR, swing strike rate, HR/FB%, etc. You'll get my sleepers and busts, under-the-radar prospects, and whatever tickles my fancy that particular week. I'll give you some bold and maybe not-so-bold predictions for the coming year.

This week I want to break down the 30 closer situations. I've never been one to spend many draft chips on the elite closers, though I've done that occasionally in shallower leagues in recent years. Here I'll look at the 30 pitchers I think will be closing come Opening Day and some sleepers to watch. In my experience, upwards of 40-50 percent of guys who are designated closers on Opening Day lose their jobs (at least temporarily) due to injury, ineffectiveness, or simply because management thinks another guy can do better.

ELITE

New York Yankees (Opening Day Closer: Aroldis Chapman. Top Setup Man: Dellin Betances)

Chapman and Kenley Jansen are arguably baseball's top two closers. Chapman returns to The Bronx and looks to be a lock for another 100 strikeouts, 40 saves, sub-2.00 ERA, and sub-1.00 WHIP. Betances will be back as one of baseball's best, non-closing relievers.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Opening Day Closer: Kenley Jansen. Top Setup Man: Grant Dayton)

Buoyed by a new $80 million contract, Jansen will again look to his cutter in an attempt to notch his fourth season with 100 or more strikeouts and his third 40-plus save campaign. He'll be similarly elite in the ERA and WHIP categories, making Jansen one of the top two or three closers off the board. The Dodgers signed Sergio Romo this week to pair with Dayton (13.3 K/9 in 26.1 IP) as Jansen's top setup men.

Baltimore Orioles (Opening Day Closer: Zach Britton. Top Setup Man: Darren O'Day)

It's going to be impossible for Britton to top 2016's Cy Young-caliber season in which he notched 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA. Considering his 1.99 FIP, expect an ERA more in the 2.00 range this year, but he's easily a top-three closer. O'Day would appear to be the No. 1 setup man for now, but Brad Brach (2.05 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 92 strikeouts in 2016) could very well lead the team in saves if Britton gets hurt or falters.

SEMI-ELITE

San Francisco Giants (Opening Day Closer: Mark Melancon. Top Setup Man: Hunter Strickland)

Melancon solidifies the ninth inning for the Giants. Strickland and Derek Law will be the top two options for top setup duties.

Boston Red Sox (Opening Day Closer: Craig Kimbrel Top Setup Man: Tyler Thornberg)

Thornberg put up a better ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 than Kimbrel, though obviously the latter will return as closer. Thornberg though should get a look in deeper leagues for his three-category value.

Chicago Cubs (Opening Day Closer: Wade Davis. Top Setup Man: Carl Edwards Jr.)

There are some red flags with Davis, including a 2016 elbow issue, a jump in BB/9 from 2.7 to 3.3, and the loss of one full mph in velocity. He did finish strong, but if Davis misses time with injury, Edwards (13.0 K/9 in 36 IP) could see save opportunities along with perhaps ex-closer Hector Rondon.

St. Louis Cardinals (Opening Day Closer: Seung Hwan Oh. Top Setup Man: Kevin Siegrist)

Oh may have baseball's best nickname in "The Final Boss", and he backed that up last year with 103 strikeouts and a 1.92 ERA. He'll be the team's closer this year and though he's 34 with a fastball that averages just 92.8 mph, Oh has the look of a top-five closer — assuming the league doesn't magically figure him out. Plan B would seem to be some combination of Siegrist and Jonathan Broxton.

Toronto Blue Jays (Opening Day Closer: Roberto Osuna. Top Setup Man: Jason Grilli)

A 1.1 HR/9 is Osuna's only real red flag, as the rest of his numbers (10 K/9, 0.93 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 95.8 mph average fastball) are all elite. Behind Osuna, the options are less impressive, with the veteran Grilli (12.4 K/9, but also an ugly 4.9 BB/9) seemingly next in line. Joe Smith is another option, while Danny Barnes could eventually emerge as a sleeper.

VERY GOOD

Seattle Mariners (Opening Day Closer: Edwin Diaz. Top Setup Man: Steve Cishek (Injured))

Diaz is going to be drafted after guys like Mark Melancon and Wade Davis in most leagues, but if you're looking for a potential 40 saves and 100 strikeouts a couple rounds later, he's your guy. Cishek underwent hip surgery in October, so he may open on the disabled list, though he should be back by May. Evan Scribner and Shae Simmons represent intriguing Plan C's.

Tampa Bay Rays (Opening Day Closer: Alex Colome. Top Setup Man: Brad Boxberger)

Colome looks to be a top-10 closer that could approach 40 saves and 100 strikeouts. He's been mentioned as a trade candidate all winter, which would be a concern for AL-only owners primarily, as he would likely be appointed the closer for his new team. If he does get traded, Boxberger would be the ext man up followed perhaps by reclamation project Shawn Tolleson, if healthy.

Houston Astros (Opening Day Closer: Ken Giles. Top Setup Man: Will Harris)

A year-over-year spike in his HR/9 rate from 0.26 to 1.1 netted Giles a 4.11 ERA despite an elite 14.0 K/9 and 97.3 mph average fastball. He was one of just six relievers to hit triple-digit strikeouts last year, so if he can get the HR rate back down, Giles has top-five fantasy closer ability. Given his 2016 All-Star status and solid run as a closer, Harris gets the top setup nod over Luke Gregerson, at least for now.

Detroit Tigers (Opening Day Closer: Francisco Rodriguez. Top Setup Man: Bruce Rondon)

Rodriguez enters his age-35 season having averaged 42 saves over the past three campaigns. That said, his K/9 took a dip below 9.0 (8.02) for the first time in his career, and his 3.2 BB/9 was his worst mark since 2012. K-Rod also lost a little velocity and allowed nearly a HR per nine innings. Should things go further south or if he gets traded (both are very possible scenarios), Rondon may take his 97-mph fastball into the ninth inning. Should that happen and Rondon's control problems reoccur, the Tigers will hope that someone emerges from the pile of Justin Wilson, Shane Greene, and Mark Lowe.

Kansas City Royals (Opening Day Closer: Kelvin Herrera. Top Setup Man: Joakim Soria)

The last man standing from the elite bullpen trio (Wade Davis, Greg Holland) that helped the 2015 Royals win the World Series, Herrera enters 2017 as the team's undisputed closer. Coming off a 10.8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, Herrera profiles as an elite closer when you subsequently consider his 97.1 mph average fastball. Soria would seem to be the 8th inning guy despite a 2016 WHIP of 1.46 and a career-worst 1.35 HR/9. Should Soria falter, the Royals will hope a guy like Alec Mills or Kevin McCarthy emerges.

Chicago White Sox (Opening Day Closer: David Robertson. Top Setup Man: Nate Jones)

There seems to be a decent chance that Robertson is traded (Nationals?), leaving Jones as an intriguing speculative option. His 2016 numbers (10.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.29 ERA, 96.8 mph average fastball) suggest he'd do well as a closer.

Cleveland Indians (Opening Day Closer: Cody Allen. Top Setup Man: Andrew Miller)

Allen is on the short list of relievers with 2.50/1.00/100/40 (ERA/WHIP/K/SV) ability, but the presence of Miller continues to cloud his fantasy outlook. If I had to guess, I'd say Allen puts up 30 saves and Miller nets 15 given his versatility to record more than three outs per outing.

GOOD

New York Mets (Opening Day Closer: Addison Reed. Top Setup Man: Hansel Robles)

I expect a 30-game suspension for Jeurys Familia, leaving Reed in line for saves through early May at a minimum. Familia, though, should regain the closer's role pretty quickly once he returns.

Miami Marlins (Opening Day Closer: A.J. Ramos. Top Setup Man: Brad Ziegler)

Ramos' keeper league owners dodged a bullet this winter when the club failed to sign Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, leaving Ramos in place to try and get back to the All-Star game for the second consecutive year. Ramos isn't without risk, as his BB/9 took a wrong turn from 3.3 to 4.9 last year, but he certainly has the ability to keep the job over Ziegler and Kyle Barraclough (14.0 K/9, 5.5 BB/9).

Colorado Rockies (Opening Day Closer: Adam Ottavino. Top Setup Man: Greg Holland)

In Ottavino, Holland, Jake McGee, Chad Qualls, and Jason Motte, the Colorado bullpen is littered with guys with prior closing experience, so this one could go in any direction. For now, we'll go with Ottavino based on Denver Beat writer Patrick Saunders' tweet, but in reality, this is a job that could change hands multiple times this season. Ottavino's 2.67 ERA in 27 innings would look a lot more impressive (1.04) if we took out one five-run shellacking at the hands of the Dodgers on 8/31. Holland could eventually be an option, but expect him to need time to shake off the rust.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Opening Day Closer: Tony Watson. Top Setup Man: Daniel Hudson)

Watson took a step back last year, as his velocity dipped a bit and his BB/9 rose for the third consecutive season to 2.7. A pending free agent, Watson could find himself in another organization this summer, but even if he's not dealt, he could face competition from Daniel Hudson, Felipe Rivero, or even Juan Nicasio. I'm keeping a close eye early on the Pittsburgh bullpen hierarchy.

Texas Rangers (Opening Day Closer: Sam Dyson. Top Setup Man: Jeremy Jeffress)

Coming off a 2.43 ERA and 38 saves, Dyson is a lock to open as closer and should stick in the job all year. That said, his peripherals (7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9) are below average for a closer, so some struggles wouldn't be surprising. Jeffress (27 saves for the Brewers last year) and Matt Bush are next in line in that order should Dyson falter.

BELOW AVERAGE

Atlanta Braves (Opening Day Closer: Jim Johnson. Top Setup Man: Mauricio Cabrera)

Johnson recovered from a brutal stint with the Dodgers in 2015 to post a 3.06 ERA and 68:20 K:BB in 64.2 innings with the Braves last year. That netted him a two-year extension and he'll open 2017 as the team's closer. Given his uneven performance since his back-to-back 50-plus save seasons (2012-2013), Johnson seems likely to either be on shaky ground or in another uniform at some point in 2017. That would open the door for Cabrera and his 100.1 mph average fastball or perhaps Arodys Vizcaino if he proves healthy. Cabrera put up just a 7.5 K/9 despite the velocity and his 4.5 BB/9 is in line with his minor league work, but you can't teach that kind of arm strength.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Opening Day Closer: Fernando Rodney. Top Setup Man: Jake Barrett)

Rodney turns 40 in March, but that hasn't stopped him from recording 67-plus appearances in each of the last five years. He did a great job keeping the ball on the ground last year (2.7 G/F) and his 10.2 K/9 and 94.5-mph fastball were very closer-like. What wasn't was Rodney's 5.1 BB/9, a metric that has turned decidedly south since his incredible 2012 season (0.60 ERA, 1.8 BB/9). Expecting his control to magically return at age 40 is foolish, so keep an eye on the team's setup men early in the year. For now, Barrett (94.9 mph average fastball, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 3.49 ERA in 2016) is my next in line

San Diego Padres (Opening Day Closer: Brandon Maurer. Top Setup Man: Carter Capps)

Maurer looks to be the guy coming off a 13-save season. His 4.52 ERA is less than impressive, but once he started closing, Mauer posted a 3.09 mark in 32 innings. He also averages 95.3 mph with his fastball, so Maurer could be a sneaky sleeper option for 30-plus saves. Capps is coming off Tommy John surgery, but the last time he was healthy in 2015, Capps put up a ridiculous 16.8 K/9 in 31 innings for the Marlins while averaging 98.1 mph on his fastball. He's an interesting reclamation project to say the least.

Milwaukee Brewers (Opening Day Closer: Neftali Feliz. Top Setup Man: Corey Knebel)

Feliz makes my short list for closers most likely to be flipped at the deadline after signing a one-year deal to close for the Brewers, a team that looks to be headed nowhere. Feliz finished 2016 on the DL, but apparently he's healthy, and after putting up a 10.2 K/9 last year, the Brewers are optimistic. In the event of a trade or injury, Knebel (4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) appears to be next in line. If you're looking for a deep sleeper, Jacob Barnes has some appeal.

Minnesota Twins (Opening Day Closer: Brandon Kintzler. Top Setup Man: Trevor May)

Glen Perkins' shoulder surgery was extensive, and unfortunately, I don't see him returning anywhere near the form that allowed him to post three consecutive 30-plus save seasons. May misses plenty of bats (12.7 K/9), but is coming off a back injury and a 1.5 HR/9 season. That leaves Kintzler as the guy most likely to open as closer given his 17 saves last year. Kintzler, however, allowed more hits than innings pitched and his 5.8 K/9 was well below average. Ryan Pressly is the sleeper to watch here given his 95.1-mph average fastball.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

Los Angles Angels (Opening Day Closer: Cam Bedrosian. Top Setup Man: Huston Street)

This looks like a three-way competition for closing duties this spring that ncludes Andrew Bailey in addition to Street and Bedrosian. Street has 324 career saves, but is also coming off knee and oblique injuries that limited him to 22.1 innings and a 6.45 ERA. He could still win the job if he proves healthy, as the Angels would certainly love to showcase the pending free agent for potential trades. Bedrosian (1.12 ERA in 45 games) has the most upside and is the team's future at the position. Bailey is an intriguing sleeper given his past successes, and in 12 games after coming over to the Angles last year, he posted a 2.38 ERA. This will be a competition to watch this spring.

Cincinnati Reds (Opening Day Closer: Raisel Iglesias. Top Setup Man: Drew Storen)

Manager Bryan Price is already talking about a closer-by-committee situation here, but how many times have we heard similar talk in February, only to see the manager settle on one guy early on in the year? Iglesias has the best stuff of the group, having posted a 2.53 ERA and 9.5 K/9 last year as he transitioned from the rotation due to shoulder issues. Iglesias is the guy to own for now, but we could also see Storen, Tony Cingrani, and Michael Lorenzen get looks in the ninth.

Washington Nationals (Opening Day Closer: Shawn Kelley. Top Setup Man: Blake Treinen)

I fully expect the Nationals to bring in a closer via trade prior to Opening Day, but for now, Kelly (2.64 ERA, 12.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) is coming off an excellent season and is the current favorite for the job.

Philadelphia Phillies (Opening Day Closer: Hector Neris. Top Setup Man: Joaquin Benoit)

Manager Pete Mackanin said last month that Jeanmar Gomez would have a chance to win back his job this spring despite a 4.85 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Gomez did manage 37 saves before being stripped of closing duty, but I don't expect him to win the job back. I like Neris (11.4 K/9, 102 K's, 2.58 ERA) given his raw stuff. However, Neris finished poorly with a 4.85 ERA in his last 13 games, so maybe even Benoit has a shot at this one. This will be an open competition, and it may not be fair to have the Phillies this low on the list given Neris' upside, but there's still quite a bit of uncertainty here.

Oakland A's (Opening Day Closer: Ryan Madson. Top Set-up Man: Sean Doolittle)

By the latest count, the A's have four former closers in Madson, Doolittle, Santiago Casilla, and John Axford. Madson gets first crack, but this is a situation that could be fluid very early in the season. Though he notched 30 saves last season, Madson blew seven opportunities and posted pedestrian numbers across the board (3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), which was a bit of a step back from his 2.13 ERA season the year prior. Furthermore, Doolittle had some issues with the long ball (1.4 HR/9) last year, but he also posted a 10.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.