Mound Musings: The Biggest Surprises (So Far) of 2022

Amazing as it may seem, we are closing in on the halfway point of the 2022 season. To say there have been surprises would be a huge understatement. It was difficult to predict pitching performance given the abbreviated spring training, and it really hasn't gotten much easier. There have been eye-opening success stories, and highly significant disappointments, plus the not so surprising injuries.  

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers, and, in some cases, future potential at this point in the season. This is a mix of kids and veterans trying to convince me they are fantasy contributors. Every year a handful of pitchers break through, and the numbers suggest these might be the guys we need to evaluate to determine what we can expect in the second half. I'll start with a few pitchers making a significant impact, and then touch on a few who have disappointed.

First half pitching stars who may have been surprises:

Martin Perez (Rangers 4-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) – Generally ignored in spring drafts, Perez returned to Texas this offseason, and no one (including me) thought much about it. The 31-year-old southpaw hadn't posted an ERA south of 4.00 since 2013, and there was nothing to suggest he would be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation filler. He was still being ignored after a few successful outings, and I decided I better have a look. The surprise light lit up. His velocity wasn't different, but his pitch mix was different, and, combined with much more consistent command (a career low 2.18 walk rate) he was limiting base runners and hard contact. Most importantly, I couldn't find a reason to expect any significant regression. Pitchers can occasionally change in a big way.

Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers 8-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) – There were two major questions surrounding Gonsolin entering 2022. First, were the shoulder issues he dealt with in 2021 behind him, and second, what would his role be on a deep Dodgers pitching staff. Most expected him to be either their fifth starter, or to serve as a swingman, but the depth dried up, and he came out taking a turn every five days. Now apparently healthy and getting everything in sync, he has been pitching like a legitimate top-of-the-rotation ace. He has cut his walk rate in half from his injury-plagued 2021, and his ground-ball rate has jumped with significantly less hard contact. He strikes out about one batter per inning, and if the good health persists, he'll be a big part of a very good team.

MacKenzie Gore (Padres 4-2, 2.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) – I've liked just about everything about Gore since the first time I saw him pitch. He eventually made it to the top of my kids list, and I was preparing for a big splash. Unfortunately, he missed time with injuries, and the pandemic came at an awful time, slowing his development, so we've had to be patient. He began to drop on many prospect lists as he struggled, but I have a long memory, and I was pretty confident he would get things back together. Well, he's back. He's trusting his very good stuff, and that stuff has him locked into a rotation spot on a very deep staff. He likes to work up and down in the zone using his mid-90s fastball to set up devastating breaking pitches. Like many young lefties, his command can still be a bit inconsistent, but he has really cleaned up his motion to help lock in a more reliable release point, so I expect progress there. Patience is paying off.

Kyle Wright (Braves 7-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) – I have always liked Wright's stuff, and despite some pretty miserable, albeit brief, trials, I held out hope that he could one day work up to his potential. It has always been about the need for him to trust his stuff and throw strikes, especially early in counts. Unfortunately, me knowing that wasn't enough. Wright needed to see it. As this season got underway, it started to look like the light had come on. His whole demeanor on the mound was different. He was challenging hitters and the results were notable. He was available in most leagues and I scrambled to add him where possible. My only real concern was his potential for a backslide. Sometimes young pitchers decide to be aggressive and trust their stuff, but when a rough outing comes along – and they always do – doubts can resurface, and the nibbling can return. It only compounds the problem. He still gives in to that temptation occasionally, but for the most part he is giving himself a chance to succeed long term.

Nestor Cortes (Yankees 6-2, 1.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) – I don't think many people saw the Nestor phenomenon coming. He figured to be a fifth starter capable of reasonable stats pitching in front of a potent offense. His performance to date certainly qualifies as a big surprise. I've watched parts of several outings and I have to admit I'm still a bit surprised. He has good but not really great stuff, and his command is generally pretty good, but again, not great. What he does have is a deceptive motion. He can be difficult to pick up, and he's good about moving his pitches around so hitters can find it hard to square it up. That said, I still think some regression is to be expected. He'll still likely qualify for a lot of wins with that explosive offense, but his peripherals could suffer a bit as teams learn his tricks. Let's consider him good, not great, going forward.

And now, the flip-side of the coin:

 Trevor Rogers (Marlins 3-5, 5.87 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) – After a highly successful 2021 where Rogers tossed 133 innings and compiled a 2.64 ERA with a1.15 WHIP, he moved way up on many draft boards. Unfortunately, this has been a very different season. He has yet to find any consistency. I made a point to watch him again in his last start against the red-hot Phillies. It was a struggle to say the least. His mates staked him to a 4-0 lead, but it didn't last. He needed 94 pitches to record eight outs, giving up four runs on five hits and a career-high six walks. He's a mechanical mess right now, and he's clearly shopping for a consistent arm slot and release point. His catcher was all over the place as Rogers had difficulty locating pitches, especially his fastball. You all know the words to this song, he's only 24-years-old, he's left-handed, and command can come and go. Right now, it's gone, but the talent is still there, and I'm pretty confident he'll eventually get things back in sync. I just can't say how long it might take.

Jose Berrios (Blue Jays 5-2, 4.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) – I often recommend patience when looking for a higher-ceiling pitcher to take that next step. In the case of Berrios, even my legendary patience is being tested. The problem is inconsistency, which almost suggests a pitcher losing focus. I'm not in his head, so I can't say for certain, but even the middle of a start his pitches can lose sharpness, and his command can start to wander. Then, just when you are ready to bail out, he'll come out like the Cy Young candidate you know he can be. That's where we are right now. The Jays' opening day starter was generally ineffective for most of April and May, posting an ugly 5.62 ERA. June rolled around, and in his last three starts he has pitched 22 innings and allowed just six earned runs with 26 strikeouts. On that team, just solid peripherals would generate significant fantasy value. If only someone could put Mr. Hyde away for good.

German Marquez (Rockies 3-5, 6.09 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) – Call me old-school, but I am, and probably always will be, skittish when it comes to Colorado pitchers. I can clearly understand some optimism. Every now and then a pitcher comes along who appears to have found a way to survive in hitter's heaven – or at least be a nice streamer for his road starts – but it usually doesn't last. Coors Field is a mentally taxing environment, and it wears down most pitchers. At his best, Marquez has pretty good stuff, maybe good enough to use in favorable road matchups, but he allows too many base runners with an elevated walk rate and too much hard contact. And, remember, we are just coming into hot weather when the ball travels farther. I think I'll continue to avoid Rockies' arms.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Some might ask why the Rays' Shane McClanahan isn't on the biggest surprise list, and it's a legitimate question, but he had so much upside I guess I consider him a smaller surprise. I will note, however, that I remain at least a bit concerned about what I see as a potential problem. He gives up a lot of hard contact.
• Arguably perhaps the best pitcher in the game today, Miami's Sandy Alcantara isn't on the list either. With him it wasn't if he would become dominant, but when. I love how he attacks hitters, how he keeps them off balance with a great mix, and maybe most of all, how he consistently pitches deep into games.
• If I had a Rangers starting pitcher like Jon Gray on my fantasy roster, I think I would offer their manager a few bucks just to make sure Eli White was in the lineup when my guy took the mound. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken wrist, but it seems like he saved a couple runs every time he played the outfield.
• The Dodgers took a huge hit when Walker Buehler left his last start with a flexor tendon strain. No surgery, at least not yet, but he won't throw at all for six to eight weeks, making a September return the best-case scenario. This could explain some of his rather underwhelming results this season.

Endgame Odyssey:

Let's continue our game of musical closers. Our first contestant is Boston where three different relievers – Matt Strahm, Tanner Houck and Hansel Robles – have taken a turn over the past few days. Strahm is the best of that bunch, but he would be better staying in a set-up role. How about Cincinnati? Try Alexis Diaz, Tony Santillan, Art Warren, Hunter Strickland and even Joel Kuhnel. It's anyone's guess which of these Triple-A arms will lead the Reds in saves. My advice, is stay away, stay far away. Long term injuries to Andrew Kittredge and J.P. Feyereisen should solidify the closer status of Tampa Bay southpaw Colin Poche, although Jason Adam could figure into the mix at times. The Phillies have come up with a winning formula. Score more runs than your bullpen allows. Corey Knebel and his balky shoulder is out as closer, and a committee is planned, but look for Seranthony Dominguez to emerge. The White Sox placed Liam Hendriks on the injured list with a forearm strain. Kendall Graveman is the top candidate to handle closing duties.