Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Mound Musings is all about interaction. I appreciate the questions, and discussing whether this guy or that guy is the best pitcher to have on a roster is what it's all about. That said, over the past couple of years, Life, the Universe, and Everything has gradually become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers. I just experienced what I consider something of a revelation. For this edition, I'll begin with that, and follow it up with some general observations about pitching, scouting and the state of the game. So, without further ado, let's go:

Home Runs Cost Money: Yes, it came as something of a revelation. Teams with lower budgets are figuring out they can buy stolen bases even if they can't afford home runs, and in today's game, stolen bases can translate into more runs. A lot more runs. It seems like some teams are running wild, but could there be more to come?

The big money teams, looking for more offense, just belly-up and buy a Joey Gallo. He typically goes one-for-five with three strikeouts, and maybe, on a good day, a homer. However, the rule changes that brought on bigger bases and hobbled any attempt to hold runners on base, have made running at will the order of the day, and the speed – not that base stealing absolutely requires actual speed these days – can be found pretty easily without breaking the bank.

Stolen base attempts are up, and the success rate is an almost scary 80 percent. A long accepted "very good" success rate is around 75 percent or maybe slightly lower. That basically means the stolen base is something of an underutilized approach. Teams are just now realizing they can probably run even more and benefit from it.

From a fantasy standpoint, I think that will require owners to adjust upward (again) the number of steals it will take to place higher in that category. For pitchers, at least slowing the running game down and reducing walks (the bane of baseball in 2023), which could become a double or even a triple more often than not, will need to be curtailed. The league average WHIP is an ugly 1.40ish. For me, I am making a lower WHIP an even more critical focus for my fantasy teams going forward.

Finish what you start: I was browsing some baseball history, and I came across a graphic from 1971 featuring the major league leaders in complete games that season. For younger readers or those relatively new to the sport of baseball, in the fairly recent past, pitchers would start a game, and finish it, resulting in what was called a "complete" game. The graphic featured a picture of Ferguson Jenkins, one of my all-time favorites who went start-to-finish in 30 games that year to lead MLB. There were eight other pitchers who tossed 20 or more complete games including guys like Vida Blue, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson. How would that be for a rotation?

How does that compare to this year? As we head for the halfway point, it is a hotly contested race with the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi sneaking into the lead all by himself. He has two. About 10 other "workhorses" are tied for second place with one. I think that's why I tend to discount pitchers who usually don't complete six innings. I need guys providing me with quality innings, even if six frames is pitching deep.

Fielding Follies: When evaluating a pitcher, I have long given a little extra credit to those lucky enough to have excellent fielders playing behind them – in particular good fielders up the middle at shortstop, second base, and/or center field. Conversely, I would downgrade pitchers who had poor fielders manning those positions. For the majority, this was a neutral factor; it being neither a positive nor a negative. That's not really the case these days. In the baseball world of the Boring 20s, offense, or at least potential offense, is all that matters. Teams are now routinely stationing players anywhere and everywhere on the field, and whether they can catch or throw is irrelevant.

Maybe it's because their follies are more noticeable, corner outfielders are becoming more and more frustrating, and inconsistent scoring makes it worse. Often, if an outfielder doesn't touch the ball, it is scored a hit. Watching a fielder twist and turn in pursuit of what should be a fairly routine fly ball is painful – and it is likely to be even more painful for the pitcher's WHIP and ERA.

Didn't you used to be Zach Eflin: I frequently mention an angle that has paid dividends for me over the years. I call it "Changes in latitudes" referring to pitchers being traded to another organization. Obviously, some pitchers take a turn for the worse, but quite a few find success – sometimes significant success.

I want to discuss a pitcher having a "career year" in his first season with the Tampa Bay Rays: Zach Eflin. For seven years with the Phillies, I saw him as a fringy league average back-of-the-rotation starter. He pretty consistently posted a WHIP of about 1.30 with an ERA in the lower 4.00s and a bit under a strikeout per inning. Perhaps part of it was a chronic injury (knee) history that even saw him pushed into a bullpen roll at times. When the Rays awarded him the biggest free agent contract in team history, inquiring minds were naturally curious.

Most notably in this scenario, the Rays have a very well-earned reputation for improving pitcher performance. Eflin has been the definition of that reputation, but how? Pitchers don't often just get better without some changes. A much better fielding team can certainly help a great deal, but more often than not, the coaches on the teams that make a positive impact see something and claim, "I can fix him."

In Eflin's case, they moved his starting position to the middle of the rubber making it harder for hitters to recognize strikes, and they altered his pitch mix, almost eliminating his rather mediocre (and hittable) four-seam fastball and replacing it with a solid moving cutter. So far, Eflin is 8-2 with a 1.00 WHIP, a 3.28 ERA and a 9.1 K/9 rate. Those peripherals especially stand out in a season of pitching catastrophes.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• This week I thought I might check out the Royals Jordan Lyles to see if he is as bad as his record suggests. I did, and he is. He actually wasn't totally horrible in his start against the Reds except for one inning, but he missed his spots way too often. The Royals leader in innings pitched is 0-11 with a 6.78 ERA.
• I do think at least some of our old reliable starters are beginning to sort things out. An example would be Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes who just a couple days ago logged his fourth consecutive quality start, which included 33 called or swinging strikes from his 99 pitches. Good trade targets could be hinting.
• Kenta Maeda will make another rehab start later this week as he works his way back from a triceps injury and completes some mechanical adjustments. He has looked good, allowing just two runs over nine innings while logging 13 strikeouts with just one walk. I'm expecting good things from him moving forward.
• I hesitate to fully endorse Ryne Nelson, but Arizona is winning a lot of games, and it's all about pitching and team defense – imagine that. Nelson has been a bit erratic and he doesn't miss as many bats as you would like, but he might be a viable streaming option against weaker opponents. Worthy of consideration.

Endgame Odyssey:

Staying in the desert, I'd like to think Miguel Castro is generally considered the primary closer in Arizona, but it's pretty hard to say for certain. The Diamondbacks shuffle the bullpen deck almost daily including Andrew Chafin and even Scott McGough (sleeper warning). I hate it because I think mixed roles are difficult for many relievers. Kendall Graveman is probably back closing temporarily with the White Sox, but they hope to have Liam Hendriks back in a couple weeks. Rockies' closer Pierce Johnson has been far from reliable in the ninth inning, costing him his job. It looks like they will try Justin Lawrence who has pretty good stuff but pretty shaky command. I wonder if Daniel Bard will ever recover enough confidence to have another go? Hunter Harvey has some limited closing experience, so he could be looked upon as worthy of an audition to take over for a struggling Kyle Finnegan in Washington. If you're desperate for saves, he is flyer material, but with his injury history, I wouldn't mortgage the farm. With Ryan Helsley on the injured list, Giovanny Gallegos will likely get the save chances in St. Louis. In Seattle, Andres Munoz is back. He is the best choice to close, but top shelf set-up guy Paul Sewald has done a stellar job closing, making a time share likely.