This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Today was originally scheduled to be Opening Day, It's going to be hard not juggling game times to see as many pitchers as possible from my watch list. It's Opening Day. Almost every pitcher is on the watch list. It's difficult not watching live baseball, but there is still work to be done. Some leagues have already completed their drafts. Others will be happening soon, while others have been postponed indefinitely pending a more predictable actual Opening Day.
Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season might have been challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with getting the game to the closer. By now, most roles would be fairly well defined. Of course there could still be changes as the season progressed, but there would probably be a Plan A in place. This year is different.
The focus here is on bullpens – but be aware Plan A for some teams, like the season as a whole, has been postponed. And, even more challenging, the length of the delay is yet to be determined. That creates a lot of questions. When will the season begin? I think that's virtually impossible to predict
Today was originally scheduled to be Opening Day, It's going to be hard not juggling game times to see as many pitchers as possible from my watch list. It's Opening Day. Almost every pitcher is on the watch list. It's difficult not watching live baseball, but there is still work to be done. Some leagues have already completed their drafts. Others will be happening soon, while others have been postponed indefinitely pending a more predictable actual Opening Day.
Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season might have been challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with getting the game to the closer. By now, most roles would be fairly well defined. Of course there could still be changes as the season progressed, but there would probably be a Plan A in place. This year is different.
The focus here is on bullpens – but be aware Plan A for some teams, like the season as a whole, has been postponed. And, even more challenging, the length of the delay is yet to be determined. That creates a lot of questions. When will the season begin? I think that's virtually impossible to predict right now. My best guess (and it is a guess, perhaps even tainted with a bit of wishful thinking) is sometime in late-May or June. I have recently read that Korea and Japan appear to be targeting a new Opening Day for their top leagues in mid-late April. That is encouraging. Perhaps they feel the COVID-19 pandemic has reached its peak in their countries.
Meanwhile, pitchers are undoubtedly working out, and staying in reasonably good shape, but they are missing valuable time facing live hitters. The clock is ticking away on the 2020 season, which leads me to believe baseball will jump almost directly into the regular season once the all-clear sounds. It's pure speculation, but I think this favors more experienced pitchers – at least initially. They are known commodities, and they are less likely to be developing new pitches. Good teams typically have more established bullpens, so roles in those pens could be more predictable.
The bottom line: Better teams, with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantast statistics. Ideally, you could fill your staff with pitchers from better teams with the depth to maintain generally static roles for their bullpen arms. That would be ideal, but it would also be difficult. The relievers, especially the true closers, on those teams almost always command a high price/draft pick. There aren't going to be too many bargains. So, we'll explore ways to uncover some bargain arms – teams to watch and what to look for. It's not an exact science; you will invariably pick the wrong heir from time-to-time, but as you become more comfortable assessing the pool of bullpen arms, your success rate will rise. It just might be trickier this season.
Reviewing some bullpens with potential question marks as we look ahead to the 2020 season:
Diamondbacks – The D'Backs love Archie Bradley (understandably) but his ability to pitch in assorted situations is a huge asset, and I still believe they would like to free him up to pitch whenever a critical point arises in a game. They now have Hector Rondon to focus on the eighth inning, and the promising Yoan Lopez, but closer of the future, perhaps even the near future, could be Kevin Ginkel. The veteran, Bradley, probably opens the year as the ninth inning guy, but Ginkel is an important handcuff. He just needs to continue building the team's confidence.
Angels – Last spring the Angels were listed here with several relievers being considered for the closing role. A handful auditioned with mixed results before Hansel Robles took over the ninth inning in May. He did a respectable job, and it earned him the gig leading into 2020. However, Robles will need to avoid struggles to hold off a couple closer alternatives. Before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, Keynan Middleton appeared to be on his way to long term closing duties. And, Ty Buttrey was prominently mentioned as a possibility before scuffling somewhat in his sophomore season. In my mind, Robles doesn't really profile as a closer. He'll have the job when baseball resumes, but he'll need to perform. Personally, I like Buttrey's stuff, but he is probably behind Middleton (also very good stuff) on the food chain.
Giants – Last year at the trading deadline San Francisco went from a strong and deep pen lead by Mark Melancon and Will Smith with a solid set of support pieces to a team in transition. They are still there. I can almost always spot a guy on the roster who looks like a potential closer, but I admit I'm having trouble finding one here. Long time, and competent set-up man Tony Watson will likely open the year as the closer, but he is miscast in that role. The most promising endgamer, Reyes Moronta, underwent shoulder surgery and will miss all or most of this year. Journeymen Trevor Gott and Nick Vincent could get a look, but they aren't the answer. I thought Shaun Anderson might be a possibility, but it looks like the Giants would like to continue to groom him as a starter. This is a story with no clear ending. Stay tuned.
Orioles – The O's might be a team to buck the perceived trend of using more experienced guys in the ninth inning when the season begins. Mychal Givens has more or less served as the primary closer in the recent past, but he was never the long term answer. Too erratic, and vulnerable to lefty swingers, there's a good chance he will give way to young Hunter Harvey. He clearly has all the tools, with an electric arm, but he has just six major league innings, and he has yet to display the requisite command he will need. What do the Orioles have to lose? They are light years from playoff contention. It's a good time to see what they have.
Braves – Unlike most of the teams discussed here, the Braves actually have multiple, viable closing candidates. Former Giants, Mark Melancon and Will Smith head the list, with capable arms, Chris Martin and Shane Greene right behind them. Interestingly, none of the four were in Atlanta at this time last season. The Braves are serious about reaching the post season. I think Melancon will get the lion's share of save chances as long as he is effective, which translates to as long as he is healthy. Southpaw Smith could get occasional match-up chances or be called when Melancon needs a day off. And, my sleeper, as a very solid guy who could be overlooked, but valuable if injuries take their toll is Martin.
Rays – This one is more of a head's up in case you haven't seen the reports. I have been touting Nick Anderson as the likely closer in Tampa Bay since he joined the Rays last summer, and it appears he will have his chance when the regular season begins. This organization continues to be a favorite landing spot for talented arms ready to take a step forward. Keep in mind they also have adequate options in Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado, but I believe Anderson will soon take the reins in the ninth inning fulltime.
Cubs – This is yet another bullpen that appears very volatile to me. And, if it blows up, it's difficult to say who they'll use to put out the flames. When it became painfully obvious that Brandon Morrow might never be healthy enough to be counted upon, the Cubs went out and brought in veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. The good news is Kimbrel saved 13 games in the second half. The bad news is he looked absolutely awful doing it including allowing nine long balls in 21 innings. He'll return as the closer this season, and Morrow is still/again hurt so they'll need to look elsewhere if Kimbrel falters. The best bets would be Rowan Wick, who did a respectable job after joining the Cubs pen last year, or maybe Jeremy Jeffress, who does have some closing experience, but perhaps a more likely solution would be acquiring another endgamer.
Mariners – The M's likely enter the season deploying a timeshare between Yoshihisa Hirano and Matt Magill. Between that pair, like Hirano better. However, the team has collected three dynamic arms that all share one other defining trait – they simply can't consistently throw strikes. Austin Adams, Carl Edwards Jr., and possibly Dan Altavilla could all find themselves in the high leverage mix, if they manage to lock in a release point. That's a very big "if" but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. If I had to pick one to take the next step, it would probably be Adams, but he isn't expected back until mid-season after undergoing knee surgery.
