Mound Musings: A Tale of Two Rotations

Last spring, I took a quick spin through the leagues, evaluating the pitching for each team heading into the season. I made recommendations, naming the pitcher on each MLB staff I would at least consider owning and putting the pressure on a handful of arms I felt might be key contributors on a lot of fantasy league champions. Not too surprisingly, there were several who made me look very good, and a few who did their best to make me look pretty silly. That's how it works without a crystal ball.
Below are two seven-man starting rotations. The first is the best of times – pitchers who met, and in some cases even exceeded my expectations. The second rotation is the worst of times – pitchers who, for a variety of reasons, were big disappointments. Let's have a look at who stood out on both sides of the ledger:

The Best of Times

Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) – Corbin isn't the best pitcher here, but he gets the top spot based on his anticipated price tag, and my projected contribution heading into this season. He was my most highly recommended starting pitcher, and I'm pretty sure his fantasy owners are satisfied. I love strikeouts and exceptional breaking pitches. Corbin gives you both with an assortment ranging from a slider, to a slurve, to a true curveball. Remember, uncovering excellent value is what Mound Musings is all about!

Chris Sale (Red Sox) – Here's probably the top guy on the preseason tout list. Sale has long since moved beyond surprise status, and owning him requires a full investment on draft day, but the return on that investment has been consistently on the positive side of the ledger. He's stingy with the runs allowed and he pitches in front of a dynamic offense so he's a good bet any time he pitches. If I really need a win, give Sale the ball.

Aaron Nola (Phillies) – I have touted Nola since he came out of LSU in 2014. A couple injuries slowed his progress in 2016 and early last year, but fully healthy and working his magic, he has stepped up to be a true ace. It's too bad he was so good in the second half, driving his draft day price tag higher, but he's 16-5 with a 2.42 ERA, and Nola will surpass both 200 innings and strikeouts this year, and he's still getting better.

Blake Snell (Rays) – He came into 2018 needing just a little more confidence, and a bit better command, to put together a breakthrough season. I was anticipating a very good year, but he soared above even my optimistic expectations. His command can still be a little erratic at times, but he now knows he can pitch at the MLB level. And, so do his opponents. There is another Rays' arm on this path. His name is Tyler Glasnow.

James Paxton (Mariners) – Paxton is just an injury-free season from becoming a top tier starting pitcher in my opinion. Unfortunately, some minor injuries again kept him from settling into a groove. The good news is, he has surpassed 150 innings for the first time in his career, and he displayed stretches of pure dominance. Yes, I would have loved more innings (with those beautiful strikeouts), but I'll take his 2018 season.

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals) – He had experienced a couple uninspiring trials in the major leagues before departing for Japan, but he returned a very different pitcher. Mikolas has a live arm, but he pitches to contact, working up and down in the zone to keep hitters off balance. His exceptional command with his whole repertoire looked promising this past spring, so I jumped on his bandwagon with enthusiasm. And, more strikeouts are coming.

Mike Clevinger (Indians) – Clevinger wasn't even assured a spot in the Cleveland rotation coming out of spring training (the Indians were still inexplicably promoting the lackluster Josh Tomlin). He got a chance to start early on and never looked back, piling up 11 wins with a 3.16 ERA while logging 191 strikeouts, and picking up even more quality innings as the regular season comes to an end. A true draft day bargain.

The Worst of Times

Matt Moore (Rangers) – One more chance for Moore who was once at the top of my kids list. He's 3-7 with an ugly 1.69 WHIP and an even more unsightly 7.04 ERA. He lost his starting spot and has been marginally better in long relief, but even though I am notorious for being too patient, he has lost my confidence. If he ever lives up to his once glowing expectations, it will very likely be on someone else's fantasy roster.

Ian Kennedy (Royals) – Over his first three starts in April, he definitely looked like the Royals' starter to own, but the wheels came off, possibly loosened by an oblique injury that eventually sent him to the disabled list in early July. Kennedy has to be totally in synch to be effective, and he was far from that during May and June, so his numbers took a dive. When things are clicking, he can be decent, but when they aren't, ouch.

Jeff Samardzija (Giants) – I really expected a strong season from Shark, but he made just 10 generally ineffective starts. The usually durable hurler suffered from shoulder woes all season, attempting to come back a couple times before being shut down late in the season. We all know how difficult it can be to come back when a shoulder injury pops up, so his 2019 season now looks like a huge question mark as well.

Lucas Giolito (White Sox) – He may have been the most disappointing of my 2018-pitchers-to-own class. My long memory with regard to promising upside again came back to haunt me. Giolito didn't look much like the promising prospect that made him the fantasy buzz boy a few years ago. They have reinvented his delivery to try to protect his fragile right arm, but it has cost him a ton of the great stuff that once looked so good. He may yet live up to expectations, but there's a long road to get there.

Tyler Chatwood (Cubs) – This looked like an easy one. Get out of Colorado. Move to a very competitive Cubs squad. Good season assured. Wrong. Chatwood hasn't just been bad, he's been horrible. A 1.80 WHIP only partially tells the story. Failure to hit your spots consistently is always going to be problematic, but failing to keep any of your pitches between the batter's boxes takes wild to a whole new level.

Jon Gray (Rockies) – I picked the wrong Rockies' pitcher. I still like Gray's stuff, but he really unraveled as the season progressed, eventually earning him a ticket to Triple-A Albuquerque in late June. He came back better, but pitching in Colorado is like being a closer in high-pressure situations six or seven innings at a time. Some pitchers can deal with that, but others struggle to cope. The jury is still out on Gray.

Brandon Finnegan (Reds) – When you commit to selecting a pitcher to own on each MLB roster, and no one on the staff excites you, it turns into throwing darts. I threw one at Finnegan and missed. Hell, I not only missed the target, I missed the wall, and so did he. Inability to throw strikes resulted in a trip to Louisville where he was eventually moved to the bullpen. He might find success there, but he will still need to throw strikes, and I don't see a spike in fantasy value any time in the foreseeable future.

There you have it – a few arms that paid the bills, and a few that didn't quite make us giddy. We'll do it all again next spring!

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The White Sox youth movement took a big hit earlier this week. Michael Kopech has a torn UCL, which will likely result in Tommy John surgery and cost him all of next year. He and Carlos Rodon will eventually anchor their rotation, but if he goes under the knife, that would be delayed until the 2020 season.

• Dereck Rodriguez continues to pile up quality innings for the Giants. I'll admit to being somewhat surprised by his level of success. He's compiled a 1.06 WHIP with an impressive 2.35 ERA in just over 103 MLB innings. He has good stuff, but it's not overwhelming. I'm still a bit unsure if he can keep up this pace.

• I'm looking forward to Trevor Bauer returning to Cleveland's rotation later this month. I have walked the fence on him since he turned pro, but he's just about convinced me his days of wild swings in consistency are coming to the end. He's always had the skill set and now he's settling in as a professional pitcher.

• Another somewhat surprising success story this year has been Trevor Williams. Particularly in the second half, the Pittsburgh righty has put together seven quality starts over his last 10 outings. He doesn't miss enough bats to be a top-tier starter, but he has shown the ability to hold his own in deeper leagues.

• Oakland southpaw Sean Manaea will reportedly undergo surgery on his ailing left shoulder next week and he could miss the entire 2019 season. He put together a strong year despite being bothered by the balky shoulder, and if he misses a full year, it would take an advancing pitcher off the table next spring.

• There are so many things to like about Miami's Jose Urena, but consistency isn't one of those things. His league average peripherals are mostly made up of great starts and poor starts, but when he's on, he's a good one. I'd like to see him pitching for a better team, but I'll likely try to roster him next season.
  

The Cardinals appear to have settled on Carlos Martinez as their closer of the moment. His future is in the rotation, but for now, with Bud Norris scuffling and Jordan Hicks not ready, it makes perfect sense. September isn't an ideal time for a bad stretch, but that's what has occurred with Arizona's Brad Boxberger. Look for a committee approach, maybe with Yoshihisa Hirano leading the way, for the immediate future. In Milwaukee, Jeremy Jeffress is still the most likely reliever to get the ninth inning but if he stumbles at all, Corey Knebel is quickly pushing his way back into the picture. I'm going to mention him again. The Rangers' Jose Leclerc looks better each time I see him. He's thriving in the closer's role and as long as he throws strikes, he should be successful. The white Sox activated Nate Jones from the disabled list earlier this week. It would be pure speculation to guess how long he can stay healthy, but with only a couple weeks remaining in the regular season, the closer-less Sox could give a save chance or two. The Nationals (and his fantasy owners) welcomed back Sean Doolittle who had missed a couple months with a stress reaction in his foot. He has reclaimed his closer's job.