This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Single Game Bets Today:
Pirates vs. Marlins, June 22
Pittsburgh Pirates 
vs. Miami Marlins 
The Pittsburgh Pirates are stuck in a nine-game losing streak. If any individual is to pull the Buccos out of this nosedive, it's starting pitcher Mitch Keller.
Keller has transformed into the ace of this Pirates pitching staff, currently sporting a record of 8-3 and a 3.62 ERA. Although his ERA isn't generating any Cy Young conversations at this point, Keller holds an impressive .227 opponents' batting average and a solid 1.14 WHIP. Keller's FIP of 3.39 also suggests he's been slightly unlucky when it comes to his results.
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Compared to previous years, Keller has done a great job of cutting down free passes in 2023, much of the credit to the placement of his fastball. His four-seam fastball velocity is up to a career-high 95.7 miles per hour and has produced an opponent batting average of .178, according to Baseball Savant.
Limiting hard contact has been a key to Keller's success in 2023. Keller's hard-hit percentage is just 33.1 percent, the exact same hard-hit percentage as Shohei Ohtani. Today, the Pirates will send their ace to the mound to face a Marlins squad that is 25th in the MLB in hard-hit percentage.
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The Marlins have not been a high-scoring offense. Miami is averaging just 4.05 runs per game this season, ranked 26th in the MLB. The big bat for the Fish has been Luis Arraez, who's still flirting with a .400 batting average, but they need more from this lineup to score.
Arraez can get on, but who will drive him in? Jorge Soler has been the power bat, hitting 21 home runs, but has struggled against same-sided pitchers. Soler is batting just .231 with an OPS of .787 against righties, compared to a .322 average and a ridiculous 1.260 OPS vs. lefties. Fellow middle-of-the-order hitters Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez have been struggling of late. In each of their last 15 games, De La Cruz is hitting .194 with a .562 OPS, while Sanchez is batting .200 with a .653 OPS. With guys like the light-hitting Jon Berti, Joey Wendle, and aging Yuli Gurriel, I like Pittsburgh's chances to keep runs off the board on Thursday.
Braxton Garrett will kick the rubber for the Marlins, and for some reason, the left-hander has been roughed up at loanDepot Park. Garrett has posted an ERA of 6.35 at his home park, compared to 2.18 on the road, and has allowed a .299 opponent average at home as well. Although the sample isn't large, Garrett has struggled in night games, too, producing a wildly high 9.00 ERA in 20 innings across four starts.
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In all fairness, the Pirates' lineup isn't the most imposing either, but they have found quiet success against southpaws. Pittsburgh is currently eighth in MLB in batting average against lefties (.264), and 10th in OPS (.757). One man who has been sneaky good against lefties is switch-hitting shortstop Rodolfo Castro. Castro's splits are pretty wide, hitting just .178 with a .475 OPS vs. righties, but a very effective .342 average and a 1.065 OPS vs. lefties. Also, Henry Davis, the Pirates' recent call-up and former No. 1 overall draft pick, recorded on OPS over 1.000 against lefties at Double-A Altoona.
Arguably, the most notable swingers in this Bucs lineup, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds, have both been hobbled by injuries. After missing the past two contests, they should both suit up in this one, but keep a close eye on the lineups prior to game time.
Pittsburgh lost seven straight games from April 30 to May 7, and Keller picked up the win the next day. The Pirates then lost the next four games between May 9-13, with Keller nabbing the win the next day. If history repeats, Keller will keep this streak from hitting double digits.
MLB Best Bets for Pirates at Marlins
- Pirates ML (+108 FanDuel)
- Pirates Total Runs OVER 3.5 (-111 FanDuel)
- Henry Davis OVER 0.5 RBI (+200 FanDuel)
