This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks and Props for
Tuesday, July 23
YTD 117-113-1
Prior article 3-2 ( +1.28 units)
MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road and vs. RHP/LHP to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Los Angeles Angels 
at Seattle Mariners 
This one is all about the trends in Seattle with their pitching and weak hitting. The Mariners are 20-10 to the UNDER in their last 30 and 5 out of their last 6 games. The UNDER is 10-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 11 home starts. Gilbert pitched 7 scoreless innings against the Angels on July 14th and Jose Soriano allowed just 1 run in 6 innings against the Mariners on July 13th. So we have some recent strong history with both pitchers.
Everything lines up for a low-scoring game between Gilbert, Jose Soriano, and the weak offenses on both sides, plus we get a great pitcher's park.
MLB Picks for Angels at Mariners
- Angels/Mariners UNDER 7.0 runs for 1.5 unit (BetRivers -103)
Boston Red Sox 
at Colorado Rockies 
The Red Sox bullpen is in shambles and depleted with no Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Justin Slaten. Boston's bullpen ranks dead last in FIP and xFIP over the last 7 days. Both teams also went to extra innings last night in a 9-8 12 inning game and Boston has gone OVER in 3 straight.
This is also a matchup of two of the worst pitchers in both rotations with Cooper Criswell against Ty Blach. Both pitchers won't be long in this game and it will end up in the bullpens again.
The total has gone OVER in 6 out of the last 7 games in Coors for the series and the OVER has hit on 10 out of 13 overall between both teams.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Dodgers
- Red Sox/Rockies OVER 11.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
Chicago White Sox 
at Texas Rangers 
This looks to be the theme of the day with strong pitching matchups. Garrett Crochet has been one of the best F5 pitchers because the White Sox bullpen is so bad. Jon Gray has been terrible in his last six starts with a 8.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
The F5 total of three runs was just too low for me to consider even though there are some heavy trends leaning towards a very low-scoring game. The White Sox have gone UNDER in 8 out of their last 9.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Rangers
- White Sox F5 ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Anytime Paul Skenes is on the mound, you have to find a way to make money. The Pirates are -180 favorites which takes that out of play and I can not lay -1.5 runs when 5 out of his last 6 starts have gone under. The Pirates offense is not very good and Skenes should be able to rack up at least 8 strikeouts keep runs at a premium. The total runs in his last 6 starts have been 1, 16, 3, 4, 5,and 3 with 7.5 totals.
MLB Picks for Cardinals at Pirates
- Cardinals/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Angels/Mariners UNDER 7.0 runs for 1.5 unit (BetRivers -103)
- Red Sox/Rockies OVER 11.0 runs for 1.5 unit (BetMGM -105)
- White Sox F5 ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Cardinals/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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