MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 9)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Especially this early in the season with player evaluations up in the air, some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Batters

Joey Bart (87 NFBC drops, -5% at CBS)

Bart was once considered to be a top-50 prospect, but his stock has taken a nose dive. In 225 MLB plate appearances, he has a .605 OPS. All of his struggles originate from not making contact (45% K%). He's struggled with all pitch types, not just one. Fastballs against him are generating a 13% SwStr% and non-fastballs are at a 20% SwStr% or higher. And there are no signs of improvement, with his monthly strikeout rate going from 46% to 44% to 50%. Now that he's in the minors, the number of drops will increase exponentially.

The rest of his profile is average-to-above-average for a catcher. He's hit four homers in 108 plate appearances, putting him on pace for 18 long balls in 450 PA. His 14% walk rate is great. His .270 BABIP is acceptable. All the power metrics stand out (.144 ISO, 111 maxEV, 46% Statcast HardHit%). Everything is all hunky-dory, except for the strikeout rate.

I might regain interest if he comes back and can strike out under 40% of the time. Otherwise, he needs to remain on the waiver wire.

Yadiel Hernandez (86 NFBC drops, -5% at CBS)

I'm a little surprised to see so many Hernandez drops. While he's struggled so far in June, it's only been six games. His .784 OPS in May was higher than his mark in April (.776). The 34-year-old was supposed to be a backup this season, but he hit enough to force himself into the lineup (.275/.323/.416, 4 HR, 2 SB). While the stats aren't game-changing, they are fine in deeper leagues. A bad week isn't a reason to drop him.

The main cause of the drops may be his lack of playing time against lefties. On May 13, he started sitting against lefties. I'm not sure why since he has a .765 OPS against lefties this year and a .734 OPS versus righties. In mid-May, he was in a platoon with Lane Thomas, but Thomas has caught fire. Now Hernandez is splitting time with Victor Robles.

I can see why the Nats want to see how the younger players perform, but Hernandez deserves to be getting major-league at-bats. Maybe he'll be traded to a team that needs some outfield help.

Ha-Seong Kim (80 NFBC drops, -5% at CBS)

Kim was another player I was surprised to see on the drop list since I was looking to roster him in some leagues this past weekend. While his .207 average is disappointing, he has four homers and three stolen bases on the season. Also, he qualifies at three positions.  

That being said, there has been a steady decline in production. His monthly OPS has dropped from .926 to .560 to .305. He's getting hit with the combination of more strikeouts and a lower BABIP.

I dug into his profile for a cause for the decline, like a known injury or if pitchers changed their approach against him. I got nothing. Possibly he's still feeling the effects of this May 11th hit-by-pitch on his wrist. Before getting plunked, he had a .714 OPS (.188 ISO).

The struggles have not cost him at-bats so far. While Kim has moved down the order, he's still batting sixth.

Maybe I'd roster him only as a bench bat until he gets out of this funk.

Yadier Molina (57 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

While Molina's power and stolen bases have been gone for a few years now, he's provided a decent batting average for the catcher position. Not this year. His .226 average is his worst since 2006.

The reason for the decline seems to be a flyball approach. He doesn't have the power at this stage of his career to turn those flyballs into home runs, so they are automatic outs. He has a .294 career BABIP, but it's down to .252 this season.

The Cardinals are taking notice and sitting Molina more frequently.

In 15-team, two-catcher leagues, Molina might have to be rostered, but it's probably time to move past him in any shallower league.

Starters

Dylan Bundy (119 NFBC drops, -15% at CBS)

Bundy's 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP have him headed to the wire where he belongs. While his results were decent in April (2.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), it's been all downhill since then.

All of his struggles originate from giving up too many home runs. His 1.96 HR/9 this season is even higher than his 1.64 HR/9 career mark. Additionally, he's getting hit around as seen by his career-high .318 BABIP.

The likely cause for the hard-hit balls is a career-low, sub-90 mph average fastball. And for some unknown reason, he's deciding to throw it a four-year high clip. I'm not sure why he's not throwing his slider more.

His 4.25 xFIP should point to someone who is a streaming option. Additionally, his 14.4 K-BB% is comparable to Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson, Josiah Gra and Tyler Mahle. Not great options, but they are still streamable.

I say Bundy should stay unrostered until his fastball percentage drops to about 40% (2020 level with a .329 ERA)

Bruce Zimmermann (103 NFBC drops, -7% at CBS)

After a great April (19% K-BB%, 3.01 xFIP, 2.33 ERA), Zimmermann has fallen apart (10% K%-BB%, 4.77 xFIP, 6.16 ERA). A drop in his strikeout rate (9.8 K/9 to 5.0 K/9) is the main reason for the decline.

None of the obvious reasons for a pitcher's decline are there. His velocity has been fine. The pitch mix stayed the same. He's been attacking the strike zone the same. Maybe he was just throwing over his head early on and he's just a 5.00 ERA pitcher as seen by his career stats. It's possible teams are just not batting lefties bat against him since he has insane career splits (2.34 xFIP vs LHH, 4.81 xFIP vs RHH).

Besides the strikeout decline, the soft-tossing lefty's home-run rate has jumped from 0.5 HR/9 to 2.8 HR/9. His season rate (2.0 HR/9) is exactly the same as his career mark. 

The lack of strikeouts and too many home runs allowed make him unrosterable.

James Kaprielian (84 NFBC drops, -6% at CBS)

Kaprielian performs well enough to suck us into believing there is a breakout coming, and then he blows up, giving back all the goodness and then some. In a three-game stretch in early May, he posted a 2.81 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 1.00 WHIP. In the four starts since then: 6.86 ERA, 4.1 K/9 and 1.32 WHIP.

Realistically, this drop is about a week too late. I am sure he was initially rostered for his two-step against Seattle and Texas in which he allowed nine runs in just as many innings. Why was he kept around for a single start against Boston? This is just 84 fantasy managers cleaning up their rosters a week late and nothing more.

Reliever

Brooks Raley (77 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

Raley hasn't recorded a win or a save since May 11th and has an 8.31 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 2.08 WHIP during that time frame. With Tampa's bullpen, a fantasy manager needs to follow the usage patterns and it seemed like Raley was already losing some of the high-leverage opportunities, especially with Colin Poche being lights out.

Even with the apparent move down the pecking order, I still expect Raley to find his way into more wins and saves. The problem is just guessing when his chance will come.