MLB: One Man's Trash Is Another Man's Treasure (Preseason Edition)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Especially this early in the season with player evaluations up in the air, some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks. 

Request: This is my first stab, so I will take any suggestions on how to provide the information in a clear and helpful manner. 

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play. 

Hitters

Alec Bohm (62 NFBC drops, -9% at CBS)

Bohm continues to struggle at the plate (.670 OPS in spring training) and on the field while his replacement, Bryson Stott, is on fire (1.261 OPS). With Stott is now playing some third base, the assumption is that Stott will win the third base job over Bohm.

The deal is that the Phillies want Bohm to succeed, so he could start the season in the majors. Additionally, Stott is just starting to learn third base. It now sounds like both could make the roster.

I could be wrong and Stott is the Phillies' third baseman for the next decade. It's tough to make a call either way right now.

Abraham Toro (42 NFBC drops, -2% at CBS)

The thought was that once the Mariners added Eugenio Suarez, Toro would not have an everyday roster spot. Toro has been splitting time between second base (with Adam Frazier) and third base. It's tough to figure out exactly what is going on. 

Toro and Frazier have historically struggled against left-handed pitching while Suarez has struggled against righties, so maybe a platoon materializes. What I do know for now is that Toro's power and speed profile to go along with being qualified at two positions (2B and 3B) can't be ignored. Most likely one of the trio will struggle and the other two will assume full-time roles. Watch the lineups this weekend for any hints of future roles. 

Sam Hilliard (35 NFBC drops), Connor Joe (33 NFBC drops), Garrett Hampson (30 NFBC drops, -2% at CBS)

I completely understand the frustration with trying to figure out the Rockies' outfield. I had one of those Hilliard drops. The Rockies have never given any of these three a full-time role except in a few instances when the team was beset by injuries. The addition of Randal Grichuk has removed an outfield spot for the three to cycle in and out of. It's impossible to project playing time.

In most of these unclear instances, there is a hope that one player emerges to become a regular, but the Rockies seem to never settle on a single player. They start and bench players with little rhyme or reason. It seems like the decisions are based on space noise. Or where Bud Black's dog pooped on the lawn that day.

If there is one spot to speculate on here, I'd go with Hilliard. I think his defense is the best of the three and he is also the best hitter. But common sense doesn't apply to this situation, so he'll end up with 200 PA for the season. 

Gio Urshela (28 NFBC drops, -7% at CBS)

As a manager who had to deal with replacing Evan Longoria in two leagues, there are few if any third basemen on the wire. It's straight up barren. I expect these drops to get quickly picked up as other managers look for bench replacements.

I know Urshela is not the most talented player with a Steamer600 of 18 homers, two steals and a .260 batting average. It's not great, but he's a warm body to have on a bench to fill in for injuries or if someone has a short week. Additionally, he's also qualified at shortstop to help fill in a middle infield spot.

Besides not being the most talented player, he runs the risk of losing playing time to light-hitting Luis Arraez. While a fine bench replacement, just check in every week to verify if he's still regularly playing.

Starters

Roansy Contreras (48 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

A few of those NFBC drops are mine. I love the potential Conteras has as a starter after profiling him at FanGraphs in the offseason.

While it may seem like the Pirates are manipulating his service time, Conteras only threw a total of 60 innings last year. It's tough to know when he'll get promoted, but if there are any rumors of a promotion, immediately roster him. 

Chris Paddack (45 NFBC drops, -6% at CBS)

Several down arrows are pushing owners away from Paddack. The addition of Sean Manaea and the resurgence of MacKenzie Gore mean his rotation spot is not set. Also, Paddack got off to a slow start to spring training because of an elbow issue that may be leading to a velocity drop (94.9 mph in 2021, 93.1 mph on 3/31/2022). On the bright side, he does have six strikeouts to one walk in five spring training innings.

I've thought that Paddack had some upside if he threw his fastball fewer times (60% usage) and his change (16 SwStr%) and curve (11 SwStr%) more. I know there are a ton of shiny new toys and Paddack's luster has worn off, but he should be universally rostered to see how the next couple of weeks unfold for him. 

Andrew Heaney (34 NFBC drops, -21% at CBS)

I don't understand this drop at all. Heaney is in the rotation. While he's had homer issues in the past, the hope was for the Dodgers to fix him. That fix had to be the thought process going into rostering him. 

While Heaney's spring training results have been beyond poor (16.88 ERA, 2.44 WHIP), the numbers that matter to me (6:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP) are fine. 

It's tough to get a piece of the loaded Dodgers team and Heaney's got a rotation spot. Some fantasy team should be taking a chance on him, so I expect him to be added once the season starts. 

Rich Hill (31 NFBC drops, -3% at CBS)

The news is not good for Hill. While he is in the Red Sox's rotation, he's going to be the first pitcher in a tandem start with Garrett Whitlock. 

Hill has never gone deep into games and there was no reason to think that would change, especially with the short ramp-up. Still, the tandem starters aren't going to last forever and Hill will be worth rostering in deep leagues at least for the wins. 

Relievers

Ian Kennedy (74 NFBC drops, -7% at CBS)

I'd not be surprised to see Kennedy on the most added list in a week or two. I don't see a Kennedy breakout but more of a Mark Melancon implosion.

Melancon has been… garbage in spring training. While I don't care at all about a pitcher's spring training ERA, I do care if they are throwing strikes. In 3.1 innings, Melancon has four walks and a hit-by-pitch to go with just two strikeouts. 

Additionally, here are his recent average fastball readings:

Time Frame: Avg FBv (mph)

• 2021: 92.0
• 3/21/22: 89.0
• 3/27/22: 88.6
• 3/30/22: 88.2
• 4/2/22: 89.0

At least the downward trend was halted in the last appearance, but a three-mph drop is not ideal. 

Kyle Finnegan (25 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

Finnegan could easily be the Nationals' closer. After the trade deadline, he was the closer after accumulating 11 saves with a 9.3 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 (not ideal). 

I feel it's worth holding on to him until at least this weekend. If he comes out and gets the first save, he'll cost at least 10% of a team's FAAB to roster him and possibly 2-3 times that amount. Teams need to show a little patience.