This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Awards Market Update: AL & NL Rookie of the Year Check-In for May
Hard to believe it, but we have a month of major league baseball under our belts. We have not seen enormous movement in team futures markets just yet as most of the expected good teams have delivered so far. Yes Astros, we see you floundering over there.
Individual awards markets on the other hand have seen some big moves thanks to plenty of injuries and early over and underperformance. I am going to take a peek at DraftKings' current Rookie of the Year markets compared to Opening Day consensus prices through our MLB odds movement tracker and try to find players to "invest" in. My goal is to ultimately find a few plays in each award category so I will revisit these down the road.
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AL Rookie of the Year
Then….
And now…
The big Mooooo-ver here will shock no one who plays Fantasy baseball. Yes, Colton Cowser has become pretty much an every day player in a loaded Orioles lineup and has truly delivered the milk (apologies). He leads all AL rookies in homers (6), RBI's (18), AVG. (.310) and SLG (.662). Cowser maybe got lost a little in the Orioles endless galaxy of top prospects not to mention a weak showing after his callup last season. Cowser did make the Orioles opening day roster and had the 8th shortest preseason AL Rookie of the Year odds.
Still, +140 already? I look at this like I look at my Fantasy teams. I would rather get off to a great start than a lousy one of course, but I have not mentally booked my winners in the slightest….or given up on my bad teams for that matter. Cowser deserves his spot at the top, but it makes it tough to wager on him now at cost.
I do not love rookie projections on an individual player basis as the systems (rightly) regress everyone towards the reality that most prospects struggle out of the gate. Thus by design, they miss the breakouts. But for what it is worth, ATC has Cowser projected for a .233 average with just 10 more homers and 43 additional RBI.
On the board up above, Evan Carter has gotten off to a decent start with 5 homers and a .335 wOBA. Congrats; you have the best grades in this years' top-rated prospect pledge class.
Wyatt Langford, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows and Jackson Holliday have looked varying degrees of lost out there so far. They have combined for 3 homers total, two by Meadows who carries a .079 Avg and .193 wOBA. Junior Caminero has yet to debut this season while Heston Kjerstad just got called up into the incredibly crowded Orioles lineup. As Cowser shows, if Kjerstad gets hot, he will play.
The two guys I have interest in buying here are both Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Rafaela flailed mightily at the plate until a monster 7 RBI game on Saturday, but still has just a .191/.225/..351 triple slash line. He plays premium defense in both center and middle infield. The Sox signed Rafaela long term already and for now have committed to him at shortstop, which opens up a corner OF spot for Abreu as at least a strong side platoon. Abreu has run with the job early on with a .388 wOBA, 2 homers in 78 PA and 4 steals. Abreu does have a lot of swing and miss in his game with a 14.0% SwStr% that suggests his 24% K% may go higher. He does take his walks with a 11.5% BB%. His minor league numbers suggest these traits will persist. Abreu does not have nearly the pedigree of most of the favorites, but has perhaps the longest leash right here right now.
AL Rookie Of The Year Best Bet
Wilyer Abreu +1000
Keeping an Eye On
I will look for a dip in the Cowser price as well as signs of progress from Rafaela and Kjerstad. I am not averse to paying shorter odds on either one if we do see something promising. Hopefully Saturday was not a one-off for Rafaela. Orelvis Martinez has torn up the minors and sits at +7000, but there is no indication the Blue Jays plan to call him up soon.
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NL Rookie of the Year
Then….
And now…..
Michael Busch recently homered in 5 straight games and like Cowser, parlayed a super hot week into front-runner status in the NL Rookie of the Year odds. Unlike Cowser, his +450 price tag still makes him a potential buy. He sits at 6 homers total, .287/.343/.540 with a .379 wOBA fully supported by a.392 xwOBA. He has consistently mashed in the minors, but a poor glove and a loaded Dodgers roster afforded him scant opportunities in LA. Thanks to an offseason trade to the Cubs and shift to 1st base, he has been "freed" to rake, although he may continue to sit against some lefties.
As to the other favorites, both Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of course are eligible to win the award after highly successful careers in the NPB in Japan. I would guess they have a higher bar to win, by which I mean a tie would go to a player who came from the minors or a lower-level international league. I am not investing in either one, though Imanaga (4-0, 0.98 ERA, 0.795 WHIP, 28 K's) has pitched better than Yamamoto (2-1, 3.54 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 37 K's) to date.
Jared Jones has jumped from +2025 pre-season to +500 now, as his arm looks electric with 42 K's and just 5 walks in 34 innings, to go with a 3.18 ERA and .91 WHIP. He would likely carry the shortest odds of the three pitchers and likely the whole board were it not for the inevitable slowdown or shutdown that is coming down the pike as the Pirates will look to control his innings. Hey, at least he will get his innings on a major league mound, unlike say, Max Meyer.
But still,12 years after the Nationals famously shut down Steven Strasburg teams have still not figured out the best way to handle promising young pitchers. I would guess whatever future arm troubles unfortunately await the hard-throwing righty, cutting a few innings now will barely help. But I digress as we are talking about ROY odds here and it will be tough (but not impossible) for Jones to win it if he gets shut down in mid-August.
My two favorites here are two of the next hitters on the board, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio. Merrill's odds have gotten shorter, from +950 preseason (though he had played 2 games by that point) to +500 now, but he has oddly gotten little buzz despite a fast start that has only lacked in the big counting stats. The highly touted prospect emerged as the Padres starting center fielder despite graduating high school just three years ago and playing SS in his relatively brief minor league career that only peaked with a partial season in AA. He has slumped a bit lately, but still has hit .295/.352/.379 with a homer and 4 steals and played plus defense in a new, premium position.
The 20-year-old Chourio is a year younger than Merrill but looked a little more ready to deliver right away in MLB. He shows flashes of future stardom, but so far has produced just a .276 wOBA which is actually better than his .245 xwOBA. He does have four homers and four steals but a worrisome 34.7% K% and 15.2% SwStr%. Chourio played mostly AA ball last season and only had an 18.4% K% in 559 PA's, so he will likely improve upon this as he acclimates to MLB pitching. And again, Chourio is 20 years old. The future remains limitless. Will he figure it out in time to win the NL ROY? His odds have dropped from +570 preseason to +1500. I am tempted to jump in now as a pure spec play..
The Pick
Merrill +500. ½ unit of Chourio +1500
Keeping an Eye On
A couple of guys outside the top 10 have shown fits of promise. Masyn Winn +3500 (.311 Avg, 4 steals) and Joey Ortiz +5000 (.349 wOBA). Both play excellent defense that should keep them playing, but they have 1 homer and 15 RBI's combined. I will wait and likely buy shorter odds if ever so inclined
