This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An 11-game main slate awaits Friday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Of the 22 arms available, only one is priced in the five figures with seven more coming in at $9,000 or greater. We've got the Rockies at home, facing the Cubs, giving us our high 11.0 run total. Three games sit with a low of 7.5 runs or fewer, with Giants-Padres sitting at a ridiculously low 6.5, That leaves seven games sitting at 8.0 runs or greater, so it's not expected to be an overwhelmingly low-scoring day. Even that low point seems curious with Dylan Cease laboring of late, and the Padres hitting Logan Webb reasonably in his last start.
Weather information is curiously down as I write this, so check on it before building your rosters. I know the remnants of a hurricane could impact things in Atlanta, both wind and rain, so tread lightly there.
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. CIN ($9,800): I have some interest in Yusei Kikuchi at the top of this slate, but the Angels aren't pushovers statistically against lefties. While it's a minimal sample (17 at-bats), Anaheim has hit him decently. It's enough on a slate where paying up isn't required for me to fade. As such, Ober is the pivot. When he's on, he's really on, earning an obscene 13 quality starts in his last 14 outings, scoring 45+ FanDuel points nine times in that span, including a couple of 60+ performances. Cincinnati is usually targetable, striking out at a 25.1 percent mark against righties while posting just a 90 wRC+.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. TB ($8,500): Bibee has been inconsistent and statistically worse at home, so this is a GPP-only option. But he hasn't gone fewer than five innings since July 5 (4.2 innings), so there's some potential. And the matchup elevates that, with Tampa striking out 24.5 percent of the time against righties while posting a .291 wOBA and 92 wRC+. That's a nearly identical profile to what we're targeting above with Obe. It's simply up to Bibee to perform and match the potential.
Brady Basso, OAK at CWS ($6,000): This is seemingly too obvious, which scares me, but when do we get the slate's lowest-priced arm in a favorable matchup, coming off an impressive outing? Brasso fanned six in six shutout innings against Detroit in his first start. Now he gets the White Sox, who we almost always can target and/or fall back on when in search of an arm. Chicago has a 69 wRC+, .264 wOBA and 24.9 percent strikeout rate off lefties. When it's this clear, it usually blows up in our faces, but that's borderline acceptable at the bottom-tier price.
Top Targets
Garrett Crochet isn't going to throw many innings, so we can't go all in on Brent Rooker's ($3,800) left-handed splits, which are great (.401 wOBA, 169 wRC+, .324 ISO), but he's hitting .383 with a 1.017 OPS across 50 September plate appearances.
Rafael Devers ($3,700) hasn't homered since August 25 and has only one RBI since then, so it's strictly a BvP/trends play, but he's 6-for-12 with two homers off Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt. He historically performs well at Yankee Stadium, going 5-for-14 with three homers there this year.
Logan Webb has allowed 13 runs and 22 hits across his last 17 innings. Manny Machado ($3,500) is 10-for-30 off of him with a homer. Fernando Tatis ($3,600) hasn't had as much success (4-for-20), he's homered in consecutive games.
Bargain Bats
Certainly not top targets, and while not priced as bargains either, they arguably are for the ballpark price up, and we know we want shares of the Cubs lineup. Dansby Swanson ($3,400) is their best option off lefties to date, with a .379 wOBA and 147 wRC+. Isaac Paredes ($3,500) has been great since joining the team in this spot, while also having six hits, five RBI and three runs in his last four.
Finding value bats today is a struggle. Zach Neto ($3,300) is in a great spot with a .464 wOBA, 206 wRC+ and .237 ISO, and surely will be lightly rostered against the slate's top pitcher. But the price isn't ideal.
The Twins have the slate's second-highest implied run total, yet don't have a bat priced above $3,300, so it's a great spot to target and/or potentially stack. I'm disappointed by the price tag on Byron Buxton ($3,100) in his return from the injured list (IL), but he's got a .271 ISO off righties, while Reds starter Julian Aguiar is allowing 2.1 HR/9. Jose Miranda ($2,600) has hit clean-up a lot lately with minimal to show for it but has an attractive .380 wOBA and 151 wRC+ off righties.
Gleyber Torres ($2,900) is hitting .348 with an okay .872 OPS in September, giving a cheap leadoff hitter in from of the Yankees' bombers.
Stack to Consider
Brewers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks): William Contreras ($3,400), Jackson Chourio ($3,300), Gary Sanchez ($2,600)
Rodriguez has allowed 12 runs and 19 hits in his last 13.1 innings and has a 6.91 ERA (4.48 xFIP) at home, where he's been more vulnerable to righties, allowing a .378 wOBA. I'm certainly not fading Willy Adames ($3,900) here, he just doesn't have elite enough splits off southpaws to pay up for. As such, we'll take pieces around him. Contreras is the anchor, with a team-best .376 wOBA and 143 wRC+ off lefties. The other two pieces don't have great splits, but Chourio will hit first or second, and Sanchez has a reasonable 105 wRC+ and .221 ISO, giving us a cheap power source. Joey Ortiz ($2,700) has positive splits here and is in play as another bargain option, depending on where he slots in the batting order.
