MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This time last week, teams had played anywhere between 5 and 17 percent of their schedule. One week later, that number is anywhere between 8 and 28 percent, as the Cardinals remain shut down while their coronavirus outbreak continues to spread. There appears to be a good chance the Cardinals won't take the field until Thursday, at which point they will have played 15 fewer games than some teams. What a world.

The unpredictability that comes from not knowing when your players' teams will be shut down for a series or more, combined with the high number of injuries to players who were unable to follow their typical preseason routines has led to a frustrating level of variance this season. As the commissioner of my home league, I'm glad I elected to add a couple extra injured list spots, but I'm already regretting not doing more to account for this strange season. Specifically, switching from weekly to daily lineup changes sure feels like it would have been a good idea any time one of my players sees his entire series wiped out shortly after lineups lock. I'd be curious to hear what other innovations people instituted (or are wishing they'd instituted) for this season, though I sure hope we'll never have the opportunity to put the lessons we're learning this year into practice.

Occasional frustrations aside, it's still been a blessing to have so many MLB games to watch all day every day, and the fantasy season is still on the whole largely normal. That means that we should still mostly be hesitant to dramatically change our assessments of players' talent levels based on statistical performance alone, even with just six weeks left in the season. The most dramatic statistical outliers are still worth noting, however, so this week's column contains a handful of those alongside some players whose roles have already changed.

RISERS

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres: Tatis is the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment, leading the league with a 232 wRC+, the product of a .333/.417/.810 slash line. He's also tied with Aaron Judge atop the leaderboard with eight homers and tied for second in the league with four steals. It was obvious before the season that the 21-year-old was a phenomenal talent, but just what kind of numbers he'd manage this year wasn't entirely clear. His .317/.379/.590 slash line, 22 homers and 16 steals from his 84-game debut last season were all remarkable numbers, though they came with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate and a .410 BABIP. Those numbers look very similar this season, as he owns a 31.9 percent strikeout rate and a .406 BABIP. While it's hard to believe he can sustain a BABIP anything close to that long-term, he does have plenty of speed, so it's not hard to envision him running a well above-average mark in that category.

Trevor Bauer, SP, Reds: Bauer is a notoriously hard worker, famous for continually tweaking his arsenal and embracing all the tools available to him to refine his pitches, so it should hardly be surprising that he didn't let the shutdown go to waste. Through three starts, he leads the league with a 0.93 ERA, and his 1.78 FIP and 1.85 xFIP back up his dominance. His 46.4 percent strikeout rate also leads all qualified starters, while he's walked just 5.8 percent of  batters. Granted, we're still early enough in the season that the fact that two of his three starts have come against the Tigers certainly accounts for some portion of his incredible start, but that level of performance against any big-league team is still quite remarkable. It's quite an encouraging start for those who had faith in him despite seeing his ERA jump from 2.21 in 2018 to 4.48 last year.

Alex Verdugo, OF, Red Sox: Three home runs in a two-game stretch saw Verdugo move up to the leadoff role Saturday. While he went just 1-for-8 in his two games in that spot, it would be a surprise to see him relinquish the role any time soon. Consider the other players Boston has used atop their lineup: Andrew Benintendi is coming off his career-worst season and is hitting .056/.261/.083, while Jose Peraza owns a career .312 on-base percentage and owns a .296 mark in that category. Verdugo has started the season with a solid 122 wRC+ through 46 plate appearances, and there's potential for more if his 23.9 percent strikeout rate falls toward his career 14.3 percent. While Boston's offense hasn't clicked yet this season, hitting in front of Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts should certainly be a boost to his value eventually.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds: Castellanos earned some hype this offseason upon signing with the Reds, as a move to a hitter-friendly park and a team with a revamped lineup was thought to be a boost to his value given that he'd spent the majority of his career stuck on a struggling Tigers team. It's, of course, still very early, but the initial results could hardly have gone better for those who bought into the hype, as Castellanos owns a .293/.379/.724 batting line and sits just one back of the league lead with seven homers. He'd always had respectable or better pop, though it was mostly of the doubles variety, as he led the league in that category with 58 last season but has never managed more than 27 homers. It's certainly possible his homers start turning back into doubles, but it's hard to complain about his start thus far.

Dylan Bundy, SP, Angels: Bundy generated some sleeper buzz over the offseason on the theory that getting out of Baltimore could finally allow the 2011 fourth-overall pick to break out. Through three starts, the results could hardly be more compelling, as he's struck out 31.3 percent of  batters while walking just 2.5 percent, leading to a 2.08 ERA. He went the distance in his most recent start, holding the Mariners to just a single run on four hits while striking out 10 and walking none. A dramatic drop in fastball usage appears to be spurring the change, as he's thrown the pitch just 39.4 percent of the time after throwing it 50.0 percent of the time last season, with his slider, curveball and changeup seeing increased use as a result.

Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals: If and when the Cardinals eventually resume playing, the path would seem to be clear for Gallegos to close. The team hasn't announced as much, with manager Mike Shildt instead listing a large number of relievers who could pitch in the ninth inning, but process of elimination sure seems to point to Gallegos. Jordan Hicks opted out of the season. Kwang-Hyun Kim is moving back to the rotation. Ryan Helsley is sidelined after a positive COVID-19 test, while Carlos Martinez is on the injured list for undisclosed reasons. Lefties Andrew Miller and Tyler Webb were managed by Shildt as options, but Gallegos seems like the clear choice when righties are scheduled to bat in the ninth inning. While he saved just a single game last season, his 2.31 ERA was backed by a 33.3 percent strikeout rate and a 5.7 percent walk rate, numbers which certainly look like closer material.

FALLERS

Josh James, SP, Astros: The Astros are without Justin Verlander (elbow), Jose Urquidy (undisclosed) and Austin Pruitt (elbow), yet James is not in the team's rotation. He entered the season with plenty of hype given his presumed role and his 37.6 percent strikeout rate last season in a year spent almost entirely out of the pen, but it took just two outings for him to pitch his way out of a job. He lasted just three innings in both of his first two starts, allowing a total of seven runs while walking 11 batters, well more than enough to offset his nine strikeouts. While there's certainly a chance he returns to the rotation (Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez and Brandon Bielak can't have particularly firm grips on their roles) and also a chance he finds his way into save situations given how badly the Astros' bullpen has also been decimated by injuries, it's hard to hang onto him at this point in most leagues given his role and early performances.

Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers: Boyd was a pitcher I was personally very high on during draft season, as his 23.9 strikeout-minus-walk rate ranked eighth among qualified starters in 2019, right between Walker Buehler and Yu Darvish, and was far better than what you were typically going to get around his draft price. I was prepared for disappointment if he continued to give up plenty of hard contact, which helped lead to his 4.56 ERA last season despite a far better 3.88 xFIP. I wasn't prepared for the type of disappointment he's provided, as his strikeout rate has plummeted from 30.2 percent last season to just 18.3 percent through his first three starts. He hasn't seen a meaningful velocity drop, thankfully, but he's been just plain hittable, as  hitters' contact rate against him has jumped from 71.7 percent to 80.3 percent. He's also failed to get ahead of batters, with his first-pitch strike rate dropping from an above-average 64.3 percent to a well below average 52.1 percent.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox: As mentioned in Alex Verdugo's section above, Benintendi has already lost his leadoff role in Boston, and it's hard to argue with that move. Through 12 games, he's hit an all-around awful .056/.261/.083, with a 21.3 percent walk rate standing as the only redeeming feature of his statline. He's struck out in 34.0 percent of his plate appearances, quite a worry for a player who struck out just 22.8 percent of the time last year. That number was already a somewhat worrying sign for the outfielder, as avoiding strikeouts had been part of his game in his first two seasons, in which he posted strikeout rates of 17.0 and 16.0 percent. Benintendi has never been a big power guy, topping out at 20 homers, and he stole just 10 bases last season, so if he's now also not going to be hitting for average, he doesn't do a whole lot to help a fantasy team.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Stanton is injured. The delayed season was seemingly a good thing for the slugger, as it bought him the time to recover from the calf issue that was expected to cause him to miss the season's original Opening Day. While he was indeed ready to go when play resumed, and while he hit a strong .293/.453/.585 in his first 14 games of the year, it wasn't long at all before the injury bug returned, even as he was strictly limited to designated hitter duty. This time around, it's a hamstring strain which has sent him to the injured list, with an MRI pending as of writing. Even if he were to return after a minimum-length stay, that would still represent a sizable portion of the Yankees' remaining schedule, and given his injury history, there's no reason to be confident he'll remain injury-free upon his return.