MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

It's now been more than a month since the 2019 season opened. The first handful of players has begun to pass the 100-plate-appearance threshold. Given our natural human preference for round numbers, it's beginning to feel as though we're looking at legitimate baseball stats and standings. It's seemingly starting to become obvious which of our fantasy teams have title chances and which will be in for long seasons.

On the other hand, at least in my case, the distinction between those two categories seems to be largely, "Did you draft Chris Sale in this league?" Sale could still have another 29 starts left and is finally looking more like himself, however, showing his typical velocity in his most recent start. Giancarlo Stanton owners could have their primary source of power back within a few days. Those who drafted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as one of their top hitters have yet to receive an at-bat from a player who could well be their best hitter the rest of the way.

Despite the nice round numbers, it's decidedly not yet time to panic. If one of your league-mates can get nearly a month of a .418 batting average from Tim Anderson of all people, the same can surely happen to you. A savvy fantasy owner doesn't need that, though, as over five months of getting incremental value from lineup decisions, waiver moves and trades is plenty of time to generate enough excess value to close most gaps in the standings.

RISERS

Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees: No one has benefited from the Yankees' injury crisis more than Clint Frazier. With Aaron Judge's oblique injury adding to Giancarlo Stanton's biceps strain and Aaron Hicks' back stiffness, Frazier should continue to get opportunities in the Yankees' outfield for quite some time. He's certainly made the most of his opportunities, hitting .339 with six homers in 17 games. He's trimmed his strikeout rate to 20.9 percent after it was 30.6 percent through his first two partial big-league seasons. The 24-year-old has always been an interesting prospect and appears to be showing why now that he finally has a chance for regular at-bats.

Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Contreras' 2018 campaign failed to live up to lofty expectations, as he hit just .249 with 10 homers. He's done more than live up to expectations this season, hitting .321/.465/.714 with six home runs. His supporting stats are almost universally positive. His .673 expected slugging percentage according to Statcast indicates that he's largely earned his excellent power numbers. His barrel rate has more than doubled (to 18.9 percent), his launch angle has increased more than four degrees (to 10.9), his hard-hit rate has increased more than seven points (to 40.5 percent) and his walk rate has jumped from 9.7 to 16.4 percent. Contreras looks to be firmly back in the top tier of catchers along with J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez.

Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays: Stroman was basically free during draft season, coming in with an NFBC ADP of 334.1. It was an understandable price for a pitcher coming off an injury-plagued season in which he recorded a 5.54 ERA. He appears to be quite the bargain through his first five starts, recording a 1.76 ERA. The improvement has come on the back of a significant change in his pitch mix, as he's dramatically increased his usage of his curveball (up from 13.7 percent to 34.2) while throwing his fastball far less (down from 49.2 to 38.5 percent) and cutting his slider almost entirely (down from 16.7 to 3.4 percent). The changes have led to a career-high 22.8 percent strikeout rate, and the improvement looks legitimate.

Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs: Outside of an awful outing in which the Brewers scored eight runs in three innings, Quintana hasn't allowed a single earned run this season. His last two starts, he's thrown 14 scoreless innings, striking out 18 while walking just one. On the season, his 3.43 ERA is higher than he deserves according to his 3.19 FIP and considerably higher according to his 2.50 xFIP, second lowest among qualified starters. His 31.5 percent strikeout rate is easily the highest of his career and is more than 10 points higher than his mediocre 21.4 percent mark from last season. The jump appears well-supported, as his swinging-strike rate is a strong 13.3 percent after coming in below league average in each of his first seven seasons.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B, Royals: Dozier was more or less completely overlooked during draft season, and for good reason, as he showed little promise last season, hitting .229/.278/.395 with 11 homers in 102 games. He's suddenly a new man in his age-27 season, with six homers and a .304/.410/.623 line through 20 games. The improvement is surprising but is backed by his supporting statistics, with Statcast giving him an expected .298 batting average and a .606 slugging percentage, while his average exit velocity has jumped from 89.5  to 94.4 mph. He's also improved his plate discipline, more than doubling his walk rate (from 6.2 to 14.5 percent) while slashing his strikeout rate from 28.1 to 20.5 percent. He'd be even more interesting if he played in a better park or for a better team, but he's certainly far more valuable than expected.

FALLERS

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Brewers: Betting that Aguilar would regress after his breakout 2018 campaign wouldn't have been an outlandish prediction. Betting that he'd have zero homers through his first 20 games would certainly have been a hot take, but it would also be correct. His Statcast numbers say he deserves better than his .136 batting average and .167 slugging percentage, but even matching his .219 expected batting average and .348 expected slugging percentage would leave him far short of expectations. Aguilar's 11.5 percent walk rate and 21.8 percent strikeout rate are each improvements from last season, but he's in the lineup to do damage when he makes contact, and he simply hasn't done so, with his hard-hit rate tumbling from 42.6 to 30.4 percent. Eric Thames looms behind him on the depth chart should he continue to falter.

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox: Bradley had some sleeper buzz this spring thanks to some strong Statcast numbers and his potential to record 15 homers and 15 steals. He hasn't come close to living up to that hype, hitting a miserable .141/.200/.172. His 29.6 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate are each the worst mark of his career, and all those promising Statcast indicators are trending in the wrong direction. He lost all his gains in exit velocity (down from 91.9 to 87.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (down from 50.1 to 35.6 percent), while his barrel rate is zero percent. Bradley's defense should keep him in the lineup on a regular basis, but he's not doing much for fantasy owners with that playing time at the moment.

Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers: Burnes had some hype in the spring thanks to his prospect pedigree as strong performances in relief last season, especially in the playoffs. He promptly pitched himself off the roster in mid-April, recording a 10.70 ERA in four starts. He allowed a whopping 11 home runs, three more than the next-highest total in the league. Burnes likely suffered from a bit of bad luck, as no pitcher will run a home run per flyball rate anywhere close to his 57.9 percent mark over a full season, but much of the fault lies with him, especially with his fastball. Hitters teed off on the pitch, posting a .469/.527/1.061 line against it, with nine homers in 58 plate appearances. He'll need to sort that out when he eventually returns to the big leagues, though his 3.77 xFIP (the exact same figure he posted last season) does at least suggest that he generally pitched well outside of the homer problem.

Jose Peraza, 2B/SS, Reds: Peraza was drafted in the top 100 after a promising season in which he hit .288 with 14 homers and 23 steals. Rather than take a step forward in his age-25 season, he's taken several steps back, hitting .154/.167/.215. His already low 23.6 percent hard-hit rate took a big step backward to 15.6 percent, and his expected batting average sits at just .197. Not only is he hitting the ball with less authority, he's hitting it less often, striking out at a 24.2 percent clip, more than double his strikeout rate from last season. He found himself on the bench twice last week and could continue to lose at-bats if he keeps offering so little at the plate.

Seranthony Dominguez, RP, Phillies: Fantasy owners were unsure if it would be Dominguez or David Robertson getting saves in Philadelphia this season, with Robertson's 182.1 NFBC ADP making him the slight favorite over Dominguez (228.8). Both answers appear to be incorrect, as neither has a save, while Hector Neris has three and Jose Alvarez, Jerad Eickhoff and Pat Neshek each have one. Dominguez has been pitching adequately, as his 4.91 ERA hides a respectable 3.50 FIP and a strong 32.4 percent strikeout rate. The path to a non-closing reliever having broad fantasy appeal requires a heavy workload, but Dominguez hasn't gotten that either, averaging 0.8 innings per appearance, down from 1.1 innings per appearance last season. He may well receive a run of save chances at some point this season, but without any way of predicting when that will come and without a fantasy-relevant role in the meantime, it's hard to justify holding onto him in most formats.