MLB Barometer: Risers and Fallers

A few times a year, I like to take a break from the usual format of this column to present a more objective view. I typically highlight players whose stocks are rising or falling based on what appear to be genuine skill or role changes. That involves looking at things like strikeout rates, walk rates, barrel rates and other stats that purport to represent some underlying skill.

Every fantasy league I've ever seen gives a player credit for his results, rather than his process, however, which is something makes fantasy baseball an imperfect representation of actual baseball but that I believe adds an enjoyable wrinkle and tests skills on the behalf of fantasy managers which are interesting to see tested.

In order to stay grounded in the things that matter most directly to a player's fantasy value, I like to do the occasional column that compares a player's NFBC average draft position to his ranking on our Earned Auction Values page. While I definitely think it's correct to spend most of our time focusing on a player's skills, the occasional check-in with these numbers prevents us from overlooking players who may have only mediocre skills but whose team context has allowed them to perform well in stats that are less directly under their control such as wins, runs and RBI. Erik Halterman compares players' NFBC ADPs to their Earned Auction Values, beginning with Tony Gonsolin.

I went through this exercise at the one-month point of the season, and while there was no column that lined up directly with the two-month mark, we'll go through it again at the 2.2-month mark, which I'm sure is a milestone you all celebrate each year. As with the last time I wrote a piece like this, I'll use players' NFBC ADP from March 11 (the day after the lockout ended) through Opening Day. I've ranked the risers by the percent of the way they've improved toward the No. 1 overall spot, as it's more impressive to see a player jump from 100th to 10th than from 600th to 400th.

RISERS

Note: I've skipped risers who are still unrosterable in 15-team leagues even after their rise, i.e., those whose earned value rankings place them outside the top 450.

Starting Pitchers

Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers: Players like Gonsolin are why I like to look at things from this angle every now and then. When I put together my shortlist for a typical column, I'm usually looking at things like ERA estimators and K-BB rates. Gonsolin doesn't necessarily pop off the page there. His 8.3 percent walk rate is almost exactly average, and his 24.8 percent strikeout rate is above average but not by a large amount. Toss in a 45.5 percent ground-ball rate that's only slightly higher than average and you get estimators like his 3.65 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA, solid figures to be sure but not ones that would give him the second-round value he's actually produced. While it's taken a bit of luck (in the form of a .193 BABIP and 88.1 percent strand rate) to get him to his 1.58 ERA, he's also gotten plenty of value from his seven wins, just one shy of the league lead. Even if Gonsolin doesn't have the skills of a truly elite pitcher, he's a very solid one who pitches for a great team in a pitcher-friendly park, so he'll remain quite valuable even if his luck turns.

Relief Pitchers

Ryan Helsley, Cardinals: Heading into this season, Helsley was an entirely unremarkable reliever. Despite averaging 97.7 mph with his fastball across his first three years in the majors, he'd struck out just 21.7 percent of opposing batters while walking 11.4 percent, leading to a forgettable 4.03 ERA and an even worse 4.46 FIP and 4.96 xFIP. Those numbers look nothing like the pitcher he's suddenly become this year. His fastball now averages 99.1 mph, helping his strikeout rate spike to 39.3 percent, good for third among qualified relievers. He's also cut his walk rate to 7.1 percent. He's given up just a single earned run all season, giving him an 0.37 ERA. That number will surely rise along with his .133 BABIP, but it should rise to a point that still leaves him as one of the league's most dominant relievers. The fact that he's risen this far already is remarkable considering that he's only saved five games, though that number should jump now that he's the primary closer in St. Louis. He's saved four games since the last time Giovanny Gallegos recorded a save back on May 20.

Catchers

MJ Melendez, Royals: Yes, the amount of spots gained in the above chart drops off dramatically after the top three, but Melendez is easily the most interesting member of the group. The 23-year-old rookie has already moved up a fair amount from his draft-day price despite the fact that he didn't make his big-league debut until nearly a month into the season. Melendez's bat was supposed to be quite special for a backstop, and that looks true already, as his .258/.333/.468 slash line through 36 games is good for a 126 wRC+. That figure is even more impressive when considering the difficulties many top prospects have had adjusting to the highest level this year. Melendez was supposed to be a power-over-hit bat, though his 22.5 percent strikeout rate suggests he won't have any issues making contact. The power is definitely real, as seen in his 10.8 percent barrel rate. His bat has been good enough that the Royals have found a spot for him in the lineup for 28 straight games, with six of those starts coming as a designated hitter and five more coming in right field.

Corner Infielders

Pete Alonso, Mets: I loved Alonso heading into the year for two reasons: first, seeing him cut his strikeout rate to 19.9 percent last year suggested a new level of offensive output was coming, and second, the revamped Mets lineup figured to give him one of the best team contexts in all of baseball. Things have more or less played out in exactly that way, though even a believer like me wouldn't have pegged him as a top-five fantasy option. He's only given back a small amount of his strikeout gains, whiffing 20.8 percent of the time, and that's helped him to a career-best .284 batting average, a number which should be sustainable if he keeps making this much contact. The team context has been as expected as well, as the Mets lead the league in runs scored this season, helping Alonso to 57 RBI, nine more than anyone else in the National League and trailing only Jose Ramirez's 59 overall. To top it all off, the 27-year-old is making the best contact of his career, with a career-high 15.6 percent barrel rate helping him to 18 homers, another NL-leading mark.

Middle Infielders

Thairo Estrada, Giants: Thairo Estrada, fifth-round pick? It sounds no more right to me than I assume it does to you, but that's the level he's performed at thus far. While he did produce a career-best 119 wRC+ last season, that came in just 132 plate appearances as he bounced between the majors and minors throughout the year. There was little reason to believe he'd emerge from the Giants' pile of largely interchangeable options this season, but he's instead gone on to start 52 out of 60 games thus far. He's earned those at-bats by hitting a respectable .276/.326/.407 (109 wRC+). He doesn't hit the ball hard at all, as his 2.3 percent barrel rate suggests he could struggle to reach double-digit homers, but he makes a ton of contact, striking out just 14.2 percent of the time. That should keep his average high and should continue to give him plenty of opportunities to run, helping him add to his eight steals. I'd be surprised if he finished as a top-100 player, but he's a very useful option as long as he keeps playing this regularly.

Outfielders

Adolis Garcia, Rangers:  Like many others, I was skeptical about Garcia's ability to repeat his numbers from his breakout 2021 campaign and was largely uninterested in him during draft season. This was a player who'd never done anything prior to his age-28 season, after all, and he faded hard down the stretch, posting a 69 wRC+ after the break after storming out to a 126 wRC+ in the first half. He also had awful plate discipline, striking out 31.2 percent of the time while walking at a 5.1 percent clip. Things have turned out far better than expected, however, as his lopsided .243/.290/.461 slash line is good for a 112 wRC+, a number to which he's added 12 homers and nine steals. He's still not walking, but he's at least trimmed his strikeout rate to a more palatable 27.8 percent while not losing any power, so it's possible a better average is on the horizon. He doesn't really need one given his power-speed combination, however, as only Jose Ramirez and Jazz Chisholm can match him in both homers and steals. 

FALLERS

Note: I've excluded players who missed at least a month with injuries in order to keep this about performance. Players who were kept in the minors to start the year are also skipped, but those who poor performance saw them be demoted are eligible to appear.

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke, Royals: On Opening Day, Greinke struck out just a single batter. In his next outing, he struck out none. In his third of the year, he struck out just one again. He escaped with a 2.25 ERA over that stretch despite his 3.2 percent strikeout rate, but it was never going to last. Over his next seven outings, his strikeout rate more than quadrupled but still sat at a startlingly low 14.4 percent, while his ERA regressed as expected, jumping to 6.31. He's been out with a flexor strain since the end of May, and while he's already made one rehab start and should return soon, there's very little reason to have any interest in him once that happens. Strikeouts are a category on their own, so he'll hurt your team significantly there in the same way that rostering a hitter with zero power does, but it's also quite difficult to maintain even respectable ratios with a strikeout rate as low as his season-long 11.2 percent mark. Over the last decade, only 11 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings with so few whiffs, and they've averaged a 4.71 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Relief Pitchers

Drew Steckenrider, Mariners: Steckenrider led the Mariners' closer committee with 14 saves last season, so in one sense it's no surprise many drafters turned to him as a potential source of cheap saves over the winter. A cursory glance at his underlying numbers indicated that he had little hope of repeating that feat, however. While he did manage a strong 6.4 percent walk rate, his 21.7 percent strikeout rate and 37.4 percent groundball rate didn't look like high-leverage reliever numbers and made his 2.00 ERA hard to buy into. His walk and groundball rates took small steps back this season, but his strikeout rate cratered to 14.7 percent, sending his ERA all the way up to 5.65. He was optioned in late May and eventually designated for assignment over this past weekend. The lesson here seems to be that if you're going to take chances on a committee member, go for the one who gets strikeouts. Not only will they at least be useful in one category, they'll also be more likely to remain as part of the committee next season.

Catchers

Joey Bart, Giants: Bart was the second-overall pick in the 2018 draft and carried plenty of prospect pedigree with him as he ascended through the minors, but his numbers through his first 71 career MLB games illustrate how tough it is for even a highly-rated young catcher to have immediate success at the plate. He's hit just .201/.293/.312 for his career while homering just four times. All four of those homers came in his 36 games this season, but he also had a harder time than ever making contact, striking out 45.4 percent of the time while hitting just .156. Despite entering the year as Buster Posey's heir apparent and despite the fact that the Giants' top alternative is forgettable veteran Curt Casali, that performance was poor enough that he was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento last week. Bart's previous hype may generate renewed fantasy buzz once he eventually returns to the majors, but it's tough having any faith in him in the short-term with strikeout issues that extreme.

Corner Infielders

Spencer Torkelson, Tigers: Speaking of top draft picks getting sent down, how long until the same thing happens to Torkelson? The 2020 first-overall pick deservedly generated plenty of hype when he made the Tigers' Opening Day roster, but it's been an ugly rookie season for the young first baseman thus far. Through 55 games, he's homered just four times while slashing 181/.281/.292. He isn't showing any signs of turning things around, grabbing just two hits in his last nine games. In some ways, it's admirable that the Tigers are letting him work on his flaws at the highest level, and they're already far enough out of the playoff picture that they may as well continue to do so, but at some point this must be getting damaging for his long-term confidence. He simply looks overmatched, striking out 27.0 percent of the time while producing a merely average 7.6 percent barrel rate, a combination which simply doesn't cut it at first base. If you're determined to be optimistic, you can point to his 20.5 percent strikeout rate over his last 22 games as progress, but he's homered just once over that stretch while posting a 79 wRC+.

Middle Infielders

Javier Baez, Tigers: The risks with signing Baez to a six-year deal this past winter were obvious, as the tremendously talented but frequently frustrating shortstop was coming off a pair of seasons in which he struck out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances. Knowing that and seeing Baez's .193/.236/.294 line this season, you might think that his strikeout issues have gotten worse. Surprisingly, he's actually striking out just 25.6 percent of the time, his lowest mark since 2016, but it doesn't appear to be helping him. He's actually gotten even less disciplined at the plate, swinging at a career-high 48.3 percent of pitches outside the zone, the highest mark among qualified hitters. That seems like it should increase his strikeout rate eventually now, but for now it's instead resulting in a ton of weak contact. His 7.3 percent barrel rate and 35.0 percent hard hit rate are both his worst marks since 2016, and he's only homered three times. To top it all off, he's only attempted a single steal. It's not looking good for Baez, even if it's looking a bit different than usual.

Outfielders

Austin Meadows, Tigers: I'm not trying to pick on the Tigers here, but it's hard not to complete this article with anything other than a third straight struggling Detroit bat, as all three of the team's Opening Day outfielders find themselves among the five biggest disappointments at the position. Some of Meadows' drop comes from the fact that he missed over three weeks with an inner-ear infection, but he's played enough to qualify here and has fallen far short of expectations when available. On the whole, his .246/.343/.328 slash line could actually be considerably worse, as it's good for a 100 wRC+, but when most of that value comes from his walk rate, he's not helping many fantasy teams. He's actually striking out at an excellent 12.1 percent clip, but he's hitting the ball with less authority than normal, barreling just 6.7 percent of his batted balls while failing to homer even once. His increased contact rate would make him quite interesting if the power eventually comes around, but it's evaporated to such an extreme extent that it's hard to be optimistic about that happening.