MLB Barometer: Every Starting Pitcher Dealt at the Deadline

Last week, I covered the five biggest deals of the trade deadline as well as every hitter who was dealt. Ryan Rufe covered every reliever trade, and this article completes the set, covering every starting pitcher who was moved in the week leading up to July 30. We'll be back to the standard MLB Barometer format next week.

For any prospect included in one of these deals, I'll note his current level and his current rank on our Top 400 Prospect Rankings. I'll leave the deeper analysis there to those more qualified. For every major leaguer, I'll note their old and new park factors in terms of wOBA, the best measure of overall offense. (Higher means more hitter-friendly.) I'll also include the winning percentage of their old team and the winning percentage of their new team, as an improvement in winning chances can be one of the biggest ways a starter's value can change at the deadline.

Starting Pitchers

Mets get SP Paul Blackburn
Athletics get SP Kade Morris (A+, NR)

Blackburn has been plugging away as an innings-eater with an ideal setup for ratios but a poor setup for wins the past several years. Since the start of the 2022 season, he's gone 16-15 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, combining a strikeout rate that's slightly worse than league average (20.4 percent) with a walk rate that's slightly better (7.7 percent). The move to Queens places him in another great pitchers' park and also gives him a better chance of winning games, but he's still Paul Blackburn at the end of the day.

Guardians get SP Alex Cobb
Giants get SP Jacob Bresnahan (A, NR), player to be named later

Cobb had been out all year while dealing with hip and shoulder injuries, but he was six outings into a rehab assignment when the Giants elected to send him to Cleveland, opening up a rotation spot for Hayden Birdsong. Cobb made one more rehab start in the Guardians' organization and is now poised to make his season debut. He'll be a key piece down the stretch for a Guardians team that has the best record in the American League despite a rotation that sits 24th in ERA (4.54). Cobb may be 36 years old and is far removed from his days as part of an intimidating young trio with David Price and Chris Archer in Tampa Bay, but he's enjoyed an impressive late-career renaissance. Since the start of the 2021 season, he's combined a slightly above-average strikeout rate (22.8 percent) with a good walk rate (6.8 percent) and an elite groundball rate (58.1 percent), a combination that has led to a 3.79 ERA and an even better 3.24 xFIP.

Orioles get SP Zach Eflin
Rays get SP Jackson Baumeister (A+, 339), OF Mac Horvath (A+, 345), OF Matthew Etzel (397)

Eflin produced a fine but forgettable 4.10 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across his last four years in Philadelphia, battling injuries that forced him to the bullpen at the end of his Phillies tenure. Since signing with the Rays prior to last season, he's improved to a 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, though he was much better on both fronts in 2023 than in 2024. He's lost the ability to miss bats this year, with his strikeout rate cratering from 26.5 percent to 18.9 percent, but a league-leading walk rate of 2.7 percent has kept him as a viable option. He'll close the season in a park that isn't quite as pitcher-friendly as his old home, but he should see a slight increase in win chances after the move.

Dodgers get SP Jack Flaherty
Tigers get C Thayron Liranzo (A+, 262), SS Trey Sweeney (AAA)

Flaherty is having an outstanding comeback campaign after settling for a one-year prove-it contract with the Tigers. Among the 89 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched this year, he ranks seventh in ERA (2.80) and second in both xFIP (2.60) and SIERA (2.73). He's a great addition for the Dodgers, giving the team a terrifying three-headed monster to lead its rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Flaherty. It's hard to envision any opposing team being favored in a playoff series if those three enter October in good shape.

Flaherty gets a boost to his win chances with the move to Los Angeles and should improve on the 7-5 record he managed in Detroit, but the fact that someone pitching like this could only garner such a modest return suggests that teams were worried about his health. The shoulder issues that plagued him in previous seasons haven't been a concern, but he's dealt with recurring back problems in recent weeks, receiving a painkilling injection on two occasions. Toss in Ken Rosenthal's report that the Yankees backed out of a deal for Flaherty due to medical concerns and it seems that while the Dodgers were comfortable adding him, they weren't pushed into much of a bidding war. Expect Flaherty to continue pitching well and to earn more wins for his efforts, but also expect him to be handled quite carefully until October, and that's the good outcome. The bad outcome is that the teams who declined to outbid the Dodgers are correct, and Flaherty's season is about to go off the rails.

Astros get SP Yusei Kikuchi
Blue Jays get OF Joey Loperfido, SP Jake Bloss (AAA, 237), 1B Will Wagner (AAA, NR)

A large percentage of the Blue Jays' roster underperformed over the first four months of the season, but whether you lump Kikuchi in with that group depends on if you look at his ERA (4.67) or his ERA estimators (3.35 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA). His walk rate sits at a career-low 6.4 percent, while his strikeout rate (27.2 percent) is a 10th of a point shy of a career high. If his ERA falls toward his ERA estimators over the final two months, he'll be a key addition for an Astros team that's struggling to meet expectations this season, in large part due to an abundance of injuries in the rotation. As for Loperfido, he's been unable to replicate his minor-league success, slashing .234/.294/.355 through his first 42 major-league games while striking out 38.0 percent of the time. He appears set for an everyday role in Toronto after filling the large side of a platoon in Houston, so the move is an upgrade for his fantasy value, but there's no guarantee he's much help down the stretch.

Royals get SP Michael Lorenzen
Rangers get RP Walter Pennington (AAA)

Lorenzen helped round out the Rangers rotation for the first four months of the season, but his 3.69 ERA comes with a 5.08 SIERA, as his strikeout rate (18.1 percent) and walk rate (11.3 percent) are both significantly worse than league average. With the Rangers set to welcome multiple injured starters back over the last two months of the campaign, Lorenzen became superfluous, but his fantasy value is preserved with this move, as he'll remain in the rotation in Kansas City rather than heading to the Texas bullpen.

Red Sox get SP James Paxton
Dodgers get 3B Moises Bolivar (DSL, NR)

This move is a downgrade for Paxton compared to the position he'd been in for most of the year, as he finds himself pitching in a more hitter-friendly park for a worse team. But it's a big upgrade compared to where he found himself immediately before the deal, namely, designated for assignment. Paxton produced a 4.43 ERA in 18 starts for the Dodgers, with a 5.50 SIERA suggesting things could have been considerably worse. Neither his 16.4 percent strikeout rate nor his 12.3 percent walk rate were anywhere close to acceptable. Moving to Boston means he's still a potential streaming option rather than being out of the league, but once you get past the name value and look at who he actually is at this stage of his career, it's hard to justify rostering the 35-year-old lefty.

Padres get SP Martin Perez
Pirates get SP Ronaldys Jimenez (DSL, NR)

Perez ate innings for the Pirates for the first four months of the year, and he'll eat innings for a slightly better team in a better park for the remainder of the campaign. The move represents an upgrade for him, but he owns a 4.96 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 17 starts this season, so there aren't many fantasy teams for which even the upgraded version of Perez has much appeal.

Red Sox get SP Quinn Priester
Pirates get 2B Nick Yorke (AAA, 89)

Priester was a first-round pick back in 2019 and is still just 23 years old, so he could have a bright future ahead of him, especially now that he's found himself in an organization that has quickly picked up a reputation for knowing what to do with pitchers under the new regime of Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow. He owns a 6.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 94.2 career MLB innings, though, so the Red Sox coaching staff has their work cut out for them. He was sent to the minors for now, but keep his name in mind for the future should he find his way into a rotation spot.

Orioles get SP Trevor Rogers
Marlins get OF Kyle Stowers, 2B Connor Norby (AAA, 90)

This was one of the strangest moves of the deadline, an apparent overpay for a lefty whose numbers over the last three seasons (5.02 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) are significantly worse than Cole Irvin's (4.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), a pitcher who's lost both his rotation spot and his roster spot in Baltimore in recent weeks. The Orioles must have seen some adjustments they can make, and they'll have Rogers under team control through the end of the 2026 season, so they'll have plenty of time to enjoy the fruits of any changes they manage to make. Rogers did have a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 2021, so there's a template for what he looks like when he's at his best, but his fastball averaged 94.6 mph that year and sits at just 92.2 mph this year, so he might not ever get back to being that guy. For fantasy purposes, though, the deal represents a big step forward just in terms of his win chances, but he'll have to show something more to get fantasy players actually excited to roster him. As for Stowers, he gets a big upgrade going from stuck at Triple-A with the Orioles to filling the large side of a platoon with the Marlins, but he'll have to hit much better than his .215/.259/.339 line with four homers in 72 career major-league games to date if he's going to have much fantasy value. Norby was sent to the minors after the trade but should eventually have a better path to playing time than he did in his former organization.