Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Welcome back to the Minor League Barometer. This article will operate every week as it has in the past: to analyze several phenoms helping or hurting their causes. It'll be skewed more toward players closer to the big leagues, but that doesn't mean we won't highlight neophytes at the lower levels. This isn't a ranking of prospects. And each article isn't supposed to be exhaustive. Fantasy impact will also be weighed more heavily over real-life impact.

For the first Minor League Barometer, let's focus on a few players who will either make the Opening Day rosters for their respective squads or certainly make their way to the Majors later this season. And after this week, we'll try to stay away from the obvious names - though there are too many elite talents on the cusp of getting to the bigs to ignore.

UPGRADE

Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX – Less than a year after being drafted, Langford will make the Texas roster out of spring training.  Langford destroyed minor league pitching at every level after being taken fourth overall while hitting a combined .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs, 30 RBI and 12 steals in 44 games, finishing the year at Triple-A. And he didn't stop mashing this spring batting .375 with six homers and 20 RBI across 18 contests. Langford is expected to have an immediate impact as a left fielder and DH while combining hard-hit balls, patience at the dish and above-average speed. He should be the most-discussed phenom heading into the year, but don't forget about Evan Carter, who still technically hasn't exhausted his prospect eligibility.

Jackson Holliday, SS/2B, BAL – Holliday could've easily been certainly been the most popular phenom, though the Orioles decided to exercise patience with the 20-year-old and sent him to Triple-A. He slashed .311/.354/.600 with two home runs and two steals this spring. Holliday has found little resistance in the minors since being drafted No. 1 in 2022, so he's unlikely to stay there very long. The Orioles still have plenty of middle-infield options, and he may end up playing second base instead of shortstop, so this could give him additional time to work on his defense. Any holes in Holliday's game are exaggerated and he easily could have started the year with the big club. His debut will arrive sooner rather than later for the expected-to-be-contending Orioles.

Jackson Chourio, OF, MIL – Chourio likely would have made the Brewers anyway this spring, though that became a virtual guarantee once he signed an eight-year, $82 million contract. He just turned 20, yet looked polished in spring training by batting .328. Chourio won a minor-league Gold Glove in 2022 as a centerfielder, something that also certainly played a role in him making the club. He clubbed 23 homers and stole 42 bags primarily at Double-A last season. Despite only logging six games above that level over his pro career, Chourio will be an everyday player for the Brew Crew to begin the season and may only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.

Colt Keith, 3B/2B, DET – Although not quite as highly touted as Chourio, Keith also inked a contract extension this offseason that all but assured him a spot on the Opening Day roster. He played primarily third base in the minors, though the Tigers list other options there and want to find him a secure place to gain consistent at-bats. Keith slashed .306/.380/.552 with 27 home runs and 101 RBI between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He represents a bat-first prospect who should garner significant playing time no matter where he ends up on the diamond.

CHECK STATUS

Jackson Merrill, OF, SD – Merrill went 13-for-37 during spring training to earn the job as the Padres' starting centerfielder. He covered shortstop in the minors, though San Diego's lack of outfield depth following the Juan Soto trade allowed him to earn the starting outfield role. Merrill went hitless in the first Seoul game, but was 2-for-5 in the next outing. He makes consistent contact, though also offers the size for plus-power and can even steal a few bases. Merrill will turn 21 next month, so some growing pains should be expected. At the same time, his hit tool is special.

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA – Schanuel was fast-tracked to the Majors after being drafted last season, largely due to his impressive handle of the strike zone. He tallied more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) during his 29 games with the Angels, though he's also battled some minor ailments. Schanuel also missed some time earlier this spring due to a back issue. He doesn't project for much power and doesn't hit the ball consistently either hard enough or in the air enough to see significant production, which would limit his fantasy upside. As such, Schanuel may end up being a better real-life player than fantasy contributor.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, AZ – Lawlar remains a top-tier prospect, but the 21-year-old has struggled during his brief taste at the big leagues having batted .129 from 31 at-bats with the Diamondbacks late last year. He didn't do much better this spring going .176 in 17 plate appearances. Lawlar was subsequently optioned back to Triple-A. The sample size is incredibly small, and he's still considered Arizona's shortstop of the future despite the presence of Geraldo Perdomo. Lawlar may still spend at least the first few weeks in the minors getting everyday at-bats before returning to the parent club.

Curtis Mead, 2B/3B, TB – Mead appears to be in the unenviable situation of being a Tampa prospect on a crowded roster. Injuries to Jonny DeLuca and Josh Lowe may cause some players to be shifted around to leave Mead with a roster spot, yet it remains to be seen just how much playing time he'll immediately receive. He was decent, albeit unspectacular, during 24 games with the Rays in 2023 while slashing .253/.326/.349. Mead will need to hit for average in the Majors to sustain utility as his power is mediocre and he doesn't steal many bags. It isn't time to give up on him yet, though the possibility exists where he gets lost in the shuffle. There's also Junior Caminero, which doesn't help Mead's cause.

DOWNGRADE

Brayan Rocchio, SS, CLE – Rocchio will be receiving most of his action at shortstop to start 2024.  He's been known in prospect circles for some time since his impressive teenage debut. Rocchio hit .280 with 25 steals in 116 games at Triple-A a season ago while drawing almost as many walks (60) as strikeouts (66). On the downside, Rocchio went just .247 from 23 ML games following a promotion last season, and his peripheral stats weren't pretty as he fanned 27 times while only picking up four walks and failing to record a homer or steal. In fact, he managed just seven home runs over all stops last year. While Rocchio is essentially the Guardians' starting shortstop, it remains to be seen if he'll be able to adjust and produce at a fantasy-relevant level.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/OF, BOS – Rafaela is an impeccable athlete whose defense may be his best asset. He also mashed last season at Triple-A to earn a promotion to the bigs, where he even clubbed two home runs and swiped three bases in 28 contests. At 5"9', Rafaela isn't an intimidating presence at the dish, though he generates far more power than expected.  Unfortunately, patience isn't his strong suit as he walked four times while striking out on 28 occasions in Boston. Rafaela's plate discipline was always mediocre at best, so the potential exists for opposing pitchers to use that aggressiveness against him. He's been solid at the plate this spring, so perhaps he'll be an exception to the rule.