Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Perhaps no prospect this spring has either helped or confirmed his elite status than Bobby Witt.  At just 20, he's hitting .333/.379/.667 with three home runs and seven RBI through 11 games. Witt has shown prodigious power and may end up shifting to third base when all is said and done. The No. 2 overall selection from 2019 has yet to play a true, complete minor league season with the COVID stoppage in 2020, yet looked polished at the alternate site last year more than holding his own against more experienced players. Witt has the chance to be special - in a five-tool-caliber type of way - and his timeline appears to have been moved up. He could make his MLB debut as early as this season, which would represent a meteoric rise.

Let's take a look at the rest of the prospect landscape in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Deivi Garcia, P, NYY – Garcia appears to have the inside track at the No. 5 position in the Yankees' starting rotation. Even if Garcia does not eventually get the nod, the club carries a bevy of injury risks and question marks. Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon have checkered pasts when it comes to health while Jordan Montgomery is far from a sure thing, while the Yankees continue to take heat for the decision to keep Domingo German on the team despite his off-the-field issues. With fellow prospect Clarke Schmidt injured, Garcia may end up being the most sensible - and most talented - option for the Bronx Bombers in rounding out their rotation.

Trevor Rogers, P, MIA – Other pitching prospects in the Miami organization get more pub, but Rogers has advanced quickly through the ranks. A first-round pick in 2017, he's averaged over a strikeout per inning during his brief professional career while showing impeccable control. While Rogers' ERA and WHIP from his 2020 debut leave much to be desired, his peripherals were solid with 39 strikeouts in only 28 innings. His fastball has gained a few ticks since entering the minors and his slider has become a wipeout pitch. Add in a workable changeup and Rogers boasts the tools to make the Marlins' rotation out of spring training. He is currently flying under the radar, but may not be hidden for much longer.

Casey Mize, P, DET – The Tigers are in full rebuilding mode, but Mize represents the hope the future could come sooner than expected. Mize leads a trio of ultra-talented hurlers that also features Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal. Both Mize and Skubal could make the starting rotation straight out of camp, although Manning may end up being the best of the trio. Still, it was Mize who was selected No. 1 out of Auburn in 2018. The results were poor when he made his way to the Majors in 2020, but it's impressive - especially as a pitcher - he only took two years from being drafted to make his MLB debut - and in a COVID-shortened season, no less. Mize is getting a fresh start this spring and hasn't given up a run in four innings. His fastball command will be his main focus, but the off-speed offerings and the polish could quickly make him a frontline rotation anchor.

Vidal Brujan, 2B/SS/OF, TB – Brujan's positional flexibility could be what ultimately lets the Rays give him a shot at some at-bats in the bigs. He's played all over the diamond this spring and the Rays are keen on positional versatility. Brujan is blocked up the middle at second by Brandon Lowe and at shortstop by Willy Adames and uber-prospect Wander Franco. Meanwhile, Brujan continues to keep his head down and produce and is hitting .308 in spring play. The speedster has swiped at least 48 bags in each of the last two full minor league seasons and is not completely devoid of power. The path to everyday at-bats may be longer for Brujan, but the Rays will be hard-pressed not to give him a shot if he continues to shine.

CHECK STATUS

Cristian Pache, OF, ATL – The favorite to start in centerfield for the Bravos, Pache's bat has always lagged behind his fielding. Small sample size beware, but he's only hitting .154 (2-for-13) early on in spring training. He has not stolen double-digit bags since Low-A in 2017 and his single-season career-high in homers is 12 from 2019. Pache doesn't walk much while hitting between .270 and .285 at every stop in the minors since 2017. In other words, he may end up being a better real life player than fantasy asset. Pache's glove will carry him, but could have fellow centerfield prospect Drew Waters breathing down his neck if he struggles.

Grayson Rodriguez, P, BAL – The Orioles have been tormented for decades by failed pitching prospects: Daniel Cabrera, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Dylan Bundy. None of these hurlers ever lived up to their promise in a Baltimore uniform. Along with DL Hall, Rodriguez is the next hyped Orioles' arm hoping to buck the trend. Rodriguez certainly looks the part, but then again that was also said about the pitchers referenced above. He offers a dangerous fastball and at least three workable secondary pitches. The O's are starving for an elite starter, but Rodriguez has not pitched above Low-A despite being included at the alternate site in 2020. The track record has simply not been there for development of top-flight pitchers for Baltimore. Whether unfairly or not, Rodriguez will get hurt by that.  Likely to begin the season in Double-A, 2021 will be a huge test towards determining his future path.

MacKenzie Gore, P, SD – Gore gets nicked for a different reason. The Padres went wild in the offseason by trading for both Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. They did part with Luis Patino in the Snell deal, so Gore's main competition in the upper levels of the minors is now gone. On the downside, Snell and Darvish are established stars and Gore suddenly is blocked at the big-league level with Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet coming into their own. Did I mention the Padres also acquired Joe Musgrove? And Mike Clevinger will return from injury in 2022. Suddenly, San Diego is stacked in the starting rotation. Gore offers more upside than arguably any pitcher in the minors, so it'll be tough to hold him back when he puts it all together. He still could start the season with the big club, but it appears more likely it'll be in Triple-A. The Padres have hinted they make take Ryan Weathers instead of Gore as a long reliever and keep the latter in the minors' rotation.

Jared Oliva, OF, PIT – Oliva has brushed off a minor back injury and appears to be firmly in the Pirates' outfield plans for 2021. He's stolen at least 33 bags in each of the last two full minor league seasons while the club rebuild bodes well for his short-term future. Oliva maintains a bit of power and is not afraid to take a walk. He had a cup of coffee with the big club in 2020, and at 25 may be a bit overlooked in terms of prospects. The Pirates left-field situation almost seems like an open competition between Oliva, Brian Goodwin, Anthony Alford and Dustin Fowler. Someone will be getting significant at-bats from that slot to begin the campaign - and it could end up being Oliva.

DOWNGRADE

Leody Taveras, OF, TEX – The youth movement is in full swing for the Rangers. No player over the age of 28 is penciled in as a starter in the infield or outfield and Taveras is the youngest at 22.  He's lost some of his prospect hype over the last couple of seasons, but could still end up starting in centerfield for the big club on Opening Day. The Rangers tried Taveras in the leadoff spot early on in spring training, but he's struggled by going 4-for-20 at the plate. He strikes out a bit too much for a leadoff hitter while his power stroke has not come around as hoped. Taveras does offer decent speed, so it remains to be seen if he can become an impact player.

A.J. Puk, P, OAK – Puk has been limited to just 36.2 innings over the last three seasons combined due to injuries. He has a tremendous fastball and a nasty slider, but his health remains a legitimate concern. The A's are proceeding extremely cautiously with the southpaw, who should begin the season in their bullpen. Puk will also need to work on the development of a third pitch to round out his repertoire if he is to eventually return to the starting rotation. He still has plenty of promise, but his checkered injury history does raise some red flags and he simply has not had enough reps on the mound over the past couple of seasons. Now 25, Puk has been knocked down a few pegs on the prospect charts.

Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, BOS – Downs left Sunday's game after injuring his side and possibly suffering an oblique injury. He was not going to make the big league roster out of camp anyway, but this type of problem could sideline him for a while. Downs is an intriguing prospect with stellar speed and emerging power while providing that juicy combination of double-digit home runs and stolen bases that makes fantasy participants salivate. Unfortunately, his season is likely to be delayed.

Nick Madrigal, 2B, CHW – Madrigal underwent offseason shoulder surgery and after playing in just one game earlier this month has not appeared in a contest since. It's been labeled residual soreness, so hopefully it isn't something bigger. Madrigal played in 29 games for the White Sox in 2020 and hit .340. From a fantasy perspective, he leaves something to be desired by not projecting for power and may barely reach double-digit steals. Madrigal is a polished, professional hitter at the dish with superior contact skills, but is something of a throwback player when compared to the mashers of the current era. A balky shoulder definitely won't help Madrigal's case.