Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The start of the Triple-A season has been pushed back to May, lining up with the remainder of the minor league slate. As a result, there is even more pressure for prospects to perform in the spring if they want to force the hand of their respective organizations. On the flip side, organizations will feel the heat of evaluating their phenoms quickly and efficiently. If the player does not make the squad out of spring training, the most they will "see" out of that player until May is at the alternate site. This provides a unique situation in which players with less experience may be at a disadvantage. Or if a team decides to go with a neophyte, they may be flying a bit blind.

With no minor league games until at least May, prospect analysis will become tricky. We are left with data from 2019 along with the "eye test" from spring training and the alternate sites. There probably will be more flux in prospect rankings come this summer than ever before. And you know prospect pundits love to tweak their rankings whenever possible.

Here are some more prospects to watch in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Logan Gilbert, P, SEA – George Kirby may be better in the long run, but Gilbert is closer to the big leagues and should see significant time in the starting rotation for the Mariners in 2021. Gilbert attended the same college as both Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber (Stetson) and has found little resistance during his brief time in the minors. In 26 starts across three levels, Gilbert has posted a 2.13 ERA and 165:33 K:BB over 135 innings while opposing batters only hit .198 against him. He was reportedly equally as impressive at the alternate site in 2020. Gilbert carries a big frame at 6-foot-6, 225-lbs, throws hard, stays in the zone, and uses four pitches (though his changeup still needs work). He carries plenty of upside along with ample opportunity for the rebuilding M's and will make his way to the rotation sooner rather than later if he doesn't start the year there.

Tyler Freeman, 2B/SS, CLE – One of the less talked about results of the Francisco Lindor trade to the Mets is that Freeman's path to the big leagues is now free and clear. Of course, he may still end up at second base but it's unlikely either Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez will pose serious threats to Freeman if he develops as expected. Freeman boasts an elite hit tool with emerging power with reports from Cleveland's alternate site suggesting his doubles have been turning into home runs. And with the projection of stealing double-digit bags, this could be his breakout season.

Riley Greene, OF, DET – Spencer Torkelson will get the pub as far as hitting prospects go in the Detroit organization, but Greene has the chance to skyrocket through the minors. He's had an extremely advanced approach at the dish for his age (20) and hit .417 last spring before the COVID shutdown. Greene is a pure hitter from the left side who can access his power despite his youth.  Then there is the Tigers' current outfield consisting of Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara, Victor Reyes and JaCoby Jones. So if Greene gets fastracked, nothing or no one should be standing in his way. 2022 is a more likely scenario for his MLB debut, but a standout hitting profile certainly gives him the chance to push the envelope.

Spencer Howard, P, PHI – This could be an excellent "buy-low" opportunity for a prospect who came into 2020 with a lot of hype. Howard battled shoulder soreness last season and was largely ineffective to the tune of a 5.92 ERA over six starts. However, the sample size is small and the circumstances were less than ideal due to the balky shoulder as well as COVID. The back end of the Phillies' rotation is suspect to say the least, and Philadelphia would be nothing short of thrilled if Howard snatched a rotation spot during the spring.

CHECK STATUS

Jarren Duran, OF, BOS – The opinion on Duran is extremely divided. A speedy contact hitter drafted out of Long Beach State in 2018, his strikeouts took a noticeable jump in 2019 as he attempted to tap into some power. Duran is already 24, so the profile may not change so easily.  He produced some highlight reel plays at the alternate site in 2020 while the Red Sox' outfield is completely revamped with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Andrew Benintendi all gone. On the plus side, a rebuild in Boston could help Duran's chances of seeing the big leagues sooner, as the current outfield of Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe and Alex Verdugo may not inspire much confidence. He isn't the best fielder, so that could put a damper on things.  Duran offers the speed to make a fantasy impact, but whether he can keep his batting average up will go a long way towards determining his future role. He's off to a fast start this spring going 5-for-10 with two home runs and three RBI so far.

Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, MIA – Chisholm will compete for the starting second base job this spring.  He represents a classic new wave type of prospect, as he is ultra-aggressive at the dish with standout power - especially considering his size - and should be able to swipe double-digit bags.  Chisholm is also prone to the strikeout, produces a lot of swings and misses, and thus may not hit for average. He's intriguing for fantasy purposes because of his likely contributions in home runs and stolen bases and also for eligibility at a fairly thin position like second base. Still, Chisholm comes with some risk and could even start the season in the minors.

Brailyn Marquez, P, CHC – While it's unlikely Marquez begins the year in the starting rotation, the Cubbies have seen a massive overhaul at the position in only a short time. Gone are veterans Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana. Kyle Hendricks remains, but the Cubs carry plenty of youth other than Jake Arrieta in the twilight of his career and question marks at the back end. Zach Davies is bound to regress coming over from San Diego, Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay could be starters or relievers, and Trevor Williams is coming off a simply awful 2020 campaign. Marquez is far and away the Cubs' top pitching prospect and throws hard at 22. With the pause of the minors last season, he has not pitched above High-A and command remains a concern at times. Marquez will likely start at Double-A or Triple-A, but a hot start could pressure to promote him to the big leagues - especially if the back end of the rotation struggles as it appears it will.

Daulton Jefferies, P, OAK – A shoulder injury in his final year at Cal coupled with Tommy John surgery is 2017 led to Jefferies largely becoming a forgotten commodity. 2019 was really his first "full" season in the minors, and he finally flashed that promise that made him a high draft pick by posting a 3.42 ERA and 93:9 K:BB in 79 innings between High-A and Double-A. Jefferies pounds the strike zone, but still manages to get plenty of swings and misses. He was brought up for his MLB debut in 2020 and got rocked in two innings of work, but that should not put a damper on future prospects. The A's rotation as currently constructed has some injury risks, including phenoms A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo. If injuries strike, Jefferies could be among the first suggestions to fill a spot, if he himself can stay healthy.

DOWNGRADE

Forrest Whitley, P, HOU – This year was going to be all about whether Whitley could stay healthy.  That question will be answered before the season even begins. Whitley has been recommended for Tommy John surgery following an elbow issue, a crushing blow for a prospect with an already checkered injury history and only pitched 86 innings since the beginning of the 2018 campaign.  The 6-foot-7 right-hander offers elite size and stuff, but has been unable to stay on the mound. If Whitley indeed needs to go under the knife, he will be sidelined for all of this season and likely the beginning of next season. Over a couple seasons, he's gone from one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball to being unlikely to make his MLB debut before the age of 25.

Sherten Apostel, 1B/3B, TEX – For whatever reason, Apostel was rushed to the big leagues last year at 20 even though he had never played above High-A and he didn't exactly have rousing success either. More projection than production, Apostel projects as a power prospect at a corner infield spot. He showed an advanced approach at the dish, which is perhaps why the Rangers felt he was ready for a big jump or at least could handle a huge step up in competition. Instead, Apostel went 2-for-20 in seven games with nine strikeouts. The only takeaway from those numbers is that he clearly needs to spend more time in the minors. Apostel could compete for a bench role with the big club, but he would be better served receiving every day at-bats. His future position also appears to be first base with the presence of top prospect Josh Jung at the hot corner.  Apostel boasts impressive power, but needs more seasoning especially with the Rangers in rebuilding mode.

Joey Bart, C, SF – Buster Posey opted out of the 2020 campaign due to COVID concerns so Bart received an earlier than expected opportunity to get experience at the highest level. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he struggled mightily by only slashing .233/.288/.320 in 33 games while fanning 41 times and drawing just three walks and not hitting a home run. Posey returns for 2021, but the Giants have also signed Curt Casali to be chief backup. With no DH in the National League this season, that means Bart will start the season in the minors. He remains the catcher of the future for the Giants, but every day MLB at-bats may not come steadily until 2022.

Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM – After all the talk in the offseason about the Mets adding a big bat at third base, the team ended up standing pat at the hot corner. J.D. Davis will start at third to begin the season, even though he experienced a down year in 2020 as compared to his breakout the previous campaign. While the lack of a big name signing should bode well for Vientos, he is no longer regarded in the same way as the organization's other top-flight infield prospects, Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty. Meanwhile, the Mets did trade for Francisco Lindor, which could end up blocking shortstop for the foreseeable future if he agrees to an extension. As a result, the path to the big leagues remains just as cloudy as before for Vientos - if not more so - who saw his strikeouts jump significantly in 2019. It will be interesting to see at what level in the minors he starts this season following the canceled 2020 campaign.