Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Detroit Tigers may finally be developing some legitimate pitching talent in the minor leagues.  The Tigers toiled for years as a bottom-five farm system but their mojo appears to be changing, and the plethora of young arms currently stashed represent a big part of that turnaround.  Casey Mize was profiled last week and has unsurprisingly been successful thus far during his brief time down on the farm, as the No. 1 pick of last year's draft has made quick work of the competition in two starts for High-A Lakeland.  Although the Tiger arm with the most upside may be Matt Manning.  The former high school quarterback enjoyed a breakout season in 2018, and hasn't missed a beat so far in 2019 with a 15:3 K:BB in 12 innings at Double-A, allowing just two hits and one earned run in the process.  Perhaps the more eye-opening start has been Manning's rotation mate, Alex Faedo.  While Faedo does not have the pure stuff of Manning or Mize, he has still managed 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of his own at Erie - and has yet to walk a batter.  Beau Burrows hasn't allowed an earned run in two starts for Triple-A Toledo, posting his own 12:2 K:BB in 10.1 innings for the Mud Hens.  If Franklin Perez and Elvin Rodriguez could stay healthy, the Tigers would rival most organizations in terms of quality starting pitching prospects.

Let's take a look at the rest of the prospect scene in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Luis Robert, OF, CWS – Robert is tearing the cover off the ball to begin the 2019 campaign.  The Cuban product struggled with injury and inconsistency in 2018, but is quickly making up for lost time.  After failing to hit a home run in 50 games last season, Robert has already bashed five in nine games for High-A Winston-Salem.  Robert is 19-for-40 (.475) and has also swiped three bags over that span.  The 21-year-old outfielder appears healthy and could be a fast riser based on performance, as well as the monetary investment put in by the White Sox.  It is worth noting the White Sox started 22-year-old wunderkind Eloy Jimenez on the team's opening day roster, even with Arbitration concerns.

MacKenzie Gore, P, SD – Gore is a favorite prospect of mine, and not just because he shares a name with my daughter.  The 20-year-old southpaw gets to pitch in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League in 2019, but thus far has been up to the challenge.  Through two starts, Gore has not allowed a single run and has scatted six hits over 10 innings, walking just two batters while fanning 15.  Gore's 4.45 ERA at Low-A in 2018 doesn't look fantastic, but you have to remember he was just 19 years of age.  Also, his peripherals were stellar, as he struck out 74 batters in 60.2 innings, while walking just 18.  In other words, Gore is only starting to scratch the surface of his potential, with a repertoire that includes a lights-out curveball, wipeout slider, low 90s heater with movement and emerging changeup.  Even with limit innings under his belt, Gore should be considered one of the top arms in all of the minors.

Taylor Trammell, OF, CIN – The Reds have a glut in the outfield with names like Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig and perhaps even fellow prospect Nick Senzel, but Trammell's fast start may only further muddle the Cincinnati outfield situation.  A top-flight phenom due to his intriguing power/speed combination, Trammell is slashing .345/.472/.552 with two home runs, seven RBI and one steal through eight games for Double-A Chattanooga.  Trammell has the potential to hit 20 home runs and swipe 20 bags in a season, and he has never hit below .277 at any level since entering the minors.  With Scott Schebler struggling and Matt Kemp aging, Trammell may end up in the big leagues before the current campaign is completed.

Gavin Lux, SS, LAD – One of the reasons the Dodgers may not be too keen about offering Corey Seager a contract extension is the presence of Lux.  There's also Jeter Downs at High-A, who was acquired in the blockbuster trade with the Reds in December.  However, Lux is currently the crown jewel of the Dodger system, and the 21-year-old is raking at Double-A Tulsa by batting .378 with a home run and six RBI through eight games for the Drillers.  Lux hit .324 between High-A and Double-A last season, posting a career-high 15 home runs while also swiping 13 bags.  Like Trammell above, Lux could also be a potential 20-20 player.

CHECK STATUS

Leody Taveras, OF, TEX – Taveras is repeating High-A after a disappointing 2018 season which saw him hit just .246 with five home runs.  Prior to that dismal campaign, Taveras was viewed as one of the top talents in the lower tiers of the minors.  Still, it has to be pointed out Taveras was 19 years of age last season, one of the youngest players at that level.  Now 20, Taveras is turning things around, batting .395 with seven RBI and three steals through 10 games for the Down East Wood Ducks.  The switch-hitting centerfielder may not hit for much power, but he was not afraid to take a walk in the past and is able to steal a few bases.  It remains to be seen if Taveras can end up back in the elite prospect realm, but he does appear to be righting the ship thus far in 2019.

Jean Carlos Mejia, P, CLE – Signed as a 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, the Indians have brought along Mejia extremely slowly.  However, he has been tagged by several prospect gurus as a breakout candidate in 2019, and so far he has delivered on that promise.  Mejia has posted a 0.82 ERA and 15:2 K:BB in 11 innings for High-A Lynchburg.  Now at 22, Mejia has yielded just four hits in those two starts.  Mejia is already on the 40-man roster and has the looks of a frontline rotation anchor at 6'5", 240.  He also throws strikes and possesses three pitches.  2018 was his first season as a starter, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to the increased usage and change in roles.  That being said, he certainly has the frame to handle the rigors of being a starter.

Zac Gallen, P, MIA – Gallen has turned heads with increased velocity this spring combined with stellar starts to open the Triple-A campaign at New Orleans.  The 23-year-old righty has notched 19 strikeouts through 13 innings at Triple-A New Orleans.  Gallen has surrendered just three measly hits, and has not walked a batter.  This combination of control and strikeout stuff is obviously intriguing; while Gallen did average about one strikeout per inning in 2018 at the same level, he was still surprisingly hittable with opposing batters hitting .281 against.  Whether experience or the spike in heater velocity, the results are dazzling for Gallen through two starts.  The Marlins are embracing the youth movement, so if Gallen continues to sparkle, he could get the call to the show shortly.

Nolan Gorman, 3B, STL – Want to feel old?  Gorman was born in 2000.  A first-round pick in last year's draft, the 18-year-old phenom is living the dream at Low-A Peoria.  Through 10 contests, Gorman is batting .395.442/.368 with four home runs and 13 RBI.  Strikeouts will be worth watching as Gorman continues to ascend to the higher levels, but it's difficult to argue with the results so far - even with the small sample.  He's currently the Cardinals' top prospect, but he won't make his big-league impact for a few years.

DOWNGRADE 

James Kaprielian, P, OAK – The Sonny Gray trade between the Athletics and the Yankees doesn't appear to have worked out for either side, although the A's admittedly could still see some future production from the likes of Dustin Fowler or Jorge Mateo.  Kaprielian has been unable to stay healthy and can only be classified as a massive disappointment thus far.  He is now 25 years of age, yet has pitched a grand total of 29.1 innings in the minors - and hasn't even thrown at any live-game minor league action since 2016.  He's on the Injured List again to start the 2019 season with a shoulder issue.  It seems like the A's pitching prospects in general have been bitten by the injury bug over the last year, with Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Kaprielian all currently sidelined.  It's not all bad for the A's, as Daulton Jefferies - a high pick in his own right from 2016 - has seen the mound at High-A Stockton after missing nearly two years following Tommy John surgery.

Luiz Gohara, P, ATL – The Braves own an embarrassment of riches in terms of pitching phenoms coming through the ranks, with hurlers like Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka and Bryse Wilson already seeing the big leagues.  Gohara has also been to the promised land, but has been trending in the wrong direction over the past year or so.  He was shuffled between Triple-A and the Majors, between the Injured List and active duty, between the starting rotation and the bullpen.  He maintained his strikeout stuff throughout, but battled an assortment of injuries and became prone to surrendering the long ball.  He gave up nine long balls in 12 starts at Triple-A, then another three home runs in nine appearances for the Braves while mostly working out of the bullpen.  As a left-handed power arm, the bullpen may be where he ends up in the long run.  He starts the 2019 season on the Injured List with a shoulder ailment, and one has to wonder if his days as a starter are numbered.

Jo Adell, OF, LAA – Just in case you missed it, Adell is currently rehabbing from ankle and hamstring injuries.  While the injuries are not serious, he still has yet to take batting practice and is unlikely to see live action in the field before June.  The toolsy outfielder is arguably the top prospect for the Halos, as he worked through three different levels in 2018, finishing at Double-A.  An interesting tidbit is that the Angels just gave Mike Trout a massive contract extension, and rightly so.  In other words, Adell is basically never playing centerfield for the Halos, barring unforeseen circumstances.  A corner outfield slot may be his final destination due to his power potential, but the presence of Trout is certainly worth noting when monitoring Adell's development.  That is not to say he won't have a place to play, only that he's technically blocked positionally by the best player in baseball.  It also would appear unlikely the kid sees the big leagues in 2019 due to these injuries.

Mitch Keller, P, PIT – Keller's fall from grace has been a bit stunning.  There did not appear to be many red flags as he made the jump last season to Triple-A, though in hindsight perhaps his control was a bit lackluster at Double-A before being promoted.  He wasn't even prone to the long ball in 10 starts at the higher level, giving up just three home runs over that span.  However, Keller limped to a 4.82 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A action, and the 23-year-old unsurprisingly returned there to begin the 2019 season.  He's been knocked around in two starts this year, allowing 11 hits in 8.2 innings.   Additional base runners have played a crucial role in his early season struggles, as Keller has already walked six batters.  The Pirates have been cautious and deliberate in handling him, and perhaps they know something we don't.  Keller is still well thought of in prospect circles, but no longer flashes that elite upside, and there are plenty of hurlers with more promising futures outside the Pittsburgh organization.