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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Colorado Rockies in the first of a four-game series today in Coloroado at Coors Field. Both teams traveled to Colorado yesterday for this game, as the Rockies just concluded a road trip. The Rockies just salvaged a game against the Chicago White Sox in that series to avoid the sweep and they are just 28-55 this season. That's good for the worst record in the National League and the second-worst record in Major League Baseball behind just the White Sox.
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They have lost seven of their last 10 games and they have an insane -142 run differential already this season. They are much better at home, though, at 16-24 and they are weirdly pretty good against good teams with a 16-24 record against teams with winning records. That means they are 12-31 against teams with losing records this season, so it seems like they either were lucky with the schedule and have had most of their tough series at home, or they play up to their competition when they get the chance. Today they take on the MIlwaukee Brewers, who have gotten off to quite the start this season. They are 50-34 so far but that is after they traded Corbin Burnes in the offseason and lost Brandon Woodruff to injury. They are leading the NL Central by 6.5 games right now and they aren't as good on the road at 23-21 this season. But they are very good against teams with losing records, as they have posted a 30-14 record against teams under .500 this season.
Bryse Wilson is getting the start for the Brewers and he has been very hit or miss this season. He started the season very strong, although he wasn't starting every game or going too deep in games. Now he is either starting or pitching as a bulk reliever behind an opener. He has had two scoreless outings in June with 5.1 innings pitched and six innings pitched. He has also started two games without an opener and allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings pitched, and five runs in 4.2 innings pitched. Both those games were on the road, too, and now he has to start at Coors Field where we know it is extremely difficult to pitch. He is definitely my main concern with this play. Austin Gomber is starting for the Rockies tonight and he got off to an unbelievable start to this season, but he has definitely slowed down lately. He was 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in five June starts and he didn't have a quality start once. He only pitched one of those games at Coors Field, too, so that isn't really an excuse this time. The Brewers are way worse this season against lefties than righties, ranked 21st in the league in wOBA against lefties. However, we also saw them hit Justin Steele pretty well just a few days ago and they have certain key hitters heating up right now like Jackson Chourio.
However, this play is all about the bullpens. That is what I think will make the difference in this game tonight. I mentioned how the Rockies had a 14-inning game yesterday at the White Sox, so the Brewers actually probably got to Colorado yesterday before the Rockies did. But that means the Rockies' bullpen is incredibly worked. They already have the worst bullpen in the league by far with a 5.65 ERA, but now they will also likely be without Jalen Beeks and Nick Mears, who have pitched two days in a row. The Brewers were able to save their whole bullpen yesterday with the blowout of the Cubs so they will have their entire bullpen available and rested. Also, they are ranked fourth in the league in bullpen ERA. My guess is they will either announce an opener for Wilson later today or they will give Wilson a bit of a shorter leash knowing they can use their bullpen as much as they'd like.
BEST BET
Brewers ML -155 vs. Rockies (DraftKings)
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