Farm Futures: Week 1 Takeaways

Realistically, 99 percent of what has happened thus far in the minor-league season doesn't matter at all. You could probably just stop reading this article now, and you'd be fine. If you asked me about two hitters and said, "which guy do you like more?" after a week's worth of games, my answer 99 percent of the time will be, "the guy I had ranked higher before the start of the season."

However, there have been some things that have at least caught my attention without necessarily affecting my rankings, and what follows are my thoughts on those things.

Note: most of the players referenced for normal and deeper leagues are pitchers because A) most full-season hitters who should be rostered are already rostered in those leagues and B) one start for a pitcher means more to me than 15-25 plate appearances for a hitter.

Shallow Leagues (1-100 prospects rostered)

Yordan Alvarez, 1B/OF/DH, Astros

Here we have a comparison of two teammates at Triple-A Round Rock. Obviously Hitter A is Alvarez, and you can probably deduce that Hitter B is Kyle Tucker. THIS IS A TINY SAMPLE SIZE and Tucker is still the better prospect, but if the Astros were to summon one of these hitters from Triple-A this month, I think there's a decent chance it would be Alvarez, not Tucker who would get the call. I've never been a fan of Yuli Gurriel or Tyler White, both of whom have been replacement-level players so far this season. Alvarez has more power than both and has a better hit tool than White. He also has more defensive versatility than White, but neither player is a defensive asset. It's tough to say when the Astros will give Alvarez a shot at establishing himself in the majors, but if he keeps up this torrid start to the season, I'm guessing they will give him a shot sooner than later.

Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers

I obviously love Manning, and he has been as good as I could have hoped through two starts back at Double-A -- he fired seven one-hit innings with 10 strikeouts Wednesday. We might be one or two more dominant outings away from him getting promoted to Triple-A, and from there, anything is possible. It's not quite stashing season in mixed leagues, but it's definitely Matt Manning season.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves

If Soroka was dropped in almost any format, go grab him. He threw five perfect innings over the weekend while striking out seven for Triple-A Gwinnett. He's a better pitcher than Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, and one way or another I expect him to grab a rotation spot in late April or early May, assuming his shoulder doesn't start barking again. I really like Max Fried too -- I don't think he's going anywhere. These things typically work themselves out. 

Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers

Cameron is hitting .300/.400/.550 with a home run, a steal and a manageable 20.0 percent K-rate in 25 PA for Triple-A Toledo. He is easily the Tigers' best defensive option in center field, and as soon as they think his bat is ready, he will be up. I was stashing Cameron to open the year in an 18-team mixed league, and he should have already been rostered in AL-only leagues, but the more he hits, the more he moves into 15-team mixed league stashing territory. This is a roto play for the steals -- he isn't that appealing in points leagues.

Nolan Gorman, 3B, Cardinals

Gorman has been better in a return trip to Low-A than I would have expected, hitting .458 with a pair of home runs in 29 PA. Most importantly, he has a 10.3 percent BB-rate and 24.1 percent K-rate. It's still very, very early, but if he were to maintain those walk and strikeout rates, he will be in for a massive year. His homer binge to start his career (19 HR in 69 games) is almost unprecedented for a player his age. At worst, I think he'll be a Joey Gallo type, but as I said in his preseason outlook, there is Josh Donaldson upside if he maxes out.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

Rodriguez is my first big riser of the season, not necessarily because of what he has done on the field, but because of where he was assigned. He only played in the Dominican Summer League last year, and those players typically advance to the Gulf Coast League or AZL in their second year. The fact that Seattle assigned him to Low-A just after his 18th birthday is actionable, and so far he has been up to the challenge, hitting .478 with a 3:3 K:BB in 26 PA. He deserves those double green up arrows. Long term, he could develop into an Eloy Jimenez type of prospect.

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

When Robert received a $26 million bonus in late May of 2017, I wrote that he was probably a couple years away from the majors, and I was low on him, relative to the majority of other prospect analysts. Injuries have played a major role in limiting his development, but the point is, if you had told someone that Robert opened the 2019 season at High-A, they would think something had gone seriously wrong. This is a long way of saying, I don't really care at all what he does in a return trip to High-A. If he rakes at Double-A this summer and demonstrates solid bat-to-ball ability and patience (neither of which he is currently demonstrating at High-A), then he will move up my rankings, but not before then.

Normal Leagues (100-300 prospects rostered)

Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees

You probably either heeded my rankings and rostered Schmidt before the season or you ignored my rankings because Schmidt was a relatively unproven pitching prospect. Well, he got assigned to High-A, skipping Low-A altogether, and completely shoved in his first start of the season. He has No. 2 starter upside and should get to Double-A before the All-Star break.

Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Twins

This 6-foot-4 righty has what we want in a pitching prospect at Low-A: upside and upward momentum. He has a mid-90s fastball that is a monster pitch thanks to the extension his long levers provide, and he has a couple promising secondary offerings. He fanned nine in five scoreless innings in his first start back at Low-A and should get a promotion to High-A in the coming weeks.

Zac Gallen, RHP, Marlins

I'd been off Gallen for a while, but there were reports this spring that he was touching 97 mph with his heater, which completely changes the equation (he used to have a fringe-average fastball). He has excellent control and a cutter that should be a swing-and-miss offering in the big leagues. I don't want to get too carried away with him, but we know he'll be up in the majors sooner than later, and there's a chance this is a legitimate breakout season for the 23-year-old righty.

Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners

Gilbert, the 14th overall pick in 2018, did not pitch after signing but has been lights out through two starts (five baserunners, zero runs, 14 strikeouts in nine innings). His fastball hasn't quite returned to his 2017 levels, when it was parked in the mid-90s:

He will probably need to regain that velocity, or really improve his changeup, to realistically profile as more than a mid-rotation starter. His stock is creeping up, just due to the fact he's pitching and has been effective, but we need his stuff to improve to get really excited.

Chris Seise, SS, Rangers

Seise, a first-round pick in 2017, was out of sight and out of mind last season while recovering from shoulder surgery, but he has been on fire in his full-season debut. His .429/.500/.714 slash line tells us very little (his 25.0 percent K-rate isn't great) in just a 24-PA sample, but what caught my attention is the fact that he has attempted five steals in just five games. He isn't a burner (a 55-grade runner right now, unless his speed has ticked up this past offseason), but he has great instincts and is a good athlete, so he could be a 15-to-20 steal guy in the majors, which wasn't something I was counting on.

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox

Duran has 70-grade speed and has improved his line-drive rate at every stop so far in his brief pro career. He is a 22-year-old at High-A, so there is no room for failure, but if he keeps putting the ball in play at an elite clip (9.5 percent K-rate), his wheels will allow him to hit for very high batting averages. He needs to do some damage, so continuing to lift the ball will be crucial for Duran to be an everyday center fielder.

Deep Leagues (300+ prospects rostered)

Michael Grove, RHP, Dodgers

Grove, a second-round pick in last year's draft, did not pitch at all last season while recovering from 2017 Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers elected to send the 22-year-old righty to the California League. The last time I was so excited about the assignment of a prospect was when Wander Franco was sent directly to the Appalachian League last year. Players almost never make their pro debuts at High-A. Casey Mize would have been sent to High-A if he did not debut until this year, so circumstances play a part in that, but it was nonetheless an extreme vote of confidence for Grove. He fanned four in three shutout innings in his debut. A great athlete at 6-foot-3, Grove possesses a plus fastball and plus slider -- both of those pitches could be 70-grade offerings soon. If he develops a decent changeup, he will be at least a mid-rotation starter. 

Jean Carlos Mejia, RHP, Indians

Mejia was a late bloomer, working as a reliever in short-season ball for four years before entering the rotation at Low-A last year. It appears he was well worth the wait. The Indians added the 6-foot-4 righty to the 40-man roster this offseason after his breakout campaign. He has a mid-90s fastball and an excellent four-pitch mix, with a couple breaking balls that could develop into plus pitches -- not unlike org. mate Luis Oviedo. He struck out eight in five perfect innings in his 2019 debut, and should get the bump to Double-A in the coming weeks.