This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Following a slew of trades involving notable prospects and an ensuing flurry of call-ups as teams prepare for the stretch run, there has been a noticeable shift in where the top talent in the minor leagues is most prevalent. Before the season the Cubs had the best farm system in baseball, followed by perhaps the Twins or the Astros. Even with Byron Buxton back at Triple-A, the case can be made that none of those three teams rank as a top-five farm systems anymore after a bevy of call-ups and prospects like Alex Meyer and Carl Edwards seeing their stock plummet over the course of the season. Fortunately for the Cubs and Astros, their farm systems' losses were their big-league clubs' gain, as both teams would make the playoffs as things currently stand.
After ranking the top-10 farm systems based on players still in the minor leagues who still have their rookie eligibility (players like Javier Baez and Dilson Herrera do not qualify), it is clear that there are two camps. The first consists of teams like the Astros and Cubs prior to the start of the season, where they are on the upswing and their farm systems could lead to them starting to contend as early as 2016. The other camp consists of model organizations with World Series hopes in 2015 and enough talent still on the farm to improve their team via September call-ups and the pieces to remain competitive for many years to come. Here, in descending
Following a slew of trades involving notable prospects and an ensuing flurry of call-ups as teams prepare for the stretch run, there has been a noticeable shift in where the top talent in the minor leagues is most prevalent. Before the season the Cubs had the best farm system in baseball, followed by perhaps the Twins or the Astros. Even with Byron Buxton back at Triple-A, the case can be made that none of those three teams rank as a top-five farm systems anymore after a bevy of call-ups and prospects like Alex Meyer and Carl Edwards seeing their stock plummet over the course of the season. Fortunately for the Cubs and Astros, their farm systems' losses were their big-league clubs' gain, as both teams would make the playoffs as things currently stand.
After ranking the top-10 farm systems based on players still in the minor leagues who still have their rookie eligibility (players like Javier Baez and Dilson Herrera do not qualify), it is clear that there are two camps. The first consists of teams like the Astros and Cubs prior to the start of the season, where they are on the upswing and their farm systems could lead to them starting to contend as early as 2016. The other camp consists of model organizations with World Series hopes in 2015 and enough talent still on the farm to improve their team via September call-ups and the pieces to remain competitive for many years to come. Here, in descending order, are the top-10 farm systems in baseball for dynasty league purposes only:
Just Missed:
Tampa Bay Rays
Top Prospect: Blake Snell, LHP, 22
Prospects in Top-200: 10
Pittsburgh Pirates
Top Prospect: Tyler Glasnow, RHP, 21
Prospects in Top-200: 6
Cleveland Indians
Top Prospect: Bradley Zimmer, OF, 22
Prospects in Top-200: 8
Oakland A's
Top Prospect: Sean Manaea, LHP, 23
Prospects in Top-200: 7
Milwaukee Brewers
Top Prospect: Brett Phillips, OF, 21
Prospects in Top-200: 9
10. Minnesota Twins
Top 10 Prospects
Byron Buxton, OF, 21
Jose Berrios, RHP, 21
Jorge Polanco, SS, 22
Nick Gordon, SS, 19
Kohl Stewart, RHP, 20
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, 21
Max Kepler, OF, 22
Lewis Thorpe, LHP, 19
Adam Walker, OF, 23
Tyler Jay, LHP, 21
While Buxton was not ranked in the last iteration of the top-200 prospect ranks because he was on the major league roster at the time, he would currently rank as the top fantasy prospect in the minors, ahead of Corey Seager. Berrios is also a top-10 prospect, and that strength at the top of the system is why the Twins managed to rank as a top-10 farm system. In addition to the high-probability pieces at the top, Gordon, Stewart, Kepler, Thorpe and Walker all have major upside, so if just one or two of those players pan out the Twins will have supplied dynasty league owners with a few big-time talents.
9. Chicago Cubs
Billy McKinney, OF, 20
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, 22
Gleyber Torres, SS, 18
Ian Happ, OF, 20
Mark Zagunis, OF, 22
Duane Underwood, RHP, 21
Pierce Johnson, RHP, 24
Carson Sands, LHP, 20
Albert Almora, OF, 21
Justin Steele, LHP, 20
The Cubs not only still have 10 players ranked in the Top-200 after all of their graduations this season, but seven of those 10 are ranked in the top-100. Indeed, perhaps no organization is in a better position to remain competitive over the next decade than the Cubs thanks to a seemingly never-ending stream of talent moving up the organizational ladder. Things will certainly get interesting on the position player side of things, as McKinney, Vogelbach, Torres, Happ, Zagunis and Almora are all pretty convincingly blocked at the big league level, and that doesn't even factor Starlin Castro, Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara into the picture. It's possible that half the position players in the top-10 will be traded by this time next season, because while depth is awesome, there is a point where hoarding excess young talent becomes counterproductive. The arms should all fit in pretty seamlessly in time, but only Johnson is close enough to contribute in 2016.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
J.P. Crawford, SS, 20
Nick Williams, OF, 21
Jake Thompson, RHP, 21
Jorge Alfaro, C, 22
Roman Quinn, OF, 22
Franklyn Kilome, RHP, 20
Cornelius Randolph, OF, 18
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, 22
Kelly Dugan, OF, 24
Ricardo Pinto, RHP, 21
The Phillies ate a lot of money in the Cole Hamels trade, but they accomplished the primary goal, which was acquiring a minor league package of both quality and quantity. Williams and Alfaro carry a bit more risk than your average top-50 hitting prospects, but they both offer intense upside, specifically for fantasy purposes. Thompson comes with the typical risk of a pitching prospect in the upper levels and he profiles as a solid No. 3 starter in time. Kilome has the most upside of any pitcher in the system, but he is still at short season ball. Crawford, Williams, Thompson and Quinn should all be expected to make an impact at the big league level next season, which will make the Phillies surprisingly watchable in 2016 thanks to an exciting young core.
7. Boston Red Sox
Yoan Moncada, 2B, 20
Rafael Devers, 3B, 18
Manuel Margot, OF, 20
Javier Guerra, SS, 19
Michael Kopech, RHP, 19
Andrew Benintendi, OF, 21
Brian Johnson, LHP, 24
Wendell Rijo, 2B, 19
Nick Longhi, OF, 19
Sam Travis, 1B, 21
This system is truly top-heavy, as there is a pretty big drop-off after Margot and again after Kopech. Moncada, Devers and Margot should be owned in all dynasty leagues, and all three could contend for spots inside the overall top-10 heading into 2016. The one knock on those three hitters is that it does not appear likely that any will make the big leagues until 2017, when I expect to see Margot and Moncada make their debuts. A player who might be even further away, Guerra, is having a breakthrough season at Low-A, and while he was ranked as a top-100 prospect in my latest rankings, the case could be made that he should be 50 spots higher. Had Kopech not been suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs he would have also easily been ranked as a top-100 prospect on the latest rankings.
6. Houston Astros
Vincent Velasquez, RHP,
A.J. Reed, 1B, 22
Derek Fisher, OF, 21
J.D. Davis, 3B, 22
Mark Appel, RHP, 24
Daz Cameron, OF, 18
Alex Bregman, SS, 21
Kyle Tucker, OF, 18
Tony Kemp, 2B, 23
Colin Moran, 3B, 22
I still prefer Velasquez to Lance McCullers long term, which essentially means I view Velasquez as at least a No. 3 with the realistic possibility that he becomes a legit No. 2 starter in a few years. It's hard to say how real the numbers are that Reed, Fisher and Davis have produced this season since a lot of the damage has come at High-A Lancaster, which is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. That said, it's possible that all three will someday hit in the middle of the Astros' lineup, profiling as better players in fantasy than in real life thanks to their bat-first profiles. A very strong draft helped make up for the graduations of McCullers, Carlos Correa and Preston Tucker. Houston is the AL version of the Cubs, with a realistic chance of competing for the next decade thanks to an impressive collection of home-grown talent.
5. Washington Nationals
Lucas Giolito, RHP, 21
Trea Turner, SS, 22
Wilmer Difo, SS/2B, 23
Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 21
Victor Robles, OF, 18
Erick Fedde, RHP, 22
A.J. Cole, RHP, 23
Austin Voth, RHP, 23
Andrew Stevenson, OF, 21
Drew Ward, 3B, 20
Few systems can match the Nationals' top-six prospects in terms of pure fantasy upside. Giolito has more upside than any pitcher in the minor leagues, as he could one day be the top starting pitcher in the game. He figures to get a taste of the majors in a relief role this postseason and should enter the Nationals' starting rotation sooner than later next season. Turner and Difo figure to be the Nationals' starting shortstop and second baseman, respectively, next season and both players should hit for a high average while offering solid stolen-base totals. Lopez may get a chance to pitch out of the big league bullpen this fall, where he should sit in triple digits, and he should slot into the middle of the Nationals' rotation in 2017. Robles, 18, was the top riser on the latest top-200, and has a very similar skill set to Raimel Tapia and Manuel Margot. Fedde appears to be another post-Tommy John surgery success story for the Nationals, as they stole him with the 18th pick in 2014 and he currently has a 2.57 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 35 innings at short season ball. They should take the training wheels off next season, giving Fedde the chance to climb all the way to Double-A.
4. Texas Rangers
Nomar Mazara, OF, 20
Joey Gallo, 3B, 21
Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, 23
Luis Ortiz, RHP, 19
Lewis Brinson, OF, 21
Ryan Cordell, OF, 23
Dillon Tate, RHP, 21
Ariel Jurado, RHP, 19
Ronald Guzman, OF, 20
Michael Matuella, RHP, 21
It may come as a surprise that the Rangers system still ranks ahead of the Phillies after they traded three of their top-six prospects in the Cole Hamels deal, but they were able to keep Mazara and Gallo, most notably, as well as Gonzalez, Ortiz and Brinson, all of whom are easy top-100 prospects. With Mazara and Gallo at the top, it can certainly be described as a top-heavy system, but there are also a ton of high-upside pieces after the big sluggers at the top. In addition to the players ranked in the top-10, outfielder Leodys Taveras was one of the top-five J-2 signings for fantasy purposes, although at 16 years old he will require extreme patience.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Corey Seager, SS, 21
Julio Urias, LHP, 18
Jose De Leon, RHP, 23
Grant Holmes, RHP, 19
Yadier Alvarez, RHP, 19
Austin Barnes, C, 25
Zach Lee, RHP, 23
Darnell Sweeney, 2B/OF, 24
Cody Bellinger, 1B, 20
Alex Verdugo, OF, 19
On the one hand it is difficult to rank a pitching-heavy system this high, but this is a very special group of arms. Urias, De Leon, Holmes and Alvarez all have the potential to be frontline starters, and should any of them fail to make it as a starter, they all have the stuff to be shutdown relievers. After Alvarez it is difficult to find a prospect in the system with a strong chance of being an above average regular, but that is not an issue unique to the Dodgers' system. Seager is the No. 2 prospect in the minor leagues, behind only Byron Buxton, and like Joc Pederson this season, he has a good chance of being on the Dodgers' Opening Day roster in 2016. Jose Peraza would have slotted in at No. 4 on this list had he not been recently promoted to the big leagues, and he figures to be the Dodgers' designated pinch runner this postseason and the long-term answer at second base.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Robert Stephenson
Jesse Winker
Phillip Ervin
Alex Blandino
Keury Mella
Amir Garrett
Brandon Finnegan
John Lamb
Tyler Stephenson
Cody Reed
For those who prefer deep systems to top-heavy ones, the Reds offer up perhaps more depth than any system in baseball. In Winker, Ervin and Blandino the Reds have three position players with the combination of upside and proximity, as Winker and Blandino will likely debut next season, with Ervin not far behind. In addition to the six arms listed here, Nick Travieso and Sal Romano have the potential to crack this list next season as potential mid-rotation arms. While it is possible that a few of the hurlers could end up in the bullpen, they all have No. 3 or better upside so the system still rates very highly. The Mella/Mike Leake trade with San Francisco was widely praised from the Giants' perspective, but I was shocked that the Reds were able to get an arm like Mella back for a low-upside rental like Leake. In fact, the Mella trade was my favorite haul for a seller from the entire crop of deadline deals. While Winker and Blandino might offer single-season value next year, Stephenson and Finnegan almost surely will, as both will get a fair shake at proving they belong in the rotation and not the bullpen. That said, if one of them is designated as a reliever, they could end up closing for the Reds in 2016 as Aroldis Chapman will probably be traded this winter.
1. Colorado Rockies
Raimel Tapia, OF, 21
David Dahl, OF, 21
Ryan McMahon, 3B, 20
Brendan Rodgers, SS, 19
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, 22
Forrest Wall, 2B, 19
Trevor Story, SS, 22
Tom Murphy, C, 24
Kyle Freeland, LHP, 22
Tyler Anderson, LHP, 25
This may come as a surprise for the top system in baseball, but remember, this is for fantasy purposes only, and the best way to build a dynasty league roster is by loading up on young, high-upside position players, and the Rockies have those in spades. Need an outfielder? The Rockies have a pair of top-10 outfield prospects in Tapia and Dahl. Need a middle infielder? Story may be the Opening Day shortstop in 2016 and will play half his games at Coors Field. Wall is the fourth best second base prospect in the game and Rodgers is the 11th best shortstop prospect, and yes, they too will get to play half their games at Coors Field. To round things out, McMahon is the third best third base prospect and Murphy is the sixth best catching prospect, so there is a little something here for everyone. Hoffman will be another test case for a starting pitching prospect with electric stuff but the misfortune of having to pitch in Colorado, but even if he does not make it as a rare success story, the hitters in this system and the hitting-friendly confines awaiting them in the big leagues are enough for this to be the most fantasy-friendly system in baseball.
