Kyle Freeland

In Kyle Freeland's peak 2018 season, he posted a 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20.5% K%, and 8.3% BB% in 202.1 innings. Unfortunately, Freeland dealt with shoulder, hamstring, finger, foot, and hip issues in 2021. Freeland fared decently in 2021 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 20.4% K%, and 7.4% BB% in 120.2 innings. In Freeland's best seasons (2018 and 2021), the LOB% ended at 82.8% and 78.9%, so the ERA could regress in 2022. Freeland's slider boasted the highest SwStr% of his career at 18.3% versus a career rate of 13.3%. On Baseball Savant, they have Freeland's slider as a curve, and it's his best pitch with a .214 wOBA. Freeland lowered the four-seam usage the past two seasons from 35.5% to 23.5%. That led to a .423 SLG and .328 wOBA the past two seasons with near-identical results of .424 SLG and .327 wOBA (2017-2019). Overall, Freeland is a streamer with limited upside.

Freeland had a career-worst 6.73 ERA in 2019, but his ERA indicators suggested that he may have been relatively unlucky. He got rid of the cutter and introduced a curveball in 2020 while improving to a 4.33 ERA. In addition, his 4.55 xFIP and 4.95 SIERA were similar to his marks from earlier in his career. While 2019's struggles may have been an anomaly, his 15.1 K% during the abbreviated 2020 season ranked second-worst among qualified starters and hindered his fantasy value. The southpaw struggled to limit hard contact in 2019, but he settled down in 2020 with a 5.6% barrel rate and a 51.5 GB% that was sixth-best among qualified starters. Pitchers at Coors Field carry warning labels, but Freeland bounced back over a smaller sample in 2020. He was one of the best at forcing groundballs last season despite his struggles to force strikeouts, and his fantasy outlook is slightly more promising in 2021.

While 2017 and 2018 were seasons testing the theory that you should not draft pitchers in Colorado, 2019 was a harsh reminder that theory has many fans for a reason. Hitters made a lot of loud contact off Freeland, but he had moments where things worked. He had three starts in which he went six or more innings with one or zero earned runs. He also had four starts in which he allowed seven or more earned runs. He is a matchup play right now, as he was crushed at home last year (9.82 ERA), but historically, his home and road ERAs are not even half a run apart. He needs a change in approach against righties as a lineup loaded with righties will give Freeland a lot of trouble. The fastball/cutter life works on the road against lineups with a heavy-lefty presence, but he is otherwise a risky roster asset. This has future long reliever written all over it unless his changeup improves.

Among the bigger surprises in fantasy baseball last year, Freeland went on an extended run in which he seemingly threw six innings and picked up a win every time out. The peripheral numbers and ERA estimators don't paint as rosy a picture (12.2 K-BB%, 3.67 FIP), but keep in mind that he has beaten the publicly-available estimators at literally every single stop since he was drafted with the eighth overall pick in the 2014 first-year player draft. His familiarly with the Denver air -- he grew up there -- seems to help his cause. That may seem like a bunk narrative, but Freeland has posted better numbers at Coors Field than on the road in each of his two seasons. We like German Marquez's chances of sustaining his success more, but Freeland has good command and plenty of job security. Don't write off what he did in 2018 as a total fluke.

Freeland managed to leverage a strong spring training performance into a major-league rotation spot and the results were generally encouraging. In 28 starts and five relief appearances -- the Rockies wanted to limit his workload -- the young southpaw posted a 4.10 ERA and 1.49 ERA. He faded a lot in the second half of the season, as his ERA and WHIP sat at the more respectable levels of 3.77 and 1.40 at the All-Star break. He's just 24 years old, so there's definitely potential for improvement in the coming years. From a fantasy perspective, his K:BB leaves a lot to be desired, but his groundball-heavy approach bodes well as he pitches in Colorado. Freeland appears to have the inside track to the final rotation spot heading into spring training.

Freeland has not quite lived up to expectations as a first-round pick in 2014, but he still may end up being a serviceable big-league hurler. The lefty is a groundball pitcher, which is particularly important since he will play his future home games in the thin air of Colorado. His control is also above-average, and he got stronger in that department as the season progressed; Freeland walked just 19 batters in 73.2 innings at Triple-A to finish the season. The limiting factor is his lack of strikeouts. Freeland managed just 108 strikeouts in 162 combined innings in 2016, and his strikeout rate was no better the season before at High-A. He may be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot in spring training, but Freeland will likely end up back at Triple-A to begin the campaign with the chance to appear in the big leagues as a reliever later in the season.

Freeland may have been out of sight and out of the minds of many for most of 2015, but there are reasons not to forget about the No. 8 pick in the 2014 draft. He has been sidelined for much of his professional career, first with shoulder fatigue, then following a procedure to remove bone chips in his elbow. However, he returned to the mound in late July, first for two starts at rookie ball, and then finishing with seven starts for High-A Modesto. A 4.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 28:10 K:BB over 46.2 innings across both stops probably won’t excite dynasty league owners, and the lack of strikeouts are particularly concerning, but he gets a bit of pass considering it was his first game action in almost a year. Good size and athleticism should aid him in the upper levels, and if his stuff returns to where it was two years ago, Freeland could still reach his potential as a No. 3 starter.

Following a dazzling junior year at the University of Evansville, Freeland was selected eighth overall by the Rockies in the 2014 first-year player draft. The Rockies made quick work in signing the left-hander, who debuted with their rookie club in July before finishing the season with five starts at Low-A Asheville, where he gave up just two runs and struck out 18 batters over 21.2 innings. The Rockies intentionally capped his pitch counts due to the high number of innings he had thrown for Evansville in the spring, but he’ll be on tap for a full workload in 2015, perhaps opening the season a level up in the California League. The 21-year-old doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but does an excellent job of painting the strike zone with his low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and an improving changeup. His early success has been encouraging and could allow him to rise through the Rockies’ system quickly, but he’ll first need to prove himself against the competition in the upper minors before receiving a big-league shot.