This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The last weekend of (calendar) summer begins Friday. We are oh-so close to fall, which really means the MLB playoffs are near. Also, I should probably start thinking about fantasy hockey. For now, though, there are 12 MLB games on the DFS docket Friday. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are my MLB DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Joe Musgrove, SD vs. CWS ($9,100): Genuinely, Musgrove has allowed zero earned runs in every-other start of his last eight starts. Granted, that would mean he's up to allow some runs Friday but maybe not in this matchup. Which a smidge of an uptick in offense recently means the White Sox will likely eke over 500 runs scored on the season. Of course, every other team is presumably going to be over 600, so this offense is still horrendous.
Jacob deGrom, TEX vs. SEA ($8,100): The only question is how long deGrom, fresh from his latest lengthy injury, stays in the game. Ideally he goes five innings and qualifies for a win, because in that time he should do quite well. The Mariners are in the bottom five in runs scored but last in strikeouts. While deGrom pitching four great innings may not be ideal, that could still benefit you from a DFS perspective, which raises his floor.
Ben Lively, CLE at STL ($7,200): Lively was able to rebound quickly from taking a comebacker off his thigh in his prior start, going 5.0 innings and allowing zero runs in his last outing. Yes, that was against the woeful Rays offense, but the Cardinals are in the bottom 10 in runs scored themselves. While Lively has had an issue allowing homers, St. Louis is one of nine teams that has not gotten to 160 home runs on the season yet.
Top Targets
As per usual, Juan Soto ($6,400) has an OBP over .400, but this season he's hit 40 home runs for the first time. The southpaw has posted an 1.012 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, and he also has an 1.033 OPS on the road. While Oakland's park is pitching friendly, J.T. Ginn has a 4.94 ERA, and lefties have hit a whopping .365 against him. I think Soto can knock it out of the park, even in Oakland, or at least rack up a double or two. Soto did get banged up Thursday, so if it turns out he can't play, Jasson Dominguez ($3,400) is a lefty outfielder who can do a poor man's version of Soto for you in a pinch.
Catchers who can hit 27 homers are rare, but catchers who tally more than 100 RBI are even rarer. Salvador Perez ($4,500) is such a player. Mason Black has made seven MLB appearances. He has allowed a home run in each and every one of them. Also, righties have hit .339 against him, and Perez is such a righty.
Bargain Bats
Here we go! Over the last three weeks, Wyatt Langford ($4,400) has a .986 OPS. It took him a bit to live up to the "top hitting prospect" hype, but he has managed 12 homers, four triples and 15 stolen bases in 125 games. Emerson Hancock was once a top pitching prospect, but that hasn't panned out because he's been brutal on the road. He has a career 7.97 road ERA, and his fellow righties have hit .276 against him.
Imagine how many bases Andres Gimenez ($4,200) could steal if he would just take a walk every now and again! He has 30 stolen bases even with a .301 OBP. The lefty tops out at doubles power, but that's fine, because about the only thing Kyle Gibson does well is prevent homers. He still has a 4.78 ERA at home, and since 2022 lefties have hit .272 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Rockies (Kyle Freeland): Mookie Betts ($6,200), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900), Tommy Pham ($3,400)
Hey, give Freeland credit for sagging. For the second year in a row he is going to finish with a higher ERA on the road than at Coors Field. This season he has a 5.98 ERA in away starts. The southpaw has allowed righties to hit .289 against him since 2022, so I have three Dodgers who can hit right-handed.
Unfortunately, injuries really cut into Betts' numbers, but he's hit .294 and he's tallied 17 homers and 15 stolen bases in only 107 games. Over the last three seasons he has a .983 OPS versus southpaws and a .961 OPS at home. This has been a fine bounce-back campaign for Hernandez, who has 29 homers and 11 stolen bases. Getting away from Seattle's park has helped a ton, as he has an .873 OPS at home, hitting 18 home runs at Dodger Stadium. Pham has been a nice addition to the Dodgers, as he has a .924 OPS over the last three weeks. While he's a switch hitter, since 2022 he has an .815 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Atlanta at Miami (Valente Bellozo): Marcell Ozuna ($5,300), Matt Olson ($5,200), Michael Harris ($4,200)
Bellozo was called up not because he earned a promotion but because the Marlins lacked for options. He posted a 4.67 ERA at Triple-A, and while he has a 3.70 ERA in 11 MLB starts, he has a 5.58 FIP. Bellozo has only struck out 6.02 batters per nine innings and allowed 1.85 homers per nine as well. While righties have hit the Marlin rookie slightly better, the sample size is not robust, so I have two lefties in this stack.
Ozuna is a righty but well worth having given that he has 38 homers, 31 doubles and 101 RBI. Also, he's hit .306 in a season where hitting .300 is not the norm. Ozuna has slugged .573 against his fellow right-handers, so this matchup is still good. Even in a down campaign, Olson still has 28 homers and 37 doubles. Over the last three weeks he has a.952 OPS as well. Injuries have hindered Harris, but he has 15 home runs and nine stolen bases in 101 games. Since 2022 he has an .808 OPS versus righties, so now that he's healthy maybe he will look more like his old self.
