This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
We continue the MiLB awards this week with the most impressive and most disappointing pitching prospects in each full-season league. For the short-season leagues, I only recognized the most impressive pitchers, as it's just way too early in the developmental stages to be getting too worked up over poor performances.
Last week the best and worst from the hitting side were recognized.
I did not consider guys like Tyler Glasnow or Luke Weaver, both of whom have exhausted their prospect eligibility. I also did not consider pitchers like Luis Castillo, whose 2017 season will be remembered for what he did in the majors, not what he accomplished in the minors.
International League
Most Impressive: Brent Honeywell (Rays)
Honeywell was excellent in his return from a four-game suspension, and should get one more start this weekend for Durham before potentially getting summoned to the big leagues. While it is surely frustrating if you've been stashing Honeywell all season, this is the inherent risk in stashing pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects on teams without gaping holes in the rotation. There are things pitchers can be working on that don't show up in the stats, so while it might look like he has been ready for a couple months, we don't actually know that. Honeywell has thrown 136.2 innings this season after throwing 115.1 in 2016, and given how cautious the Rays tend to be with pitchers, I think a relief role makes more sense than a move to the rotation
We continue the MiLB awards this week with the most impressive and most disappointing pitching prospects in each full-season league. For the short-season leagues, I only recognized the most impressive pitchers, as it's just way too early in the developmental stages to be getting too worked up over poor performances.
Last week the best and worst from the hitting side were recognized.
I did not consider guys like Tyler Glasnow or Luke Weaver, both of whom have exhausted their prospect eligibility. I also did not consider pitchers like Luis Castillo, whose 2017 season will be remembered for what he did in the majors, not what he accomplished in the minors.
International League
Most Impressive: Brent Honeywell (Rays)
Honeywell was excellent in his return from a four-game suspension, and should get one more start this weekend for Durham before potentially getting summoned to the big leagues. While it is surely frustrating if you've been stashing Honeywell all season, this is the inherent risk in stashing pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects on teams without gaping holes in the rotation. There are things pitchers can be working on that don't show up in the stats, so while it might look like he has been ready for a couple months, we don't actually know that. Honeywell has thrown 136.2 innings this season after throwing 115.1 in 2016, and given how cautious the Rays tend to be with pitchers, I think a relief role makes more sense than a move to the rotation if he does get a promotion later this month. He should spend the majority of 2018 in the big-league rotation.
Biggest Disappointment: Carson Fulmer (White Sox)
Fulmer has been working out of the bullpen since his September callup, and it's easy to see why. He was absolutely terrible by any measure as a starter at Triple-A this year, walking too many hitters, serving up too many home runs and not missing enough bats. A relief role might legitimately be the best avenue to fantasy relevance for Fulmer in 2018. He could still be a high-end setup man or middling closer, despite his struggles as a starter.
Pacific Coast League
Most Impressive: Rogelio Armenteros (Astros)
The acquisition of Justin Verlander and return of Lance McCullers all but eliminates any hope Armenteros had of getting starts in the majors this season, but he's put himself on the map for that kind of opportunity in 2018. Signed in 2014, the Cuban righty has a back-end-starter's repertoire, so perhaps the Astros will look to trade him or simply keep him on hand as an emergency starter. However, his 2.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 72:19 K:BB in 58.1 innings in the Pacific Coast League will no doubt generate curiosity in dynasty leagues this offseason.
Biggest Disappointment: Josh Staumont (Royals)
Well, Staumont played with the imagination of dynasty-league owners at the end of last season, stringing together a handful of starts where his control was merely mediocre, and not downright terrible. The real Staumont appeared again in 2017, however. He walked batters at an outrageous 17.7 percent clip in 76 innings in the Pacific Coast League before being mercifully demoted to Double-A. His stuff is so filthy (two plus-plus offerings) that we will start paying attention again if he starts showing better control, but for now it's hard not to view him as a future setup man.
Eastern League
Most Impressive: Mitch Keller (Pirates)
Keller has been a top 100 prospect for a while now, but figures to move up the next time I do a full-scale update, as he is striking out batters at a career-best 31.7 percent clip since his promotion to Double-A. I'm not sure whether he was working on utilizing a specific pitch while at High-A and generated fewer punchouts as a result, or if his stuff just ticked up later in the year, but this is clearly the best he's pitched as a pro. The Pirates are a tough organization to rely upon for aggressive prospect promotions, and they have a slew of Triple-A pitchers who deserve a look at some point, so it's hard to say when Keller will make his big-league debut. Honeywell serves as a reminder of how risky it is to stash guys like Keller in single-season leagues, but I'm sure there will still be some owners in 2018 that snatch up Keller based on the inevitable hype train that will follow his appearance in the Arizona Fall League.
Biggest Disappointment: Sean Reid-Foley (Blue Jays)
Reid-Foley just turned 22, so I want to caution against writing him off, as he has the pitch mix to survive in the middle of a big-league rotation. However, the command isn't currently there for him to realize that potential, so he may be tried as a reliever at some point in 2018 or 2019 if he doesn't make strides in that department. Another troubling aspect of his 2017 season is that he induced significantly fewer groundballs (40.4 percent rate) than in previous seasons, which resulted in him surrendering a career-worst 1.49 HR/9. There are a lot of areas that need improvement.
Southern League
Most Impressive: Michael Kopech (White Sox)
The Southern League is stacked with quality pitching prospects and Kopech has moved on to the International League; still, he needed to be recognized somewhere in this piece. He got better as the year went on, and while he still walks too many guys, his stuff is so electric that he should be able to survive in a big-league rotation. I expect his command/control to continue to improve each year, which could allow him to eventually develop into a true No. 1 starter. It will be fascinating to see how he is valued in single-season leagues next year, as he could join the MLB rotation at any point from mid-April to mid-July, and success is not guaranteed when he does make the jump. Given the White Sox's track record with pitching prospects, he should be up sooner than later.
Biggest Disappointment: Trevor Clifton (Cubs)
The Cubs seem to always have a pitching prospect at High-A or Double-A who briefly sucks me in before I quickly realize my folly, and Clifton was the latest chimera. There is not a more desirable situation for a pitching prospect to come up in, as the club lacks starting pitching depth, is capable of fielding an excellent defense and carries the annual promise of run support, but the Cubs can't seem to get a young arm across the finish line. Clifton now looks like just a guy, but maybe Adbert Alzolay, Thomas Hatch or Oscar De La Cruz will turn into something useful. If not, we can always dream on Jose Albertos.
Texas League
Most Impressive: Forrest Whitley (Astros)
Sure, Whitley has only made four appearances in the Texas League, but he's got a 1.84 ERA and a 26:4 K:BB in 14.2 innings over those appearances. He's also the youngest pitcher in the league after Franklin Perez was dealt to the Tigers, and therefore out of the Texas League and into the Eastern League. A.J. Puk obviously deserves some recognition for his year, but he is two and half years older than Whitley and less dominant with worse command/control, which is a wild proclamation, considering Puk has 184 strikeouts in 125 minor-league innings this year. Whitley might be the best pitching prospect in baseball, but it's hard to give him that nod with Kopech and Alex Reyes on the verge of the majors. The thing is, Whitley doesn't appear to be far from the majors anymore either. He joined Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chad Billingsley as the only prep first rounders over the past 20 years to reach Double-A in their first full season, and could join the Astros' rotation before the All-Star break next year.
Biggest Disappointment: Sandy Alcantara (Cardinals)
As a member of the 40-man roster, Alcantara was promoted over Triple-A and into the big-league bullpen with rosters expanding, but that's not to say he had a good year at Double-A. He still throws hard, but his lack of command made it tough for him to put hitters away with the same level of ease he often showcased at Low-A and High-A in 2016. He turns 22 on the day this article posts, so it's far too early to say he won't be able to make the necessary adjustments. However, he had a chance to emerge as one of the game's top pitching prospects this year, but instead his dynasty-league stock took a significant hit.
California League
Most Impressive: Jon Duplantier (Diamondbacks)
While Duplantier just turned 23 and has not yet pitched above High-A, he joined some elite company this year.
#DBacks RHP Jon Duplantier recorded a 1.39 ERA that ranks No. 2 in the minors since 1993. Trails only Justin Verlander's 1.29 in 2005.
— Matt Eddy (@MattEddyBA) September 5, 2017
He lacks young Verlander's smutty arsenal, but still boasts a fastball that can touch 95 mph with quality life, to go with two quality breaking balls and a fringe-average changeup. The 6-foot-4 righty could probably survive with just his three best pitches if he doesn't make strides with the changeup, but it would be nice to see how the arsenal plays against Double-A and Triple-A hitters next season. At worst, he is probably a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but there is a chance for a high-end No. 3 if everything works.
Biggest Disappointment: Anderson Espinoza (Padres)
Through no fault of his own, Espinoza is the guy here, mostly because there weren't any other obvious options. He did not appear at all in the Cal League this year and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. Since the Padres did not decide to go that route until later in the summer, Espinoza will now miss the 2018 season in addition to the 2017 season. He will only be 21 years old when he gets back on the hill in 2019, so this is not a catastrophic setback in his development, but his dynasty-league value still took a hit.
Carolina League
Most Impressive: Triston McKenzie (Indians)
McKenzie trails only Alec Hansen for the minor-league lead with 186 strikeouts in 143 innings -- all in the Carolina League. However, Hansen is almost three years older and logged 72.2 innings at Low-A, so McKenzie has had the more impressive season. The innings might actually be as impressive as the strikeouts, considering McKenzie is 6-foot-5 and at least 25 pounds shy of 200. His stuff doesn't get hyperbolized to the extent of guys like Forrest Whitley, Walker Buehler or MacKenzie Gore, but McKenzie still has a chance at having three plus pitches and plus command, which would result in at least a No. 2 starter. Look for him to be pushed a bit more aggressively in 2018, with a potential big-league debut in the second half.
Biggest Disappointment: Marcos Diplan (Brewers)
I was a little too high on Diplan before the season, but even his biggest detractors couldn't have foreseen a 12.7 percent walk rate in a return trip to the Carolina League. If anything, I thought there were reasons to expect some command gains this year, and that clearly didn't happen. Given his size (6-foot, 160-170 pounds) and this year's step back, it's hard to confidently project him to end up in a rotation long term. He has late-inning upside as a reliever.
Florida State League
Most Impressive: Touki Toussaint (Braves)
This was the toughest league to pick the most impressive pitcher, as there were a few guys, Seranthony Dominguez and Lewis Thorpe being among them, who have been solid but not outstanding. I ended up picking Toussaint, who actually posted a 5.04 ERA in 105.1 innings in the FSL. Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story, as Toussaint had a career-best 26.3 percent strikeout rate while notching his lowest walk rate (9.0 percent) above Rookie ball. He proved he deserved a promotion to Double-A, where he has a 3.18 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. The Braves may have a hard time finding room for him in the Triple-A rotation next year, but he is still on track to get a look in the big leagues at some point, perhaps initially out of the bullpen, a la Josh Hader in Milwaukee this year. Toussaint's floor is as a high-leverage reliever, and he showed this year that he may have what it takes to be an effectively wild, high-strikeout mid-rotation starter.
Biggest Disappointment: Justin Dunn (Mets)
Dunn flashed upside at Boston College and then in a brief run in the New York-Penn League last year, but he struck out only 75 in 95.1 innings this year at High-A and also sported an 11.1 percent walk rate. To make matters worse, he finished the year on the disabled list with an undisclosed injury, so his value has cratered. If he comes to camp healthy in 2018, it wouldn't be surprising to see him impress in a return trip to the Florida State League, but for now he can be cut loose in many formats.
Midwest League
Most Impressive: Michel Baez (Padres)
Save for a couple starts in August, Baez has been borderline unhittable in his first year in pro ball. He has 82 strikeouts and just eight walks in 58.2 innings while holding Midwest League hitters to a .192 batting average. The most remarkable thing about Baez is how advanced his command/control is for a 6-foot-8 starter in his first year in the minors. He has an easy double-plus fastball that might end up being an 80-grade offering, and his secondaries are coming along. It's possible that I will get a little overzealous on my offseason ranking for him, kind of like Yadier Alvarez last year, but he's on the short list of guys in the minors who have No. 1 starter upside to dream on.
Biggest Disappointment: Brady Aiken (Indians)
Aiken just turned 21, but he still walked more batters (101) than he struck out (89) in 132 innings. This was kind of a make or break year for Aiken in terms of proving himself as a legitimate pitching prospect. He has a Mark Appel-esque vibe, and can be cut loose in almost all formats.
South Atlantic League
Most Impressive: Adonis Medina (Phillies)
This is not meant as a slight to Sixto Sanchez, but Medina accomplished more and improved his stock more in the Sally League. The changeup has been his calling card in the minors, but this year he was throwing as hard as ever and showing a plus slider, bringing into focus a future role as at least a mid-rotation starter. He could finish next year in Double-A if he continues to show at least average command/control, which could set him up to spend a good chunk of the 2019 season alongside Sanchez in the big-league rotation.
Biggest Disappointment: Riley Pint (Rockies)
Pint is a good reminder that even Low-A hitters can square up 98 mph gas when that's all they're looking for. His command has been subpar for most of the season, which has limited his ability to get to his quality secondaries. Of the pitchers who I'm labeling as disappointments, Pint probably deserves the most forgiveness this offseason, as he's just a big kid (19 years old) struggling in full-season ball. He has plenty of time to iron out his mechanics and reestablish himself as a high-end pitching prospect.
New York-Penn League
Most Impressive: Tobias Myers (Rays)
Myers was dealt to the Rays straight up for Tim Beckham at the trade deadline. While that may look like a pretty one-sided deal based on what Beckham has provided the O's, Myers has been just as impressive since the trade, it has just flown under the radar based on the fact that he had little name value before the trade and is currently pitching in a short-season league. He is the second youngest pitcher in the league, yet among pitchers with at least 50 innings, he ranks second in K-BB rate (27.5 percent), second in FIP (1.79) and eighth in WHIP (0.98). Despite being a very solid athlete with a low-90s fastball, Myers received a slightly under slot $225,000 bonus after the Orioles selected him in the sixth round of last year's draft. He has a curveball that can generate swings and misses, and is in the process of developing a changeup. His lack of developed secondary offerings and undersized 6-foot frame resulted in him falling in the draft, but it looks like the Orioles got a steal. It remains to be seen whether the Rays were right to pay up for him in the Beckham trade, but if his secondaries come along, he has the fastball and command profile to develop into a mid-rotation starter.
Northwest League
Most Impressive: Cole Ragans (Rangers)
Ragans is walking too many guys (41 in 65 career innings), but big lefties with three quality pitches still typically maneuver short-season leagues with ease. His 34.7 percent strikeout rate leads Northwest League starters by a large margin, so there should be plenty of dynasty-league hype surrounding him this offseason.
Appalachian League
Most Impressive: Maximo Castillo (Blue Jays)
The Blue Jays signed Castillo, a 6-foot-1, 200-pound righty, out of Venezuela in 2015. Other than his statistical profile, that's about all I can tell you about him, as this has very much been his coming out party, and nobody I know has seen him pitch. That said, he is the youngest pitcher in the league and has been one of the best pitchers in the league on a per-start basis. I'd expect him to get some hype this offseason, especially considering Toronto's system is fairly shallow.
Pioneer League
Most Impressive: Hunter Greene (Reds)
This one is cheating a little, as Greene has only logged 4.1 innings (three starts) on the mound. However, there really are no other pitchers in the Pioneer League worth highlighting for dynasty-league purposes. The Reds deployed Greene as a designated hitter initially after drafting him, but he was then transitioned to the hill, which was always the plan. He threw 15 pitches in his first start and 25 pitches in his second start, and 35 pitches in his latest outing, sitting at 99-100 mph with his fastball. Until his secondary pitches can be thrown with confidence, he will be prone to some ugly stat lines, but it's important not to focus on that right now. He's throwing gas, he's healthy, all is good. It will be interesting to see how he does in instructs, but I would expect him to be held back in extended spring training next year, before eventually finishing the year with Low-A Dayton.
Arizona League
Most Impressive: MacKenzie Gore (Padres)
It is rare when this happens for a pitcher, but I would not be surprised if Gore were the first player from the 2017 draft to come off the board in a decent chunk of dynasty-league drafts this offseason. He will have competition from Royce Lewis, Keston Hiura and others, but Gore passed his first taste of pro ball with flying colors and looks like a future top-of-the-rotation starter. I expect him to follow in the footsteps of Whitley and push for a promotion to Double-A by the end of next year. That might seem a bit aggressive, but if he stays healthy, he has all the tools to dominate hitters at Low-A and High-A in his age-19 season. He is an excellent athlete and has a mid-90s fastball with excellent movement and a hammer curveball. This is what it looks like when a pitcher comes along who makes us forget how perilous pitching prospects can be.
Gulf Coast League
Most Impressive: Jairo Solis (Astros)
Signed as part of last year's July 2 class, the 6-foot-2 Venezuelan righty climbed all the way to the Appy League this year, but he spent most of his time stateside in the GCL. Across three stops in rookie ball this year, Solis posted a 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 69:21 K:BB in 61.1 innings. Here's the kicker: he doesn't turn 18 until December. Assuming the stuff is legit, I expect him to be a really trendy name in deeper leagues this offseason.