Hunter Greene

25-Year-Old PitcherSP

Cincinnati Reds

2024 Stats

W-L

9-5

ERA

2.75

WHIP

1.02

169

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Greene didn't earn his first win until May 26 and a hip injury cost him two months during the summer. He struggled to a 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts following his return in August, leaving him with a 4.82 and 1.42 WHIP in 112 innings overall. The much-hyped flamethrowing righty hit 105 mph on the radar gun in his 2023 debut and the slider once again enjoyed a great deal of success (.175 xBA, 39.2 Whiff%) on the heels of the fastball. The ERA estimators paint an encouraging picture, but many of the same problems remain for Greene, namely the fact that the changeup is still a distant third pitch that he uses primarily against lefties to marginal success. Home runs have been a big problem in Great American Ball Park (2.2 HR/9, 20.7% HR/FB at home for his career). He will still be just 24 years old for most of 2024 and the Reds are trending upward as a team, but big-league hitters can catch up to elite velocity when they're sitting on it, and without further development of the changeup Greene will likely continue to battle inconsistency as a member of the Cincinnati rotation. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#84

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 195

DOB 8/6/1999

Drafted 1st Rd 2017

Sharp in final outing of 2024

PCincinnati Reds

September 29, 2024

Greene didn't factor into the decision Sunday against the Cubs, allowing one hit and three walks across four scoreless innings. He struck out three.

ANALYSIS
Greene remained on a pitch count Sunday, throwing 65 pitches in his second start since being activated from the IL on Sept. 22. Despite the limitations, he performed well and fired off his eighth scoreless start of the campaign. The 2024 campaign was a career year for the 24-year-old, as he logged a 2.75 ERA with a 169:57 K:BB across 26 starts (150.1 innings).

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2024 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Hunter Greene generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Hunter Greene generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-17%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-8%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-25%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-14%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.197	818	273	85	138	32	3	26
Since 2022vs Right	.236	821	212	68	173	41	4	29
2024vs Left	.174	300	94	30	44	10	1	6
2024vs Right	.190	311	75	27	52	9	2	6
2023vs Left	.215	244	83	28	45	11	2	9
2023vs Right	.288	253	69	20	66	22	2	10
2022vs Left	.205	274	96	27	49	11	0	11
2022vs Right	.239	257	68	21	55	10	0	13
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-14%

ERA on Road

2024

-39%

ERA on Road

2023

-9%

ERA on Road

2022

-10%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.21	1.24	179.2	9	14	0	11.1	3.6	1.7
Since 2022Away	3.63	1.16	208.1	9	11	0	11.4	3.5	1.0
2024Home	3.38	1.10	80.0	5	4	0	10.9	3.3	1.0
2024Away	2.05	0.92	70.1	4	1	0	9.2	3.6	0.4
2023Home	5.13	1.44	40.1	1	4	0	12.7	4.2	2.7
2023Away	4.65	1.41	71.2	3	3	0	11.9	3.6	0.9
2022Home	4.70	1.28	59.1	3	6	0	10.3	3.6	1.8
2022Away	4.21	1.15	66.1	2	7	0	13.0	3.3	1.6
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Stat Review

How does Hunter Greene compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.96

K/9

10.1

BB/9

3.4

HR/9

0.7

Fastball

97.7 mph

ERA

2.75

WHIP

1.02

BABIP

.248

GB/FB

0.75

Left On Base

77.8%

Exit Velocity

80.3 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.0%

Spin Rate

2292 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

17.4%

Swinging Strike

13.8%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Hunter Greene Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Greene comes with a once-in-a-lifetime fastball, a ton of hype and a lot of promise. As a rookie in 2022, Greene threw 337 pitches at 100-plus mph, the most ever for a starting pitcher in a single season, shattering Noah Syndergaard's previous record of 199 pitches at that velocity. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, however. Greene endured a couple blowups and admitted to bagging his changeup on occasion. As tremendous as the fastball velo is, he will likely need more than the fastball and slider to enjoy sustained success in the rotation at the big-league level. He needs to keep hitters honest and prevent them from sitting dead red on the heater (17 homers against the four-seamer last season). The Reds will give the righty a long leash to make it as a starting pitcher. Expect high highs but also additional growing pains in 2023.

It was a lock that Cincinnati would add Greene to the 40-man roster this offseason, and we even got a report in November that he will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training. With Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and even Tyler Mahle on the trade block, Greene could realistically break camp in the big-league rotation, and at the very least, the bulk of his 2022 innings will come in the majors. Things couldn't have gone any better for Greene in 2021, and his 2019 Tommy John surgery now seems like a distant memory. He logged a 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 139:39 K:BB in 106.1 IP across Double-A and Triple-A. Greene's fastball can sit at 100 mph when he's humming, and his hard slider gives him a second plus pitch. Even though his fastball has elite velocity, it doesn't have elite movement, so he still gives up homers off it in the top half of the zone. However, his fastball's velocity allows for his slider and third-pitch changeup to play up, so it's a valuable pitch on the whole. Greene isn't a perfect pitching prospect, but he has big stuff and is very close to debuting in the majors.

Greene will be a full two years removed from his Tommy John surgery at the projected start of the 2021 regular season. Still, the chances of him pitching in the major leagues in 2021 are incredibly slim given everything that stacks up against him. He is 21 years old with 72.2 innings of professional baseball under his belt. He has a fastball for days which we know can touch 103 mph, but the other pitches need time to develop and he simply needs time to hone his craft after missing the past two seasons of competitive baseball. Even if everything goes smoothly in his return to game action, Greene is unlikely to debut until 2023. The potential for stardom is still there for the 2017 first-round pick, but the opportunity is far off on the horizon and there will likely be more bumps along the way.

Greene and the Reds decided to take the rest-and-rehab route with his torn UCL, and to the surprise of very few, it did not work out. What was lost was essentially eight months of would-be recovery time; Greene was first diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow in early August of 2018 and did not undergo Tommy John surgery until April 9. The second overall pick in 2017 after landing a Sports Illustrated cover with the caption "The Star Baseball Needs," Greene was always seen as a Tommy John risk given his upper-90s velocity out of high school. The procedure obviously slows his development timeline, but Greene is only 20 years old and his future remains bright. Expect the 6-foot-4 righty to push closer to the long end of the typical 12-18 month recovery window from TJS. He should pitch 50 or so innings at the low levels late in the season before building back up in earnest in 2021.

Greene showed flashes of his immense upside last season, but his career is in a bit of a holding pattern due to an elbow injury. After some initial bumps in the road with Low-A Dayton, Greene, the second overall pick in the 2017 first-year player draft, went on to post ace-like numbers over a 10-start stretch (2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59:9 K:BB in 49 innings). The good fortune ran out -- Greene turned in a few abbreviated outings in July before being diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow. Usually, the course of action with that diagnosis is Tommy John surgery, but Greene opted against surgery. It's risky to pass on the procedure. For many players, the alternative routes still end up leading to the same destination and they simply delay the inevitable. Greene started throwing off a mound in December and should be a full participant in spring training if he avoids setbacks, but the potential for TJS before he reaches MLB is still an elephant in the room.

Greene only logged 4.1 innings (three starts) on the mound after receiving the largest bonus ($7.23 million) of any player in the 2017 draft. The Reds deployed him as a designated hitter initially, in part to see how he stacked up against pro pitching and also to get him acclimated while limiting his innings. He was then transitioned to the hill, where he figures to spend the rest of his career. He sat at 99-to-100 mph with his fastball in each of his outings, never throwing more than 35 pitches. At 6-foot-4, 197 pounds, he has a prototypical starter’s frame. Some evaluators believe he is the most athletic prep righty to come along in 20 years. This athleticism leads to plus projections on his command. Until his secondary pitches can be thrown with confidence, he will be prone to some ugly stat lines, but it’s important not to focus on that right now. He’s throwing gas, he’s healthy, all is good. Look for him to be held back in extended spring training, before eventually finishing the year with Low-A Dayton.

More Fantasy News

Tough-luck loser in return

PCincinnati Reds

September 22, 2024

Greene (9-5) took the loss Sunday against the Pirates, allowing one earned run on two hits and one walk while striking out four in three innings.

ANALYSIS
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Activated from injured list

PCincinnati Reds

September 22, 2024

Greene (elbow) was activated from the 15-day injured list ahead of his scheduled start Sunday against the Pirates.

ANALYSIS
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Cleared to return Sunday

PCincinnati Reds

Elbow

September 20, 2024

Greene (elbow) will return from the 15-day injured list to start Sunday versus the Pirates, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

ANALYSIS
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Throws 50-pitch simulated game

PCincinnati Reds

Elbow

September 17, 2024

Greene (elbow) threw 52 pitches over a three-inning simulated game Tuesday at Great American Ball Park, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

ANALYSIS
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Scheduled for live batting practice

PCincinnati Reds

Elbow

September 17, 2024

Green (elbow) is expected to throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Clearing quantity hurdles

PCincinnati Reds

September 20, 2022

Greene and teammate Graham Ashcraft maybe not have to face an innings restriction in future seasons, with Cincinnati manager David Bell recently saying, "I don't know that we'll have to worry about their innings after this year," via Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer.

ANALYSIS
Greene recently returned from a shoulder injury and has continued logging productive innings for the Reds. He's logged a sparkling 2.15 ERA over his past five starts. The 23-year-old and No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 Draft has logged 108.2 innings at the big-league level this season.

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