Farm Futures: Arizona Fall League Roundup

After taking in five Arizona Fall League games this past week, including Saturday's Fall Stars game, a growing thought in my mind about the 2016 season was further solidified. The minor leagues are going to be significantly more devoid of talent, specifically on the hitting side in the upper levels, than they were a year ago. Conversely, I can't remember a time when the big leagues were this flush with talent. There were players I ranked outside my top-50 in last week's roundtable rankings who would have been in the mix for a spot in the top-30 last year, and there will be players who are ranked in the top-30 of the top-200 prospect rankings who wouldn't have cracked the top-60 last year.

The reason for this is obvious -- the 2015 rookie class was historic. With that in mind, it is important to continue to remind oneself that next year's rookies will not match the production of last year's bunch. Players like Corey Seager, Byron Buxton and Nomar Mazara are going to be fantastic, but there is a big-time drop-off after those guys in terms of rookie hitters who can contribute in 2016. The rookie pitchers will provide plenty of fantasy value, but that is going to be the case every year -- it's the nature of the position.

It is worth noting that the Arizona Fall League is not akin to the Future's Game. These are not the best prospects in the game. Obviously some of them are top-50 prospects, but they are in Arizona for a variety of reasons and talent may be the least of those, specifically on the pitching side. Some players are assigned to the AFL because they missed time with an injury, or because the team wants them to get more reps so that they can be promoted aggressively next year. Others have something specific that they need to work on, like a third pitch or a change to a hitter's approach. Teams also send players to the AFL to put them on display in hopes of trading them during the offseason. The point is, these are not the best of the best. On that somber note, here are my takeaways from a glorious three days of watching baseball in Arizona.

Alex Reyes (RHP)
The Fall Stars game was a bit disappointing, as we didn't get to see Reyes, who was by far the best pitcher in Arizona, because he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for marijuana. Makeup is not an issue here for me, nor should it be for his fantasy owners. Reyes, 21, is actually younger than Marcus Stroman was when he was suspended for smoking pot before the start of the 2013 season, and nobody has an issue with Stroman's makeup. The bigger issue is that Reyes could now struggle to have an impact at the big league level in 2016. He would have been on track to get there around the All-Star break, but that now that seems highly unlikely. Reyes is still a borderline top-10 prospect in dynasty leagues, as he has the stuff to pitch atop a big league rotation some day, but he can be ignored in single-season formats next year.

Jurickson Profar (2B/SS)
Profar was used exclusively as a DH, as he is still recovering from shoulder surgery and is currently unable to throw. Whether he will be able to throw by spring training is not yet known, but it adds another wrinkle in the Rangers' impending decision with what to do with the former top prospect. All signs point to him starting 2016 at Triple-A and serving as organizational middle infield depth, as he needs reps and Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor have earned the right to play every day.

A.J. Reed (1B)
He was shut down just before we arrived, as the Astros wanted him to be fresh heading into spring training after a very long 2015. Reed was the best hitter in the minor leagues last year, and he is the game's top first base prospect heading into 2016, in part because he is so close to reaching the majors. He could be up by April or May, and if he hits, he'll get the bulk of the starts at first base over the final 4-5 months.

Clint Frazier (OF)
After multiple looks, I'm sold on Frazier being a future above-average big league regular. He has some swing and miss in his game, particularly on breaking balls down and away, but that is a flaw that is fairly common among his contemporaries. He has the ability to play all three outfield spots and has plus power with above average speed. Baseball IQ and confidence/swagger also appeared evident in person. Frazier made great steps in 2015 to get his K-rate into a manageable territory, but he will likely struggle in that department in his first 200-300 at-bats against Double-A pitching. However, in the end he should make the necessary adjustments and be contributing at the big league level sometime in 2017.

J.P. Crawford (SS)
The official word is that Crawford was sent home from the AFL with a torn ligament in his thumb, that may not be the real reason. The talented two-way shortstop prospect was seen dogging it in Arizona, and the team may have been sending him a message. This is not the first time a top prospect has been uninterested in an assignment to the AFL, and it won't be the last, but this is of more concern from a makeup standpoint that Reyes' positive drug test. Crawford is an interesting player to rank, as he should be better in real life than in fantasy. He has a beautiful swing, but the power and speed will both be average at best. That said, he's probably a top-30 prospect for dynasty leagues, and could be up with the Phillies sometime late next summer.

Josh Hader (LHP)
He was the most impressive pitcher I saw in Arizona, and it wasn't really that close. In three innings against Peoria he gave up one hit with zero walks and four strikeouts, as hitters were never comfortable against the slender southpaw. Hader has a mid-90s heater, and a plus changeup, and was also getting some swings and misses on sliders in the dirt. With 124 innings of experience at Double-A, Hader could find his way into Milwaukee's rotation in late 2016, and he has the stuff to excel from Day 1. The initial evaluation when the Brewers acquired him in the Carlos Gomez trade was that he could be a No. 3, but I think he has the stuff to be a No. 2 in the not-so-distant future.

Luis Ortiz (RHP)
Ortiz was graciously sent to the AFL just before I got there, and he threw an inning for the Surprise squad, where he was in complete control while allowing one hit and notching one strikeout. Everything comes easy for him, with a plus fastball and plus slider, and the only concern is his ability to handle a full season's workload. If he can stay relatively healthy in 2016 and approach 100 innings, he could finish the season as a top-10 overall prospect for dynasty leagues -- he's that nasty.

Rowdy Tellez (1B)
Tellez was signed for third-round money in the 30th round of the 2013 draft, and because he was a late-round pick, the perception may not match reality in dynasty leagues. This is a top-100 fantasy prospect with the potential to stick in the middle of even the Blue Jays' imposing lineup. MLB.com's Jim Callis suggested that Tellez has the potential to hit 30 homers in a season, and while that may be his ceiling, he should be valuable even if he hits 20 homers, as there's the potential for a few .290 seasons mixed in. With Edwin Encarnacion possibly leaving Toronto in free agency after the 2016 season, Tellez's big league readiness could line up perfectly with his team's needs.

Christian Arroyo (SS)
Arroyo has a good stroke and made a handful of impressive plays in the field that suggest he has the range to stick at short, despite not being particularly speedy on the bases. His hit tool will have to carry the offensive profile, but this could be a .290 hitter who hits atop a lineup with 10-12 homer pop. Unfortunately there won't be anywhere for him to play in San Francisco anytime soon, but he won't be ready for the majors until sometime in mid-to-late 2017, so there's plenty of time for things to get sorted out.

Sean Manaea (LHP)
While Manaea looked pretty good in a two-inning sample (zero hits, one walk, four strikeouts) in the Fall Stars game, there have been concerns among scouts regarding his ability to hold his velocity late into games, and his ability to repeat an otherwise sound delivery. Manaea is very impressive physically, with a physical 6-foot-5 frame from the left side, and a fastball that was clocked as high as 94 in his two-inning stint in the Fall Stars game. There appears to be a growing concern among scouts, however, that Manaea could end up in the bullpen long term, so he should be thought of as a high risk/high reward option in dynasty leagues, as I also see the potential for a No. 2 starter if he can fix his flaws.

Alex Blandino (2B/SS)
Blandino looks the part of a middle infielder with 15-20 homer pop. I see a second baseman and not a shortstop, but even if he moves off short, Blandino could post Neil Walker-esque numbers in his prime years, which is plenty valuable in most formats.

Derek Fisher (OF)
Fisher is a perfect example of how watered down the crop of minor leaguers is, as he will probably be ranked as a top-100 prospect going into 2016, but it's probably 50/50 as to whether he'll make it as an everyday player. He has plus speed and plus raw power, but I didn't get many looks at him in the AFL, and the hitter-friendly conditions at Lancaster make his 2015 numbers tough to weigh heavily. It's probably a left field profile, and the Astros won't have need of him until 2017 at the earliest.

Luke Weaver (RHP)
It's easy to see why some scouts liked Weaver as much as any righty not named Alex Reyes in the fall league. He has a very smooth delivery, excellent control, a low-90s fastball and a filthy changeup that already grades out as a plus pitch. There were conflicting reports as to the development of his curveball, with some scouts labeling him a two-pitch pitcher, and others suggesting his third pitch will be good enough to keep hitters honest. Finding a spot in the Cardinals' rotation in a couple years could be a tall task, but just in the past week we saw one Red Birds hurler (Reyes) get suspended for smoking weed and another (Lance Lynn) undergo Tommy John surgery, so pitcher availability remains as fluid as ever, and Weaver should find a way into the mix, possibly as early as 2017.

Gary Sanchez (C)
Sanchez impressed in the Fall Stars game, crushing a ball over the left field fence, and he was also impressive at controlling the running game, with an extremely quick pop and gun down of Adrian Martin trying to steal second base in Friday's game. Most surprisingly, Sanchez stole a base in that same game -- his third steal of the fall league. Sanchez could be one of those players on display in the AFL for potential trade partners, as the Yankees won't have anywhere to play him in 2016, and he's ready for a shot in the majors, at least on a part-time basis.

Chad Pinder (SS)
While Pinder didn't look like an above average defender at shortstop, the A's certainly showed last year with Marcus Semien that being a gold-glove caliber defender is by no means a prerequisite for getting starts at short. Pinder is an under-the-radar option to take over at shortstop in Oakland in June or July, and he has the ability to offer 12-15 homers with a .270 average, making him a solid end-game play in AL-only formats.

Nick Travieso (RHP)
He got hit around a bit in the start I saw, but overall scouts have been impressed by what he's shown this year. There won't be major strikeout totals, but he has the build to handle a heavy workload, and could offer ratios befitting of a No. 3 starter. Look for him to spend most of 2016 in Double-A, with a possible big league debut in late 2017.

Willson Contreras (C)
Contreras strained his hamstring in the first game I saw him in, which was a shame, but the reports were all very positive. Assuming Kyle Schwarber's days at catcher are over, Contreras could be up splitting time with Miguel Montero in early 2016. A converted third baseman who took surprisingly quickly to catching, Contreras is probably the safest catching prospect in the minor leagues. He should offer a solid batting average and 10-12 homer pop with good defense behind the plate, though he will inevitably hit near the bottom of the Cubs' lineup.

Chance Sisco (C)
Everyone knows about Sisco's excellent hit tool, with the main concern being his ability to stick behind the plate. From what I saw, he should be able to remain a catcher, at least on a 80-100 game basis, and that could happen by late 2016.

Jake Bauers (OF/1B)
Bauers, who just turned 20 after posting a .733 OPS in 69 games at Double-A, has an advanced approach and a good hit tool, but his lack of big power or useful speed make him a tricky player to evaluate in fantasy. There's a good chance he makes it to Triple-A before he turns 21, which would be a very impressive feat, but he's more polish than tools at this point. One comical note: caught in a rundown between first and second in the Fall Stars game, Bauers tripped while running and fell into a cartwheel, which earned plenty of guffaws from the crowd and the players alike. He then endeared himself to everyone by tipping his hat to the fans as he walked to the dugout.

Lucas Sims (RHP)
Fastball command was a bit of an issue for Sims, which is obviously a red flag. However, his curveball was the best breaking ball I saw all weekend, as he was getting swings and misses on it in the zone at will. The pitch had a great shape -- a late 12-to-6 break -- and hitters were clearly not picking it up out of his hands. Sims was also sitting at 96 with his fastball, which sets his floor as a high-leverage reliever, if he can't improve his control. He should return to Double-A at the start of 2016, but given the uncertainty in the Braves' rotation, he could pitch his way to the majors in the second half.

Phillip Ervin (OF)
Ervin's bat speed is impressive, but I really don't love the body. He has the build of a football player, and not in a good way. Clay Link observed that he kind of looks like Brandon Phillips, and I think that's a little kind. Speed is his calling card to this point, and there's no way it continues to play as plus in games four or five years from now. He also just hasn't hit since his brief pro debut in 2013, much to the dismay of scouts. There are some impressive present tools, but he may not develop fast enough to be able to maximize them at the highest level.

Charlie Tilson (OF)
I'm a sucker for high average/high steals center fielders like Tilson. He's probably unowned in most dynasty leagues, but he stole 46 bags with a .296 average as a 22-year-old at Double-A last year, so there could be something here. I didn't get to see much of him in the fall league, but he's certainly a guy who could surprise some people and be useful in fantasy in a year or two.

Adam Engel (OF)
Engel, who turns 24 in a month, has done nothing but hit this fall, and that was the case when I saw him as well. He had seven homers and 65 steals in 136 games at High-A last year, but hit just .251 despite posting a .321 BABIP. He will be a little old for Double-A to be considered a high-end prospect, but there's definitely enough here to make him a player to watch in 2016.

Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Freeland didn't fare well in his two-inning appearance in the Fall Stars game, but he has the tools to be a solid mid-rotation starter. A very athletic 6-foot-3 southpaw, Freeland's command of his four pitches could be plus in time. If he were ever to be traded outside the Rockies' system I would be buying shares in a hurry.

Ronald Guzman (1B)
Scouts love Guzman's ability to barrel everything, but while he is listed at 6-foot-5, he looked closer to 6-foot-7, and with a fairly uncoordinated frame, making solid contact against big league pitching could be a bit of a challenge. He looked like a baby deer with limbs all over the place running from home to first, and while he was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a potential middle-of-the order power threat, there is little sign of him reaching that power potential. James Loney seems like the best-case offensive comparison, and when factoring in Guzman's below-average play at first base, it's hard to see him making it as an everyday option in the big leagues.

J.D. Davis (3B)
Davis has some major contact issues, and indeed he was the only player to swing and miss in five innings against Adrian Houser in Thursday's game. Sadly, the comp I was left with is Matt Davidson, given his size, position, power and contact issues. This comp is not enough to move Davidson off the top-200, given how barren the power hitter talent pool is at the upper levels of the minors. Additionally, Colin Moran seems like the inevitable internal option at the hot corner for the Astros, so Davis looks like a bench bat long term. Needless to say, he's a guy I'd sell high on if possible.

Yacksel Rios (RHP)
Rios was a bit of an unknown heading into the fall league, but he was impressive in Thursday's outing. He was sitting in the low-90s and displaying excellent command en route to four shutout innings of one-hit ball with four strikeouts. Rios was especially effective locating his fastball on the outer half of the plate. The strikeout totals probably won't be too impressive as he moves to Double-A next year, but he has the command to pitch at the back of a big league rotation.

Adrian Houser (RHP)
Houser tossed five shutout innings in Thursday's start against Glendale, but he had zero strikeouts and generated only a couple swinging strikes. While he gave up just three hits, there were more than half a dozen hard hit balls that went for outs due to a very straight mid-90s fastball. The most impressive thing about Houser is his muscular build, which was reminiscent of Jake Arrieta and lends one to believe that he'll be able to handle a heavy workload. Unfortunately, the stuff suggests he has a No. 4 ceiling and will more likely be a No. 5 for Milwaukee.

Andrew Knapp (C)
Knapp may not be talented enough to be an everyday catcher in the big leagues long term, but he will still probably get that chance at some point in 2016. His outstanding numbers (.360/.419/.631) in 55 games at Double-A may lead to some overexcitement, as he's probably more of a bat-first backup long term. Jorge Alfaro is further away from being big league ready than many may believe, so Knapp could still churn out a season or two of usefulness in deeper leagues.

Adam Walker (OF)
The most impressive physical specimen in the fall league, Walker is built almost exactly like Cam Newton. It should therefore come as no surprise that he packs a ton of raw power, perhaps more than any AL prospect other than Joey Gallo. There were plenty of Chris Carter comps bandied about among other writers at the conference, but Walker can do some things that Carter can't do, like steal the occasional base and play a passable left field. Unfortunately, Walker may have even more significant contact issues than Gallo or Carter, and is therefore unlikely to make it as a big league regular.

Reese McGuire (C)
There doesn't seem to be much debate that McGuire will make it as an everyday catcher based on his plus defense, which was evident in multiple views, but there's no reason to believe he will be even an average offensive option in fantasy. He needs to add strength in order to hit advanced pitching, and he is unlikely to ever hit double digit homers in a season.

Sam Travis (1B)
Travis has a nice hit tool, but in the end it probably won't be enough for him to be a regular at first base for Boston. He might actually end up being exactly like Garrin Cecchini, where he'd get a long look on half the clubs in the league, but he doesn't have enough power to be seen as a long-term option on a club with Boston's resources. Travis isn't capable of moving to third base or the outfield, and if his bat doesn't play at first, it obviously won't play at DH.

Dylan Bundy (RHP)
He was supposed to pitch one inning of relief for Peoria last Friday, but surprisingly ended up getting his one inning as a starter, which we barely missed due to a warranted craving of authentic Italian hoagies from Casella's in Scottsdale. Anyway, reports had him sitting in the low-90s, with unimpressive secondaries, and he gave up one run on two hits with zero strikeouts. To make matters worse, he was then scratched from his next start with forearm tightness. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Considering he has no options left, he will either start the year on the DL, in the big league rotation or in the bullpen, and the DL sounds like the most likely scenario at this point.

Aledmys Diaz (SS)
Diaz looks more like a second baseman than a shortstop to me, but the Cardinals have yet to try him at the keystone. In several looks in the AFL Diaz appears to be ready to offer middle infield depth for the Cardinals at some point in 2016, and over a full season he could hit .270 with a handful of home runs.

Dustin Fowler (OF)
Fowler wasn't on my radar before making the trip to Arizona, but he was one of the more impressive position players I saw there. He doesn't have much over-the-fence power, but he will still hit his fair share of doubles and triples thanks to plus speed. Fowler hit .298 with 30 steals (on 43 attempts) in 123 games between Low-A and High-A as a 20-year-old last year, so he could be intriguing down the road if he finds himself on a team that is willing to give him a shot as an everyday center fielder.

Adalberto Mejia (LHP)
The bulky lefty did nothing in 3.2 innings Friday to suggest he'll be anything other than a back-end starter in the big leagues. Hitters were routinely squaring up his fastball for hard hits right back up the middle, and while he recorded five strikeouts, that was more of an indictment of the over-aggressive approach of some of the Salt River hitters.

Yoan Lopez (RHP)
Lopez is something of an enigma, as he can look the part of a potential mid-rotation starter, but there are major makeup concerns, and he may not have the patience or poise to make it as a starter. It's just a small thing, but his impatience with throwing worthwhile warmup pitches encompasses his attitude toward the game in a nutshell. I would be looking to unload shares, as the risk outweighs the upside at this point.

D.J. Peterson (1B)
If there are those who still believe Peterson will make it as an everyday first baseman, I didn't run into any of them in Arizona. His 2015 was horrendous, and since his lack of athleticism pigeonholes him as a first baseman or DH, he really needs to hit and there's no evidence to suggest he will.

Gabby Guerrero (OF)
Guerrero looked pretty lost at the plate in several looks. He's an easy guy to pull for, as his swing brings back memories of his uncle, but it just doesn't seem like things are going to click for him anytime soon.

A Raimel Tapia/Austin Meadows Note: I saw plenty of Tapia and Meadows in Arizona, and will devote an entire article to them in the coming days.