This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
With the Wild Card Games in the rear view mirror, Thursday represents the start of the National League Division Series, with a two-game slate featuring Cardinals-Braves and Nationals-Dodgers set to take place after 5:02 p.m. ET.
Pitching
Walker Buehler ($10,200) and Patrick Corbin ($9,800) will face off in a high-profile pitching matchup in Los Angeles. Dallas Keuchel ($8,100) and Miles Mikolas ($7,600) will meet in Atlanta.
The Dodgers, Nationals and Braves ranked fifth through seventh in runs per game this season, while St. Louis ranked 19th with over half a run per game fewer than those three teams, so Keuchel has by far the easiest matchup here.
Owners chasing the best ceiling on the mound should go with Buehler. His 29.2 percent strikeout rate in the regular season was slightly better than Corbin's 28.5 percent, and Buehler had a sparkling 2.86 ERA and .247 wOBA against at home. Corbin's 4.18 ERA and .320 wOBA against on the road represented a dramatic drop-off from his home numbers (2.40, .249).
Key Values/Chalk
Given Mikolas' 5.40 ERA and .354 wOBA allowed on the road, the Braves have the easiest matchup on offense as well. Freddie Freeman ($4,200) and Josh Donaldson ($3,500) battled injuries down the stretch, but the former posted a .407 home wOBA against righties and the latter was at .460, so both should be strong plays if they suit up. Outfielder Nick Markakis ($2,800) and catcher Brian McCann ($2,600) will both have the platoon advantage as left-handed sluggers, making them useful cheap lineup fillers.
The Cardinals will need to generate some offense in what's projected to be the higher-scoring game (over/under of 9.0 runs compared to 7.5 for WAS-LAD). Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) should lead the charge against Keuchel after posting a .395 wOBA against lefties this season. Catcher Yadier Molina ($2,700) is a cheaper alternative at the C/1B position, having produced a .368 wOBA in that split. Switch hitter Tommy Edman ($3,100) was especially successful from the right side, producing a .395 wOBA.
With both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg pitching in the Wild Card game against Milwaukee, things could go downhill quickly for Washington if Corbin struggles, as the Nationals bullpen finished with a league-worst 5.66 ERA. Corbin's lefty-on-lefty advantage takes some of the luster off many of Los Angeles' top left-handed bats, though Cody Bellinger ($4,500) actually produced a tremendous .436 wOBA at home against southpaws. A.J. Pollock ($3,400) was Los Angeles' answer to left-handed starters throughout the season; the right-handed slugger produced a .375 wOBA against southpaws.
Contrarians who roll with the Nationals here should lock in the team's top hitters. Juan Soto ($3,800) was the team's hero in the Wild Card Game and posted a .414 wOBA against righties this season, while Anthony Rendon ($4,300) was just behind him with a .411 mark. Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,000) is a nice option to fill the second base spot; the switch hitter recorded 40 RBI in 38 games after joining the Nationals.
One-offs
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has confirmed that David Freese ($2,800) will start this game, and Freese drastically outperformed his modest valuation with an OPS over 1.0 over 186 plate appearances this season.
Jose Martinez ($2,700) has been relegated to a pinch-hitting role, but don't count out the possibility of him drawing a surprise start against Keuchel, given his .414 wOBA against lefties.
While Ronald Acuna is expected to return from his hip injury and displace Billy Hamilton ($2,200) in center field, owners who overspend elsewhere and need to take a shot on a super cheap option could do worse than Hamilton, who can still make an impact off the bench as a pinch runner or could come in as a defensive replacement and earn some at-bats that way.
