This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the last Friday before the All-Star break, and we're lucky enough to get a few very fairly-priced arms, which leaves a lot of flexibility in building combinations of bats.
Generally, I don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. OAK ($11,400) -- Bumgarner is the safest pitcher on the board, being at home, without workload restrictions, and having a matchup that is tied with the lowest over/under total on the board (7.5). The A's have a 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, along with a 23.4% K%, making this a softer landing spot for Bumgarner than the one Noah Syndergaard has in his return from the DL on Friday night against the Nationals.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. WAS ($11,000) -- There is uncertainty about Syndergaard's workload cap in his first start back from the DL. In his lone rehab start with Brooklyn on Sunday, Syndergaard cruised through five innings and struck out seven while throwing 71 pitches, which makes something in the 85-90 pitch range seem likely. The Nationals have underperformed as a whole in 2018, and they enter Friday with a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (21.2% K%), while the match up against Tanner Roark leaves the Mets as a -140 favorite on the moneyline.
Rick Porcello, BOS vs. TOR ($9,800) -- The Blue Jays' offense has been a near league-average unit without Josh Donaldson (99 wRC+ vs. RHP), while posting the 11th-highest K% in the league in that split. Averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game this season, Porcello is appropriately priced, while he's flashed a slightly higher scoring ceiling than you might think, having topped 25 DraftKings points in two of his last four starts. As win probabilities go, Porcello has an edge over MadBum and Thor as the Red Sox are -210 favorites.
Walker Buehler, LAD vs. LAA ($9,500) -- After getting hit hard in a relief appearance when he made an earlier than expected return from the DL two weeks ago, interest in Buehler will likely be lighter than usual, especially with his price being just $500 under $10K. The fear here is that he will almost certainly be under a tighter workload restriction than Syndergaard, which makes the five-and-fly potential very high against an Angels lineup with a very low K% (20.1%). It would be reckless to use him in a cash-game lineup, but he's almost a contrarian play in tournaments given the uncertainty.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. DET ($8,400) -- The Tigers have been surprisingly productive against lefties this season, but their overall offensive output over the last 30 days has resulted in a 77 wRC+ and a 23.6% K%. The Astros are a -260 favorite on the moneyline, and the over/under sits at a reasonable 8.5, which gives Keuchel a very good shot at a win, but his value will be made or broken based on his strikeout total. For the season, Keuchel's 6.9 K/9 is his lowest since 2014, and his game-by-game variance has been wild, including a mere two against the White Sox in his last start, which was preceded by seven against the Rangers on July 3.
Carlos Martinez, STL vs. CIN ($8,100) -- At this price, Martinez should be the most heavily-owned pitcher in tournaments on Friday night. It may be fine to roll with him as one of your two, as there are many low-end pitchers to target with cheap bats, which will open up paths to low-owned lineup pieces for differentiation. Martinez seems to have kicked his temporary issue with walks, having issued just three over his three starts (19 innings), while racking up 18 strikeouts and allowing just five earned runs during that span. His match up against the Reds comes at home, which puts him in a pitcher-friendly environment, albeit against a Cincinnati lineup that has been near the league average in wRC+ (99) against righties this season.
Wei-Yin Chen, MIA vs. PHI ($4,800) -- Prior to a seven-run, 4.1-inning blow-up against Washington in his last start, Chen had back-to-back quality starts at home against the Rays and D-backs, posting 21.7 points and 17.9 points in those outings at a sub $5K price tag. The Phillies whiff a lot against righties, but they've been closer to league average in that regard against southpaws (22.9% K%), while rankings tied for 22nd in wRC+. The over/under sits at an even 8.0, and the Marlins are only a slight underdog on the moneyline, making Chen a GPP consideration for the SP2 spot for those willing to take on extra risk in order to have more spending flexibility on bats.
Summary: It may be tricky to get a lot of exposure to Coors bats with a Bumgarner-Martinez combination in cash games, but that duo leaves just over $3,800 per hitter. Pairing Bumgarner with one of the other viable starters is more desirable to avoid chalk on the mound given Martinez's low price.
Catcher
If Chris Iannetta ($3,600) is behind the plate for the Rockies against Christian Bergmann, he's an easy play for cash games especially. For an extra $100, Salvador Perez matches up against James Shields in Chicago, likely with similar attention in tournaments. Keep an eye on the Mariners' lineup for this matchup, as Chris Herrmann is only $3,100 and he'd have a platoon advantage as a lefty bat against Colorado righty Antonio Senzatela if he's given the nod over David Freitas.
Although he's been disappointment overall relative to his high draft-day cost in season-long formats, Willson Contreras has a .276/.394/.519 line against lefties since the start of 2017. He'll face Clayton Richard in San Diego, which plays closer to neutral for right-handed homers (three-year park index: 96), and Richards' .357 wOBA against righties is the fourth-worst among starters pitching Friday.
First Base
Jose Abreu has been mired in a deep slump, hitting .152/.200/.217 with one home run since June 15. Still, at a heavily discounted price ($3,600), I'm considering him again on a big slate. The Royals are starting Rule 5 pick Brad Keller again Friday, and his 13.8% K% against right-handed hitters is tied for the lowest on the slate. Although Keller has posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 28 appearances (seven starts) this season, his 5.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 leave plenty to be desired.
On the other side of the matchup, Lucas Duda ($3,700) draws James Shields on the road in Chicago, providing a significant park boost for a steady source of left-handed pop in a favorable matchup. The DraftKings pricing algorithm has been offering up Duda at a fair price all season long, and a matchup against Shields, who has a .350 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters and a 1.77 HR/9 against them since the start of 2016 should be exploited.
Jose Martinez ($3,600) is also in play as a relatively cheap bat with pop if he's entrusted with a start against Cincinnati right-hander Matt Harvey.
Second Base
Once again, paying up at the keystone looks like an excellent way to go. DJ LeMahieu ($4,600) and Dee Gordon ($4,400) are the options in Colorado, while Jose Altuve ($4,700) draws Mike Fiers. If your pitching is cheap enough to leave a couple of high-priced bats in play, I prefer Gordon in cash games, and Altuve in tournaments from this bunch, but all three should be fine in both contest types.
Jonathan Schoop at $3,700 with a righty-lefty matchup at home against Cole Hamels. Although Hamels has been striking out righties at an elevated clip compared to last season, his home-run rate his swelled (2.0 HR/9), for the first time in his career, his FIP against righties over 5.00 at 5.28. As mid-tier options go, Schoop is probably the best all-around value at the position. It's just a matter of deciding how good you feel about this matchup.
Third Base
If you are not buying into Wei-Yin Chen as a cheap second pitcher (and that should be the case for the bulk of lineups, even though I suggested that he's viable for certain contests above), Mikael Franco at $3,900 is one of the most interesting plays on the board at third base Friday. Since a reboot of sorts around the middle of June, Franco is hitting .383/.439/.633 with three homers, nine RBI and a 6:8 BB:K over his last 19 games.
Justin Turner is not starting Friday after leaving with an injury Thursday, but the slumping Adrian Beltre is now priced down to $3,400 with a road matchup against Alex Cobb and the Orioles if you believe that Cobb can help Beltre's bat get back on track in the final series before the All-Star break.
Shortstop
Brandon Crawford's season is not being fully appreciated. He's only $3,700 with a home matchup against Edwin Jackson, and even with the power-snuffing tendencies of AT&T Park he's one of the top value plays on the board at his position Friday. Crawford's home-road splits are nearly identical, and he's managed an OPS of .825 or better in San Francisco and elsewhere this season.
One interesting pivot at the same price is Paul DeJong, who has a righty-righty matchup with Matt Harvey at home. Harvey has made five straight starts without allowing a home run, but he's still not missing bats at a clip anywhere close to his once-dominant levels with the Mets a few years back.
Outfield
My angle with Andrew McCutchen is to generally load him up when he's under $4,000 against a lefty starter. We'll have to settle for Edwin Jackson as a good enough matchup against a righty to roll him out there on Friday, despite a modest .260/.343/.418 line against righties for Cutch since the start of last season. Since the start of 2016, Jackson has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball when he's had chances to take the ball, posting a .379 wOBA against righties (second-worst on the slate) along with a 2.37 HR/9 against them (worst on the slate).
Adam Jones is just $3,300 against Cole Hamels, and while his splits against left-handed pitching are nowhere near as good as Jonathan Schoop's, the logic presented above regarding Hamels' struggles against righties over the last two seasons makes Jones one of the top cheap outfield plays to consider on this slate. Jones is hitting just .276/.317/.394 against lefties since the start of 2017, but he's a tournament consideration as one of a few easy paths to salary relief with other bats.
Daniel Palka has a lot of raw power (11 homers in 221 plate appearances). He's a very flawed player, as evidenced by his overall slash line (.217/.267/.444), and this is a tournament-only consideration. The matchup against Royals Rule 5 pick Brad Keller is just good enough to roll the dice on Palka (assuming he gets the start) if you're in need of another cheap source of pop well under $4K ($3,600).
