This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We head into one of the tougher days to play DFS, as the trade deadline looms at 6 pm ET. That could mean a lot of last-minute scratches and changes in starting pitchers. Of course, that also creates opportunities for those who can pivot quickly. For those that can't, it may be a day to play a light volume or skip the slate altogether.
Pitchers
It's a top-heavy day in the pitcher pool. Hunter Brown ($9,000) draws an excellent matchup against a short-handed Pirates lineup. He doesn't have the highest strikeout upside, but his win potential is strong and he's worked at least six innings in 12 consecutive starts.
Michael Wacha ($8,700) is significantly overpriced, so he's not likely to pop in projections and is another pitcher who isn't known for punchouts. What he does have on his side is a tremendous matchup against a White Sox lineup likely to be only further weakened from its typical state.
Robbie Ray ($8,200) offers more of a boom-bust profile. He's set for only his second start of the season but was excellent in his debut, racking up eight strikeouts in five innings of work. He'll face the A's, who have had quite a formidable lineup lately, but he does benefit from a favorable home park and good win potential.
Ray is arguably the cutoff for comfortable options, though James Paxton ($7,600) offers some intrigue. He's set for his Red Sox debut and is admittedly volatile, but he squares off against Seattle – a matchup worth targeting all season. They've taken some steps to improve their lineup in the last few days, but there's no reason to shy away from them until they prove dangerous.
For those with a strong stomach, Griffin Canning ($6,700) is an option. He's been poor for most of the season but has popped for starts of 16 to 20 DraftKings points. Tuesday should be a chance for him to excel against the Rockies in Los Angeles.
Top Hitters
JP Sears has struggled away from Oakland Coliseum and against right-handed hitters this season. Oracle Park is not at all friendly for home runs, but Matt Chapman ($4,500) is still a bat to target. Chapman doesn't have any home/away split for the season and should take advantage of the matchup.
Like a lot of hitters, Willy Adames ($4,400) is streaky. He's in the midst of a current hot streak, blasting three homers in his last 10 games while maintaining a .641 slugging percentage. He and the Brewers match up against Bryce Elder, who has allowed 11 earned runs across his last 16 innings of work.
Value Bats
The Rockies are known for hitting at Coors Field, but Michael Toglia ($3,700) has proven capable of hitting for power regardless of venue. That should shine through with Canning on the mound, who has given up 1.6 HR/9 this season.
The Twins are aggressive in adjusting their lineup against left-handed pitching, including slotting Manuel Margot ($3,500) into the leadoff spot. He's maintained a .337 wOBA against southpaws this season, making him a nice value option.
Stacks to Consider
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon): Michael Massey ($4,100), Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,100), Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,700)
Cannon hasn't had a home run issue early in his career, but the basepaths have consistently been busy against him – evident from his 1.35 WHIP. He's also allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts and will face a Royals lineup that has been nearly an exactly league-average offense this season and in the last month. However, they have a deep lineup full of decent values such as Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) and MJ Melendez ($3,000). That makes them intriguing, particularly on a day when it will likely be popular to pay up for pitching.
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins (David Festa): Francisco Lindor ($5,900), Brandon Nimmo ($5,000), Pete Alonso ($5,200)
This is an expensive stack, which immediately makes it tough given the state of pitching. That should also make rostering one of the hottest lineups in the league relatively unique, which is a chance we don't get every day. Adding on top of that is a matchup against David Festa, who has allowed 13 earned runs in his first 14.1 innings in the majors.
