Collette Calls: Value in the Scrap Heap for 2023

This is the ninth edition of this article. It was first published in the annual print magazine (what are those??) and now makes its appearance online because it's one of my favorite articles to write each year. Previously, I had to stay within a very specific word count for this article to fit within a one or two page spread for the magazine, but I'm no longer held back by such constraints. 

I have a solid track record in this piece, with several big hits (and misses) each season. You can't hit them all, but the fact remains that there's plenty of value in the fantasy scrap heap every season. Previous seasons saw this article outline the upside to bargain finds such as Yandy Diaz, Lance Lynn, Brandon Nimmo, Corbin Burnes, Luis Arraez, C.J. Cron, Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler O'Neill before each player had breakout fantasy seasons. Last season, I outlined a rebound for Blake Snell, why not to give up on Alec Bohm, how there was still some more juice in Corey Kluber, why Triston McKenzie was going to have a big year and why I also liked James Karinchak and Manuel Margot despite the unclear roles for both. Of course, I also spoke favorably about Rougned Odor, Garrett Hampson, and Gary Sanchez, so you win some and lose some. 

These types of reclamation projects live amongst the player pool heading into every draft. These are also the types of players which, more often than not, you can find on the rosters of the folks winning your league because of the massive return on investment provided from such end-game picks. They lurk in groups of players rebounding from poor seasons caused by injury, players roadblocked on the depth chart or players who have a confluence of factors contributing to a questionable draft profile. These conditions often suppress a player's reputation during a draft season, presenting a buying opportunity, depending on your comfort with the risk and reward. As the old saying goes: you don't win a league in the first few rounds; you win it in the last few rounds. 

Let's begin with players coming off bad seasons, regardless of reason. To qualify for this pool, players must have returned less than $5 of fantasy value in 2022 after an ADP in the top 300, and now find their 2023 ADP lower than their final 2022 ADP. The purpose is to find players who were very front of mind last draft season whose perceived market value may be slipping due to recency bias. For this column, I'm using the ADP for the 57 Draft Champion leagues which have been completed as of January 9th, 2023 at NFBC. The parameters for this list require that the player has a current ADP higher than 300 and was drafted anywhere last season. I'm particularly focused on players who have seen their ADP decline a noticeable amount. We will start with the pitchers.

PITCHERS

Manaea was a hot name heading into last season but is getting the cold shoulder so far this fantasy season. His overall numbers were impacted by a brutal stretch of pitching during the dog days of summer which saw him post an 8.36 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP despite an 18% K-BB%, as he allowed 12 homers in 37.2 innings of work over those eight starts. Ironically, he avoided the IL for a third consecutive season, but those starts happened and it crushed too many fantasy managers. Manaea still had whiff rates of greater than 20 percent on all of his pitches, and the relocation to San Francisco should afford him better run support as well as better support from the bullpen. He may not be 2018 good again, but he should be able to pull his numbers closer to where they stood in 2021.

Rodriguez's 2022 season was almost a lost cause as the pitcher went AWOL early in the summer when the club placed him on the restricted list due to personal matters. He did eventually return to the club and finished the season with 17 starts, but the results were far from the level of production he had displayed in the three previous full seasons. The issues off the field no doubt impacted his mental and physical approach to the game as his stuff was down across the board, but we're not that far removed from him being a successful pitcher. The defense in Detroit, particularly in the outfield, should be improved, which can help Rodriguez right the ship if he's in a better place heading into camp. If that happens, he should be able to replicate his 2018 or 2021 levels of production with possibly even more volume.

Estevez is included in this list because his change of address should have more of an impact on his market value than it has to this point. Estevez throws three pitches which routinely get whiff rates over 20 percent and survived Coors Field. He now enters the high-leverage mix in Anaheim, where possibilities are wide open. His homer splits on the road and at home are identical, but his road batting average is 25 points lower than what it was at Coors and his 3.51 ERA away from Coors is much more attractive than the 5.57 ERA he had in Denver. 

Barlow came into the 2022 season as a lower-tier closer option who many viewed as the last option to roster saves before deciding to punt the category. He ended up losing the job over the summer while pitching through injuries and required surgery in the offseason to fix an issue which was leading to the blisters which plagued him. Barlow, despite all that, was still able to get good whiff rates off his slider and four-seamer, but the expected stats suggest he was more lucky than good. The closing situation in Texas comes down to a recovering duo of Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez as well as lefty Brock Burke, who could get a shot since the pen has two other lefties in the fold. A healthy spring could put Barlow back in the closer role to begin the season since he has been there and done that while the others lack that experience on their resume.

Speaking of injuries, Patino went down in his first outing of the season in the first inning of that outing with an oblique injury and didn't pitch again until after the All-Star Break. His season ended in mid-September with mild shoulder discomfort. He is a two-pitch pitcher at this time who looks more like a reliever with his fastball/slider combination and lack of even a serviceable changeup, but given Tampa Bay's track record with pitchers, it would be silly to write Patino off so quickly. He is just one year removed from being many's favorite late-round sleeper, and how many times does Tampa Bay need to fix a pitcher to prove others wrong? After all, Drew Rasmussen still cannot throw a changeup, and look at his success. Just saying...

Sims was a lost cause in 2022, missing nearly the entire season with lower-back issues, which opened the door for Alexis Diaz to become the next hot ticket in Cincy and become a popular closer option this draft season. Sims is but a season removed from a dominating 2021 campaign in which the league hit .151 off his fastball and .197 off his slider, which still gives him value in high-leverage situations. Sims may not have shallow mixed-league viability for drafts, but deeper mixed leagues, NL-Only and draft-and-hold leagues shouldn't overlook his potential value at this very low acquisition cost. 

Garcia doesn't have a likely path to saves in San Diego unless Josh Hader's issues last year resurface and/or Robert Suarez slips up. Garcia has 11 total saves in his 10-year career, but San Diego's decision to tweak his repertoire has unveiled more whiffiness to his game. His slider was downright unhittable last season, as the league hit .050 off it while swinging and missing 57 percent of the time. Throw in the splitter, which eats up lefties, and you see how the elder statesman in the San Diego pen had four wins and three saves last year. Garcia can be handled much like Sims. 

HITTERS

Are you ready to be hurt again with Gallo? Looking at his ADP, many are not. Gallo is reworking his swing this winter and escaping New York should certainly help. I personally like the landing spot in Minnesota for him, as this is a club that gave Miguel Sano all the chances in the world despite similar flaws at the plate. The shift changes should help Gallo a bit, as should the overall park factors in Minnesota. Late-round power dart throws are the name of the game and few fit that bill better than Gallo does. Yes, he's fraught with risk, but since his acquisition cost is mostly in the late or even reserve rounds, he's an easy cut and run option if 2022 bleeds over into 2023. Conversely, if he goes undrafted and gets hot early, he could cost you a lot more in FAAB.

Myers enters a favorable fantasy situation where he can get all the volume his body can handle in a very nice home ballpark. Tommy Pham didn't do well with this situation himself last season, so there are no guarantees, but the expected homer totals from StatCast tell us Myers would have more than doubled his 2022 home run total had he played with the Reds in 2022. He's on a one-year deal, so (like Pham) he'll likely be dealt away to a contender by the deadline, but for now, enjoy the dual eligibility and his opportunity to hit everyday in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup and recover some of the fantasy value he lost last season.

Candelario falls into a similar situation as he moves from the spacious Comerica Park to a better situation in Washington. Candelario saw his number plunge back to pre-pandemic levels last season after a solid run in 2020 and 2021, falling out of favor with Detroit. He still had top 25th percentile max exit velocity, but gave up most of the red ink on his StatCast profile page, which was glowing red in some areas the previous two seasons.  A likely culprit for the decline in numbers was the left shoulder injury which costs him some time during the season and cut into his effectiveness against right-handed pitchers:

Candelario will be given the opportunity to hit in the middle of the Nationals' lineup, which should allow him the opportunity to recover his lost fantasy value as long as his shoulder is 100 percent.

Adell somehow still has a minor-league option left, and the recent addition of Brett Phillips (who is out of options) to the roster appears to punch Adell's ticket back to Salt Lake City. To be fair, Adell has done little to guarantee a roster spot for himself, showing poor skills at the plate and bad defense in the field in his irregular playing time. He still has elite foot speed and better than average pop in his bat and is seemingly begging for a change of scenery to get more consistent playing time or rid himself of the expectations which have been sky high for him in Anaheim. This could be a more recent version of Brandon Wood, but Adell isn't even 24 years old yet. The acquisition cost for the potential upside here is too good to ignore.

Dalbec's power upside never materialized last season as he struggled to make contact and eventually found himself marginalized in the Boston lineup. He enters the season as the likely short-side platoon partner for Triston Casas and the insurance policy for the pending Justin Turner injuries, but there is still some good in his bat when he makes contact. His expected weighted on base average on contact (xwOBACON) was higher than the likes of Pete Alonso, Manny Machado and Christian Yelich last season and he even had a higher barrel rate than Paul Goldschmidt and teammate Rafael Devers. The problem continues to be the gaps between his moments of contact, as he has a very high whiff rate, particularly on non-fastballs. There's no need to go above the reserve rounds for this late power dart, but there's enough there to give him one more chance. 

Belt just signed a deal with Toronto as the club continues its efforts to diversify its righty-heavy lineup. Belt gives the Jays an experienced strongside platoon bat at DH as long as his knee is fully recovered, as knee troubles wrecked his 2022 productivity on the heels of his surprising late-career power surge of 2021. Even with the more balanced schedule, the conditions are right in Rogers Centre as well as the other AL East parks for him to have a bounceback season assuming his lower half is 100 percent. The platoon situation limits his shallow mixed-league viability, but other formats should be more interested now that Belt has found a good place to call home in 2023.

Anderson has yet to find a home coming off a season in which a bout with Covid as well as shoulder issues reduced his playing time and effectiveness with Miami. His 2019 power numbers are the anomaly, but his overall numbers fell as he struggled against righty pitchers for the first time in his career:

He still has dual position eligibility and is not that far removed from his time as a successful hitter, but two years of health issues have certainly done their best to distance him from success. Just because Miami decided he wasn't worth another season does not mean you must do the same.

Finally, we have old man river in Cruz. Cruz is likely using the World Baseball Classic as his way to decide whether he wants to play another season after finally showing his age in 2022. We learned later in the year that Cruz was dealing with an eye issue which required surgery after the season, which certainly explains why he failed to look like the dominant hitter he's been for so many years as he bravely fights off the statistical aging curve. The 2022 struggles came on the heels of the struggles he had with Tampa Bay, which gave more fuel to the doubters, and that combination along with his current unemployment has pushed his market value down to a price where it's almost impossible not to take one more chance on him to see if the surgery has given him at least another season of life somewhere. Update - he has landed in San Diego