This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Spencer Strider went first overall in at least one of the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts this past draft season, and we all know how that worked out. Strider wasn't the only early-round disappointment this year, with several early picks falling short due to injury or underperformance, but we all know how reactionary we are as fantasy managers. Any time one season plays out in such a manner, we tend to see a bit of overreaction theater the next draft season. It's probably a safe bet we will see few, if any, first round picks exercised on starting pitchers. We should start to get ahead of the game and begin to look at how the marketplace will shake out by first looking at what happened this year.
The table below shows all starting pitchers with an ADP below 100 in the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts last season and their current earned auction value in the 12-team format:
| STARTER | Team | ADP | EAV | INJ? |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | 5.4 | $0.0 | YES |
| Corbin Burnes | BAL | 20.6 | $17.7 | NO |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 24.5 | $28.7 | NO |
| Luis Castillo | SEA | 30.2 | $10.3 | YES |
| George Kirby | SEA | 35.5 | $13.8 | NO |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD | 36.3 | $13.1 | YES |
| Pablo Lopez | MIN | 37.0 | $14.4 | NO |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | 39.7 | $4.8 | NO |
| Zac Gallen | ARZ | 42.3 | $5.2 | YES |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | 42.5 | $32.2 | NO |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 42.7 | $1.1 | YES |
| Logan Webb | SF | 52.1 | $8.8 | NO |
| Max Fried | ATL | 53.3 | $5.2 | YES |
| Freddy Peralta | MLW | 54.0 | $8.0 | NO |
| Aaron Nola | PHI |
Spencer Strider went first overall in at least one of the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts this past draft season, and we all know how that worked out. Strider wasn't the only early-round disappointment this year, with several early picks falling short due to injury or underperformance, but we all know how reactionary we are as fantasy managers. Any time one season plays out in such a manner, we tend to see a bit of overreaction theater the next draft season. It's probably a safe bet we will see few, if any, first round picks exercised on starting pitchers. We should start to get ahead of the game and begin to look at how the marketplace will shake out by first looking at what happened this year.
The table below shows all starting pitchers with an ADP below 100 in the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts last season and their current earned auction value in the 12-team format:
| STARTER | Team | ADP | EAV | INJ? |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | 5.4 | $0.0 | YES |
| Corbin Burnes | BAL | 20.6 | $17.7 | NO |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 24.5 | $28.7 | NO |
| Luis Castillo | SEA | 30.2 | $10.3 | YES |
| George Kirby | SEA | 35.5 | $13.8 | NO |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD | 36.3 | $13.1 | YES |
| Pablo Lopez | MIN | 37.0 | $14.4 | NO |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | 39.7 | $4.8 | NO |
| Zac Gallen | ARZ | 42.3 | $5.2 | YES |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | 42.5 | $32.2 | NO |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 42.7 | $1.1 | YES |
| Logan Webb | SF | 52.1 | $8.8 | NO |
| Max Fried | ATL | 53.3 | $5.2 | YES |
| Freddy Peralta | MLW | 54.0 | $8.0 | NO |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 56.8 | $10.6 | NO |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | 57.9 | $18.1 | NO |
| Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | 63.6 | $5.0 | YES |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | 65.7 | $20.8 | NO |
| Bobby Miller | LAD | 66.3 | -$24.9 | YES |
| Blake Snell | SF | 71.0 | -$1.8 | YES |
| Zach Eflin | BAL | 75.9 | $7.1 | YES |
| Jesus Luzardo | MIA | 79.6 | -$13.0 | YES |
| Cole Ragans | KC | 79.7 | $15.6 | NO |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | 87.5 | $8.2 | YES |
| Dylan Cease | SD | 95.2 | $18.2 | NO |
| Justin Steele | CHC | 96.7 | $4.6 | YES |
13 of the 26 starters had at least one stint on the injured list this season, while 8 of the 26 failed to reach the 140-inning mark. This is not exactly what one would call a strong return on investment. Now, let's look at the top 26 pitchers by earned auction value this season. Pitchers with bolded EAV also appeared on the previous table:
Value | ADP | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
32.2 | 42.5 | DET | |
32.0 | 102.9 | ATL | |
28.7 | 24.5 | PHI | |
22.3 | 266.3 | KC | |
20.8 | 65.7 | SEA | |
18.4 | 158.3 | CHC | |
18.2 | 95.2 | SD | |
18.1 | 57.9 | HOU | |
17.7 | 303.2 | LAD | |
17.7 | 20.6 | BAL | |
17.1 | 164.3 | SEA | |
16.6 | 268.2 | PIT | |
15.7 | 133.5 | STL | |
15.6 | 79.7 | KC | |
15.5 | 161.0 | TOR | |
14.7 | 135.1 | CIN | |
14.7 | 360.5 | HOU | |
14.4 | 37.0 | MIN | |
14.3 | 122.5 | MIN | |
14.1 | 128.7 | SD | |
13.8 | 35.5 | SEA | |
13.5 | 318.6 | NYM | |
13.1 | 36.3 | LAD | |
12.0 | 341.0 | NYY | |
11.2 | 110.8 | CLE | |
11.1 | 327.7 | ATL |
Just 10 of the top 26 starters by ADP also made the top 26 list for earned auction value. To run it a step further, just 12 of the top 26 starters by ADP have a double-digit EAV this season, as Aaron Nola and Luis Castillo just missed making this list.
Perhaps the lesson learned or the strategy to embrace with starting pitching is lean into the risk? Skubal and Sale are likely to take home their league's respective Cy Young Awards, and both could even take home the pitching triple crown as well. The two pitchers combined to work 183 innings in 2023, with Skubal on his way back from a repaired flexor tendon and Sale missing significant time with shoulder inflammation. Skubal looked fantastic once he eventually got healthy in the 2023 season, so the recency bias was freshly in mind as he went as high as 25 but shockingly as low as 70 in one of the 228 drafts. Sale was a different story since so many of us were left holding the bag with Sale in recent years, and he went as high as 68 and as low as 205 in the same set of drafts. Skubal has provided a return on what was invested plus a little bonus, while Sale has blown many fantasy managers (as well as hitters) away this season as the second-most valuable pitcher after going 43rd off the board in drafts last season.
This is where I feel we may see some overreaction theater. Skubal was drafted according to how he pitched in 2023, but with a cleaner injury history, he likely would have gone a little higher. Sale was going in the seventh round, as fantasy managers hoped that his homer problems in the AL East would be resolved in a new location and that he would have one more good season in his 35-year old arm. However, there was just one other starting pitcher who earned at least $20 who went later than pick 100, and that was Seth Lugo. The scatterplot view below may help hammer home this point:
If your plan is to build around one solid source of value, your best plan is still to invest in someone early, but there is certainly a path forward by accumulating enough value in the later rounds. That said, let's briefly revisit the top earners of this season, because they will strongly influence the marketplace once drafting kicks off in earnest. I will reserve a deeper dive into these pitchers until the offseason, but for now will offer short quips about each:
| Player | Pro | Con |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Unreal since July 2023 | One season over 150 IP; workload jump |
| Chris Sale | Back with a vengeance | One season over 150 IP since 2018 |
| Zack Wheeler | Steady Eddie statistically | Boring; ceiling was 2021 |
| Seth Lugo | Healthy as a horse | Career year at 34; workload spike already showing in late 24 |
| Logan Gilbert | Continues to improve | Seattle offense killed his EAV this season |
| Shota Imanaga | Succeeded in first year, unlike many ex-NPB pitchers before him | Sophomore slump; homers |
| Dylan Cease | Contract year, reduced walks | Has thrown more pitches over last three years than any SP despite being 10th in IP |
| Framber Valdez | Ramped up grounders again & gets his wins | Early 2024 struggles happened & how does Houston retool its offense this winter? |
| Jack Flaherty | Best he has looked post-pandemic | Can he repeat it given his struggles to stay out of his own way previously? |
| Corbin Burnes | Hasn't missed a start in three years | All of this |
| Bryce Miller | Winning double-digit games for Seattle | 34% jump in workload; see 2023 numbers after 2022 workload jump |
| Paul Skenes | Points at :all of this: | He still pitches in Pittsburgh where margins remain slim; Could be 2025 version of Ragans or 2025 version of G. Rodriguez |
| Sonny Gray | Healthier now than he was previously; new-found strikeout rate | Has never had three consecutive seasons of 160+ IP of work |
| Cole Ragans | All those strikeouts w/o even facing White Sox??!! | Even if KC doesn't make postseason, Ragans has a 44.4% workload spike YoY; Could reach Gallen territory should KC push into October |
| Jose Berrios | Has not missed a start since 2017 | He's won 16 games for a last-place team & indicators show how fortunate he was. Quantity versus Quality. |
| Hunter Greene | Looked fantastic until... | Season ended with elbow soreness (assuming he doesn't pitch again) |
| Ronel Blanco | A RKO-like career breakout out of nowhere at age 30 | Look left; try to find the next guy like this and don't bet on a repeat |
| Pablo Lopez | Three years of health and consistent if not boring numbers | ERA continues to be on the high end for a pitcher stingy with walks and tough to hit; Homers... |
| Bailey Ober | Nice growth year statistically hidden by some blow-ups | Inconsistency; allowed 5+ ER in 5 starts including 17 ER in just 3.1 IP vs ATL & KC |
| Michael King | Roared as a first time full-time SP | Massive workload jump only going to get higher in October |
| George Kirby | '23 & '24 aren't as far apart statistically as it feels | What is Seattle going to do with its offense? They're wasting these pitchers. |
| Sean Manaea | Outstanding course correction after years of struggles | Does Manaea exercise his player option and test waters where the extra pressures of new deal & new home come into play? |
| Tyler Glasnow | He finally broke the 120 IP plateau! | He ended the season with elbow issues and we won't likely see him pitch until the spring |
| Luis Gil | Awesome rookie debut, fantasy-wise | The walks; the high flyball rate in that park, and the indicators point to the risk |
| Tanner Bibee | Mostly validated 2023 hype | 2nd half dropoff & extreme TTO penalty |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Successful return to SP role after 4-year layoff | August forearm inflammation & September shoulder inflammation |
All of this to say that I will be approaching the pitching market with more trepidation than in previous seasons. I have done rather well with my fantasy pitching in most leagues in recent years, but as it stands today, I am not certain how I plan to navigate these waters this winter given the risks associated with many of the top starting pitching performers this season. How about you?
