Collette Calls: Baffling Bullpens by the Numbers

I was reading Ryan Rufe's latest Closer Encounters installment last week, and it got me thinking about a few of the bullpen situations fantasy managers must navigate as we head into the peak of draft season. Mixed-league fantasy managers mostly only focus on closers and setup men, while those of us in mono leagues need to sometimes go three or four deep into bullpens because those pitchers are all usable in deeper leagues during the season. Sometimes those situations are easy to deal with, such as the situation in the Cleveland bullpen where the job is clearly Emmanuel Clase's as long as he remains healthy and doesn't get dealt. Conversely, we have the new mess on the south side of Chicago after the White Sox sent Gregory Santos to Seattle for Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa. Let's actually start with that bullpen situation.

We all know the White Sox will be terrible this season, yet we remember that Trevor May still saved 21 games for an equally terrible Oakland club just last year. The top six pitchers by Stuff+ from last year's bullpen are no longer on the roster; Garret Crochet has the high returning Stuff+ score (104) but hasn't found home plate consistently since 2020. Despite the injuries and command issues, Crochet is being converted to a starter this season. However, when looking at the numbers, there is one clear candidate who stands out from the rest:

*=minor league numbers

This job should be Brebbia's to lose, and it's not particularly close. Brebbia is a two-pitch guy who bounced back from TJS surgery in 2020 and is once again paired up with Brian Bannister, who helped Brebbia rebound nicely with the Giants last season. The league had a .223 xBA off his slider and a .198 xBA off his fastball, while both pitches had at least a 25 percent whiff rate. Do not overthink this one; the majority of the saves for the White Sox should be Brebbia's as long as he's on the team, because he only has a one-year deal with the club. Should Brebbia continue to pitch as effectively as he did last season, he would make an excellent trade chip at the deadline. Should that trade happen, then it could be time for one of the younger live arms such as Berroa or Speas to step in, assuming either of them find consistency. Both have lively stuff in the minors but have had long paths to get even the sips of coffee they managed at the major-league level last season. 

Brebbia's ADP over the past 30 days is in the low 600s, but he already jumped up to 400 in a draft over the weekend so the market price is moving quickly. He is still a lower-tier closer due to team context, but in AL-only leagues, saves are saves, while mixed leaguers will be using a late-round pick on him if not an early reserve selection.

Let's next look at the Texas situation, as their closer story is a bit more clouded with the additions of David Robertson and Kirby Yates this winter. There are four names in play for Texas closer role. The table below shows their 2023 scores just as it did for the White Sox pen:

Robertson looks like the clear winner under this lens with the best pure stuff grade even without the best K-BB% of the quartet. Robertson also brings experience to the table with 175 career saves, 38 of which have come over the past two seasons. Readers will recall I used Leclerc as my bold prediction for Texas in the recently completed series, and I stand by 95 percent of that as I no longer believe he can get 30 saves with the added competition to the picture. I would also be remiss if I failed to mention how impressive Sborz looked out of the pen throughout the Rangers run to the World Series title. 

Let's now jump over to the National League and give mixed-league owners as well as NL-only owners two situations to think about. We'll start in the Philadelphia bullpen because there are several narratives happening there. I am adding a wrinkle to the previous table and including the percentage of saves Ryan projection in his Closer Encounter piece:

This situation is not easy to interpret! Alvarado has the highest ADP over the past 30 days at 178 with Kerkering going at 375, Hoffman at 458, Strahm at 483 and Soto at 610. I, like Ryan, do not see the latter two getting much of the action, but I disagree on his allocation of saves between the other three. 

Kerkering did his collegiate pitching at South Florida (obligatory boo!) in both their rotation and pen but has done nothing but relieve in the Philadelphia system. He has struck out 86 in 60.2 innings of work as he rocketed through their system, pitching at all four full-season stops last year before getting to the big leagues late in the season. Kerkering is known for his awesome slider, but the upper 90s fastball velocity he's shown as a reliever is tough to overlook. The 122 Pitching+ score in the table is from the smallest of sample sizes, but our Fantasy Outlook for him mentions control issues and an overreliance on the slider, and even James Anderson's prospect rankings has him at 120. Finally, the Fangraphs prospect writeup for him gives him a poor command score and mentions concerns about his ability to throw strikes. 

Alvarado is essentially Kerkering from the left side, with a nasty slider of his own and the ability to push triple-digits with the fastball. Unlike Kerkering, Alvarado twice hit the injured list last season with arm issues and really didn't find his form until late in the season. Alvarado has also struggled to throw strikes throughout most of his career with a 13.2 percent walk rate and hasn't posted a single-digit walk rate since his rookie season in 2017. He has struck out 37 percent of the batters he's faced each of the past two seasons, but he also hasn't eclipsed 60 innings as a reliever since the 2018 season. In Alvarado, fantasy managers are dealing both with injury and performance concerns. 

Enter Hoffman. Hoffman has the best Stuff+ score in this picture and is coming off a season where his xwOBA trailed only Felix Bautista, Tarik Skubal, Josh Hader and Tanner Scott. Hoffman's slider is just as unhittable as the other two guys', but he also has the experience and durability the other two have not yet demonstrated. To me, Hoffman is the pitcher who should receive the majority of the saves here with Kerkering and Alvarado being used for late-inning matchup situations. 

Finally, we'll travel west to the north side of Chicago to look at what their closer situation is for this season.

I'll sum up the first two by posting this minute-long clip where I discussed this situation on The Sleeper and The Bust podcast on January 29th:

That said, I also refuse to write off Merryweather, who finally pitched a full season and looked good doing so, especially in the second half, when he recorded a 23.5 percent K-BB%. This is another area where I disagree with Ryan's dispersal of saves as Merryweather looked every bit of a closer late in the season even if the role didn't come his way. Should Alzolay have issues staying healthy again, I would be looking at Merryweather as the next man up here. Palencia's inclusion is for the deeper NL-only league plays because I cannot leave off a name with his stuff who also struck out 69 batters in 57.1 innings last season. 

We might gain some clarity in the coming weeks as camps finally open up for these situations, but for now, uncertainty creates opportunities for late-round values in drafts.