Closer Encounters: 2022 Closer Rankings

Finding reliable save sources in a fantasy baseball draft is no easy task, especially when closers are rising in ADP seemingly by the day. In the 37 NFBC Draft Champions leagues that wrapped up in January, an average of 11 closers were drafted by pick 90, which is the end of Round 6 in this 15-team format. Once the top 10 or so come off the board, it's tough to have confidence in any closer thereafter, especially when so much can happen between now and spring training that can affect their status or relief role. Free agency and trades have yet to resume thanks to the ongoing lockout, while injuries and roster announcements will flood our MLB News feed once we're well into spring. All should bring us more clarity when it comes to team hierarchies for saves, but until then, we're left to speculate on closer roles for roughly half the teams in the league.

With saves at a market premium, my hope is these initial 2022 closer rankings will help you reach your targets for the category throughout your drafts. I have included my save projection for each relief pitcher listed, but keep in mind these may differ from the RotoWire projection seen on our player pages. Also remember these rankings factor in skills such as strikeout rate, which is why you'll see someone like Devin Williams ranked higher than Michael Fulmer, even though Fulmer is projected for more saves.

Below the rankings, I've included several of my closer targets and fades for 2022. As always, you are welcome to share your thoughts in the comments section.

Stay tuned to our newly re-designed Closer Grid throughout the offseason for all the latest closer updates.

2022 Closer Rankings

TARGETS

Edwin Diaz, RP, Mets - You may still have a sour taste in your mouth if you drafted Diaz in 2019, but he was the highest-leveraged reliever in baseball last season. He rarely gave up hard contact, as his 21.3 percent hard-hit rate was fifth lowest among qualified relievers. This was a vast improvement over his 48.1 percent hard-hit rate in 2019, which was third highest. He also averaged a career-high 98.8 mph on his fastball, though his slider carried an astounding .119 XBA and .164 XSLG as his put-away pitch. Most important, Diaz maintained his ability to miss bats with a 12.8 K/9 and 16.5 SwStr%. Diaz is one of my favorite closer targets for a several reasons. First, he projects to be one of the few closers with more than 100 strikeouts. Second, the Mets have already signed several elite players in free agency and should be far more competitive than they were in 2021. This should result in more wins and more save chances for Diaz. Lastly, new Mets manager Buck Showalter tends to stick with a primary closer, especially during his teams' competitive seasons. Diaz might cost you a top 50 pick — his January NFBC Draft Champions ADP was 49.24 — but I believe he will give you a nice return on your investment.

Jordan Romano, RP, Blue Jays - Yes, there are risks tied to Romano that have warranted placement on several fade lists for 2022. For starters, he had surgery in November to repair a torn left meniscus after he pitched through the injury last season. There's also a possibility Toronto addresses its closer role through free agency or trade once the lockout ends, which would relegate Romano back to a more flexible high-leverage role. Personally, I'm more optimistic and think he will get the majority of Toronto's save chances in 2022 after proving he's more than capable of handle closing duties last season. After posting elite ratios with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate last year, I think Romano has the upside of a top-5 closer in the league and have ranked him accordingly. He could be a tremendous value at his recent 82.86 ADP compared to other closers being drafted among the top-90 picks.

Jorge Alcala, RP, Twins - Alcala is one of my favorite end-game targets for second-half saves in 2022 after he flashed his upside toward the end of last season. The 26-year-old right-hander posted a 0.96 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 24:3 K:BB in 18.2 innings after Aug. 1. What's even more impressive is he significantly improved his home-run rate, allowing just one long ball over the final two months after serving up nine during the first four. The fact Minnesota declined its half of Alex Colome's $5.5 million mutual option for 2022 leads me to believe the Twins are content heading up their late-inning mix with Alcala, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey. Rogers and Duffey will be free agents in 2023, and I expect Minnesota to trade both veterans if the team isn't competitive this year. In that scenario, which could happen well before the trade deadline or even before the season, look for the Twins to turn the reins over to Alcala in the ninth inning.

Dylan Coleman, RP, Royals -  Coleman is another late-round saves target of mine, particularly in 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. The 25-year-old made his big-league debut last September after compiling a 3.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, a 93:22 K:BB and a .186 batting average against in 57.2 innings between the Royals' Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Those eye-popping numbers lead me to believe he can benefit my ratios and strikeout totals over his first full season in the bigs, even if he isn't closing games for Kansas City right away. While Scott Barlow is the favorite to open 2022 as the Royals' primary closer, manager Mike Matheny is unafraid to use a committee and Coleman has closing experience after racking up seven saves in the minors last year. His performance as he navigates high leverage scenarios in the majors will dictate just how soon he enters that mix. 

FADES

Scott Barlow, RP, Royals - The expected emergence of Coleman is one of the reasons I'm fading Barlow this year, especially at his January 149.78 ADP. In that range of the draft, there are plenty of hitters I'd rather target, such as Rhys Hoskins, Franmil Reyes, Ty France or Lourdes Gurriel. While Barlow certainly has some skills befit of a closer, he has yet to post a WHIP less than 1.20 and there's likely to be some pullback on his 2.42 ERA, as indicated by an 83.1 percent left on-base rate, 3.37 xERA and 3.33 SIERA. Josh Staumont and Jake Brentz also remain in the mix for saves, so I've scaled back Barlow's projected to 13. This projection simply doesn't jive with where he's being drafted.

Joe Barlow, RP, Rangers - The less-heralded Barlow earned 11 saves in 12 chances for the Rangers last season while compiling a 1.55 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 innings. On the surface, those numbers look fantastic, especially for a rookie, but the 26-year-old out-performed his estimators by nearly two points (3.39 xERA, 3.44 FIP), and walks (3.7 BB/9) were a concern after he struggled with his command throughout the minors (5.8 BB/9). Texas recently invested more than $500 million in free-agent signings, and I doubt they want to enter 2022 with a closer who only has 29 innings of big-league experience. I believe the Rangers' Opening Day closer is not yet on the roster, which is why I'm fading Barlow altogether this draft season.

Dylan Floro, RP, Marlins - Floro earned 15 saves last season and has been a quality reliever over his six-year career, but, similar to Texas, I think Miami will be players for a free-agent closer once the lockout concludes. The Marlins are rumored to be players for Kenley Jansen, which makes sense to reunite the veteran closer with his former manager Don Mattingly. Even if that rumor doesn't come to fruition, Floro's skills better suit him for a setup role. On the plus side, he induced plenty of ground balls (49.2 percent), kept the ball inside the park (his 0.3 HR/9 was sixth-best among qualified relievers) while permitting just an 85.9 mph average exit velocity that ranked in the top 5 percent of the league. However, he isn't known for his strikeout prowess (23 percent) and his 9.3 percent walk rate was a glaring blemish in his profile. Floro should maintain a high-leverage role in 2022, but whether that's as a closer or setup man remains to be seen.

Carlos Estevez, RP, Rockies - Estevez currently slots in as the Rockies closer after recording 11 saves last year, but consider him a placeholder for now. Colorado reportedly wants to sign someone with extensive experience in the role and there are a handful of free-agent relievers on the market with 125-plus career saves. Estevez (23 career saves) does not have that type of experience, but could certainly mix in for ninth-inning duties on occasion. Stay tuned as this closer hierarchy is likely to change once the MLB lockout ends and free agency resumes.