AL FAAB Factor: Baseball Is Back Edition

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly. MLB may finally have a date for Opening Day and parameters for what rosters will look like, but there's still plenty of uncertainty regarding how teams will approach this most unusual season.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until baseball picks back up in earnest, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Justin Dunn , Mariners: Seattle GM Jerry DiPoto said Wednesday that the M's would likely use a six-man rotation to begin the shortened season, opening up a spot for Dunn. The 24-year-old had a rough introduction to the majors last year, walking nine batters in 6.2 innings, but his 158:39 K:BB in 131.2 innings for Double-A Arkansas highlights his potential. He might also be, along with Yusei Kikuchi, the pitcher closest to handling a regular workload when summer camp begins – reports this week suggest both hurlers have been throwing as many as 60 pitches against live batters in outings at the team's complex in Peoria.

Michael Fulmer, Tigers: The right-hander had been recovering from Tommy John surgery back in March 2019, but Fulmer is now cleared to resume full baseball activities and should be a normal participant in the team's summer camp. Still only 27, Fulmer hasn't offered big strikeout upside during his career so far, but he was a consistent source of ratios in 2016-17 prior to blowing out his elbow. He'll likely have his workload limited once play begins, whether in a six-man rotation or as a tandem with Daniel Norris in the fifth spot for the Tigers, but that should be true of any number of hurlers in this weird season.

Rich Hill, Twins: Speaking of guys who will have restricted workloads, Hill only threw 58.2 innings last year for the Dodgers and then missed spring training as he recovered from October elbow surgery, but the 40-year-old is expected to be healthy when summer camp begins. He'll fill a slot in a likely six-man rotation – even with Michael Pineda suspended, the Twins have the depth – but even in that scenario, Hill could still be limited to about five innings an outing before he gets pulled. The strikeouts will still be there, at least on a per-inning basis, but the veteran could find wins tough to come by unless the team decides to use an opener and shift those innings from him to later in the game.

Collin McHugh, Red Sox: Another injured veteran expected to be 100 percent when summer camp begins is McHugh. Signed late in the spring, the 33-year-old hadn't even started tossing a ball again when MLB shut down as he recovered from a non-surgical procedure done on his elbow in December. He was able to begin his throwing program in April though, and McHugh should be ready to give Boston some rotation depth it desperately needs with Chris Sale on the shelf. If he can repeat his 2017 performance – 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP 62:20 K:BB in 63.1 innings over 12 starts – he'll find a home on rosters even in shallower formats.

Patrick Sandoval, Angels: Back in spring training, Sandoval's rotation spot seemed contingent on Griffin Canning's health and how much the team wanted to push Shohei Ohtani on the mound out of the gate. Both those guys figure to be fully healthy when summer camp begins, but Sandoval still got a reprieve when manager Joe Maddon announced the Angels would use a six-man rotation, largely so he can keep Ohtani on a once-a-week pitching schedule. The 23-year-old southpaw stumbled to a 5.03 ERA in his big-league debut last year but also posted a 42:19 K:BB in 39.1 innings, and he managed a similarly encouraging K-rate at Triple-A, so the upside is still there in a consistent role.

Relief Pitcher

Austin Adams, Mariners: The right-hander with the wicked slider is fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, and Adams should be ready to join the battle for the M's closer job when summer camp begins. There was no clarity on the role in spring training, and things are even more chaotic now – any of Yoshihisa Hirano, Matt Magill, Carl Edwards Jr. or even a prospect like Joey Gerber could also see save chances – but Adams' 14.9 K/9 from last year could make him one of the favorites once he establishes he's back in form.

Daniel Mengden, Athletics: The right-hander underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in February, but Mengden should be fully recovered when summer camp begins. Where he fits on an A's staff that will be leaning heavily on youngsters like Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk remains to be seen, but Mengden will probably join Chris Bassitt in swing roles, hopping between the rotation and long relief as needed. Mengden posted solid numbers in that role in 2018, and the 27-year-old could prove to be a useful arm in deeper formats.

Catcher

Garrett Stubbs, Astros: A lot of organizations are going to find room for their No. 3 catchers on expanded rosters, but Stubbs could be the one with the most fantasy upside. Houston has already been trying him out at other positions – between Triple-A and the majors, he brief saw action in left field, right field and at second base last year – so he could become more of a utility player than a pure backstop, and Stubbs' .310/.382/.455 slash line over 84 Triple-A games in 2018 shows his upside at the plate. Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau also aren't exactly Hall of Fame competition for playing time at catcher, either. If Stubbs hits the ground running when plays starts up, the 27-year-old could force his way into a regular role.

Second Base

Nick Madrigal, White Sox: Madrigal's treatment by the White Sox remains curiously incongruent. While guys like Luis Robert get big-league contracts and are pencilled into big-league starting jobs before they've even played a big-league game, Madrigal continues to get treated like a can-miss prospect, and even under the current circumstances, GM Rick Hahn isn't guaranteeing him a spot on the active roster when the season begins, much less a starting job. Maybe the club just feels he needs different motivation, but given all the fantasy hype around the 23-year-old, it still seems odd. Madrigal is seen as a player who, at his peak, will lack power but could possibly compete for batting titles while racking up runs and stealing some bases from the top of the order. Counting on him to even sniff that peak in 2020 might be a mistake, though. 

Shortstop

Myles Straw, Astros: One of the worst ideas MLB has for this restart is their effort to shorten extra-inning games by having a runner start on second base to begin even half-inning from the 10th on. It's dumb, but it does open the door for speedy players like Straw to score some runs they otherwise wouldn't if they get deployed in that 'designated runner' spot. Otherwise, the 25-year-old is set for a utility role, and his experience on both the infield and outfield could lead to more playing time than anticipated, even on an Astros roster stacked with talent. Straw doesn't offer any power, but he's consistently hit for plus averages and swiped bases at a healthy clip throughout his career. In fact, I wonder what kind of odds people would give you if you suggested Straw will end up providing more fantasy value in 2020 than Madrigal...

Outfield

Aaron Hicks, Yankees: The oft-injured 30-year-old missed spring training while recovering from Tommy John surgery, one of the rare position players to need it, but it looks like Hicks could be able to handle his defensive duties when summer camp starts up. He reported this week that he's about 80 percent of the way through his throwing program, giving him about a month to finish it. If Hicks is able to reclaim his starting center field job, he could be a solid fantasy option – his breakout 2018 is still fresh in people's memories – but given his track record and the Yankees' outfield depth when everyone is fully healthy, he's also a likely candidate to lose playing time now and then as the team tries to keep him off the shelf.

Stephen Piscotty, Athletics: An intercostal strain right as spring training began shut Piscotty down before Cactus League play even began, but the 29-year-old is healthy again and champing at the bit for play to resume. Arguably no player will end up benefitting more from the shutdown than Piscotty, who's been trying to play through one injury or another since spring training 2019 but now might be 100 percent healthy for the first time in a long time. A return to his 2018 form could make him a relative bargain.