2024 MLB Predictions: RotoWire Staff Picks for Divisions, World Series and Awards

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

2024 MLB Predictions: RotoWire Staff Picks for Divisions, World Series and Awards

To celebrate Opening Day, I asked everyone involved in our MLB coverage to give me their picks for this year's division winners, pennant winners, World Series winners and major awards winners. I've broken down our picks for each race below, and you can find all 22 sets of responses I received at the bottom of the article. 

For some of the races, our spread of answers aligned quite well with the bookmakers' odds, which you can find at our MLB Futures and MLB Player Futures pages. For others, you'll find a fair amount of disagreement, starting rather dramatically with the first division on the list, the American League East.

American League East

The Yankees and Orioles are neck-and-neck at most sportsbooks per the AL East Odds, and the projected standings at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the Yankees as the most likely winner. Despite all that, only one person (me) was willing to pick the Evil Empire, with over three quarters of the group buying into young Orioles and expecting them to win their second straight division title. The Blue Jays and Rays, whose projected records are right there with the Orioles, received minimal support, though they do have twice as much support as the Bronx Bombers. 

American League Central

The AL Central odds paint the Twins as the clear favorites in the AL Central, and we more or less agree. However, it's interesting to note that all the dissenting votes went to the Tigers, rather than being spread out like they were in the AL East. The Guardians may have the second-best odds and sit second in the projected standings at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, but while a sizable minority thinks the up-and-coming Tigers will make the jump this season, no one was willing to say the same for Cleveland.

American League West

As with the other two divisions in the American League, roughly three quarters of the responders coalesced around a single favorite. Our clear preference for the Astros lines up with both the odds and the projections. Notably, though, just two of us were willing to back the defending World Series champions to win the division. The AL West odds have the Rangers as the likelier upset pick out west, but more members of our team think it's the Mariners who are the dark horse to back. 

National League East

This is the biggest blowout yet, though our team didn't quite hand this one unanimously to Atlanta. Jason Collette is willing to stand on an island and back the Phillies to pull off the upset, something they've managed to do in the last two postseasons despite trailing their rivals by 14 games in the regular season both years. The projected standings and NL East Odds have Atlanta winning by roughly the same amount this season, so it's no surprise that the rest of us all have them winning their seventh straight division title. Only one team (the Dodgers) is considered a bigger favorite to win its division.

National League Central

The NL Central might be the only interesting division race this season, at least if this poll and the NL Central odds are any indication. There's still a clear favorite, with the Cubs earning more than half of the votes, which seems notable given that they're second-favorites according to both the odds and the projections. But they don't come close to the 75 percent mark like the rest of the division favorites in this poll, and all four favorites had at least one backer. Jason Collette stands alone again by flying the flag for the Pirates, who easily the biggest underdogs to get a vote in this poll.

National League West

Did you really think this would be any different? Even with superstar addition Shohei Ohtani set for, at minimum, a distracted start to his time in blue, the Dodgers are the biggest favorite in any division according to the NL West odds and the only unanimous winner in our poll. The Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants have all built respectable rosters which would be among the favorites in either Central division, but the Dodgers are too far in front for them to have a chance in the West. 

American League Pennant Winner

None of us picked the Rangers to return to the World Series. None of us picked the Yankees, either, despite the fact that they sit second in both the AL Championship odds and the projections. Our clear favorite is the Orioles, with 12 of the 17 who picked them to win the division also taking them to win the pennant. The only other team with significant support is the Astros, though only six of the 16 who backed them for the AL West think they'll make it to the World Series. The Blue Jays, Mariners and Twins all had at least one backer as well.

National League Pennant Winner

Our staff has it as effectively a two-horse race in both leagues, though in this case, that aligns much more closely with the NL Championship odds and projections. The AL has several candidates worth stumping for, including a few none of us picked, but it's all Dodgers and Braves in the NL. That shouldn't come as a surprise as they're widely considered the two best teams in baseball. Among the underdogs, the Reds are the only team with even a single vote. John Venezia picked Cincinnati, the ninth-ranked team according to the odds, with zero votes for teams three through eight.

World Series Winner

"The field" still beats any individual team, but the Dodgers are the clear favorites in our staff poll, to a greater extent than they are in the 2024 MLB World Series Odds. Six of us have a Dodgers-Orioles World Series, with four picking the Dodgers, while all four who picked a Dodgers-Astros finale expect the Dodgers to get revenge for 2017. Atlanta comes in second, with four of the five Atlanta voters picking them to triumph over Baltimore. The Orioles got the most votes in the American League, while the Blue Jays come in second with two, the same number of votes they earned to win their division. None of us picked the Yankees, who sit fourth according to the books, while just one picked the Astros, who sit third.

American League MVP

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are the two favorites according to the AL MVP odds, but if you've read this far, you'll know that we're collectively lower on the Yankees than the books seem to be. Soto merely comes in second on our poll, while Judge didn't get a single vote. Instead, it's Julio Rodriguez who's the favorite among our staff, though a total of seven different candidates have support. Rodriguez is tied for the third-best odds with Corey Seager, who also didn't receive a vote. What may give Rodriguez the edge is that he has no star teammates to split the vote with. Soto has Judge, while Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have each other, as well as Alex Bregman, who received one vote.

American League Cy Young

Corbin Burnes is the betting favorite according to the AL Cy Young Odds, and he's our favorite, too, but by a narrow margin in both cases, which may be unexpected given our strong support for the Orioles as a team. Kevin Gausman sits second in the odds and has avoided the injured list to start the season, but his spring injury troubles nonetheless left him without a single vote. Instead, the next four favorites according to the odds all received multiple votes, with Framber Valdez coming in second with five. Grayson Rodriguez was the biggest long shot to earn a vote, with Ryan Boyer giving him the nod.

American League Rookie of the Year

The three favorites are relatively close in their respective AL Rookie of the Year odds, but it was a Wyatt Langford blowout in our poll. He may have only 44 career professional games under his belt at any level, but the 2023 fourth-overall pick has earned an Opening Day spot with his 1.137 OPS in spring training and earned over three quarters of the votes. Jackson Holliday still earned a vote (from Brad Johnson) despite being sent down to start the year, while the other four votes went to Langford's teammate Evan Carter, who showed us what he can do in September and October last year.

National League MVP

Seven different candidates received MVP votes in the NL, just as in the AL, but the votes were more concentrated at the top in the senior circuit. Consensus No. 1 fantasy pick Ronald Acuna is the leader, even with our staff preferring Los Angeles to Atlanta for the pennant. Acuna's presence left no votes for any of Atlanta's other hitters, though one vote (from Erik Siegrist) did go to his teammate Spencer Strider, who would become the first pure pitcher (i.e., excluding Shohei Ohtani) to win the award since Clayton Kershaw did it in 2014. Speaking of Ohtani, just one voter (Brad Johnson) was brave enough to back him, with Mookie Betts earning the rest of the Dodger votes, leaving none for Freddie Freeman. For what it's worth, all three Dodgers find themselves among the top five favorites per the NL MVP odds.

National League Cy Young

Unsurprisingly, Spencer Strider is the clear favorite for NL Cy Young, earning nearly two thirds of the votes and nearly five times as much support as any other candidate. He is also a heavy favorite per the NL Cy Young odds. Strider and Wyatt Langford were the only players to cross the 50 percent threshold in any of the award categories. The remaining eight votes were spread between five players, with Zack Wheeler and Tyler Glasnow the only pitchers to receive more than one. Max Fried, Zac Gallen and Logan Webb, who rank third through fifth in the odds, had no support in our poll.

National League Rookie of the Year

While the AL Rookie of the Year already looks like Wyatt Langford's to lose, there's little to separate the two NL favorites. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is comfortably the favorite based on the NL Rookie of the Year odds, but he barely edged out Jackson Chourio in our poll. If Yamamoto does win, he'll be the first winner who arrived from overseas (rather than the minors) since Shohei Ohtani in 2018. With Jung Hoo Lee and Shota Imanaga also in the NL, there's a good chance the winner does fall into that category, as those players have the advantage of arriving fully formed with years of high-level pro experience back home. Chourio is a big enough talent, however, that he was still able to earn eight votes despite the fact that he's just 20 years old and competing against grown men.

The Full Set of Picks